John Eatwell - Coping With Global Unemployment: Putting People Back to Work

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GLOBAL
Unemployment

GLOBAL
Unemployment

Loss of Jobs in the 90s

John Eatwell

editor

First published 1996 by M.E. Sharpe

Published 2015 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1996 Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notices
No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use of operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Global unemployment: loss of jobs in the 90s/
John Eatwell, editor.
p. cm.
Based on papers presented at the New School Conference on Unemployment, held at the New School for Social Research, New York, on Dec. 8, 1993.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-56324-581-7 (alk. paper).
ISBN 1-56324-582-5 (pbk.: alk. paper).
1. UnemploymentCongresses.
2. Unemployment (Economic theoryCongresses).
I. Eatwell, John.
HD5707.5.G58 1995
331.137dc20 959023
CIP

ISBN 13:9781563245824 (pbk)
ISBN 13:9781563245817 (hbk)

This book is based on papers presented at
the New School Conference on Unemployment,
which was held at
the New School for Social Research, New York,
on Thursday, December 8, 1993.

____________Contents____________

Jonathan Fanton

John Eatwell

Wynne Godley

Alice H. Amsden

Anwar M. Shaikh

David Schwartzman

David M. Gordon

Edward Nell

Thomas I. Palley

Lance Taylor

Robert Heilbroner

Tables

Figures

I am delighted to introduce this record of the New School Conference on Unemploymentan important initiative of the Economics Department of our Graduate Faculty. I am particularly pleased that this book includes the paper given by our guest speaker at the conference, Professor Wynne Godley of the Faculty of Economics of Cambridge University. In Britain, Professor Godley is particularly well known as one of the Seven Wise Men who act as independent economic advisers to the British government. There is no doubt in anyones mind that he achieved that position not because for more than twenty-five years he has been a persistent critic of British government policy. Rather, it is because he has been by far the most accurate forecaster of what the outcomes of policy would bea far more disturbing attribute.

At the end of 1993, the New York Times reported a fall in the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.8 percent to 6.4 percent. This fall was greeted with understandable pleasure by officials, commentators, and the general public. However, we must remember that the unemployment rate today, and for most of the 1980s, is almost double what it was throughout the 1960s. In the 1960s, conventional wisdom said that high unemployment was a thing of the past. Progress in economic theory and policy making, we thought, had taught us how to manage our affairs so as to avoid permanently the high levels of unemployment endured before the Second World War.

Experience in the last twenty years has shattered that comfortable illusion. Despite the vast number of new jobs that have been created in the United States, average unemployment rates have risen. And this is true in Western Europe as well. Today, unemployment rates in the European Community are at postwar highs.

Such high unemployment represents a dual problem. There is the economic cost of wasted resources to bear. And there is also a real threat to social stability. In Europe all the economic difficulties that stem from the breakup of the old Soviet empire have been exacerbated by the high levels of unemployment in the West. Hostility to refugees, growing racism, and social fragmentation, however they originate, are all fueled by unemployment.

At home in America, while no one would pretend that the linkages are simple, there can still be no doubt that unemployment contributes to crime, to ill health, to the alienation of young people, to the despair of older people. What is most disturbing is the feeling these days that nothing much can be done about unemployment. It is becoming part of the normal landscape of our lives, as are the problems it aggravates. Unemployment, and its attendant ills, are becoming almost acceptable.

Our society must reject that position. Unemployment is not a natural disaster like a hurricane or an earthquakesomething that happens to us out of the blue that society then deals with badly or well, as the case may be. Rather, unemployment is a social phenomenon. Millions of people out of work means, quite simply, that we have failed to organize our society in such a way that full employment is secured. Because it is a problem of our making, not a natural condition, there must be a solution, if only society is willing to take the steps necessary to find and implement it.

I do not have an easy remedy to recommend. Part of the task of the papers collected in this volume is to search for possible solutions. I do believe that hard choices will have to be made if our society wishes to approach full employmentthe decision to try may be the hardest choice of all, certainly the most important. It is an article of faith that the choices can be clarified, articulated, and judged.

I am heartened by the very fact of this volume and the conference from which it springs. It asserts that social science has a responsibility to confront the real problems of human society and to assist in the search for solutions. This was the very premise on which the New School for Social Research was founded in 1919. That premise is as pertinent today as it was then. There can be no more important task than bringing the skills and insights of social sciences to bear on the blight of unemployment and to move the question to the top of our societys agenda.

Jonathan Fanton, President
New School for Social Research

GLOBAL
Unemployment

_________1_________
Unemployment on a World Scale

John Eatwell

From 1950 to 1970 all the major industrial countries enjoyed employment levels at or near full employment. This was also a time in which world trade grew more rapidly than in any equivalent period before or since, and in which productivity growth (i.e., the absorption of technological change) was faster than at any time before or since. Inflation was also low relative to later experience. This was a Golden Age of western capitalism (Marglin and Schor, 1990). Over the same period there was a sustained improvement in economic performance in almost all of the third world, maintained in large part by the steady growth of demand emanating from the industrial countries.

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