William J. Olson - U.s. Strategic Interests in the Gulf Region

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US STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN THE GULF REGION

About the Book and Editor

An area vital to US interests, the Gulf has long been a volatile region. The vulnerability of Western interests is illustrated by such destabilizing influences as the political power of OPEC, the fall of the Shah of Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iran-Iraq War. The contributors to this volume examine the causes and effects of instability in the region and US policy response, focusing on patterns of regional conflict, Soviet interests, Islamic fundamentalism, and US long-term policy for facing threats to its interests. Discussing the options open to government planners, the contributors analyze the viability of alternative political and military strategies for the Gulf in the future.

Wm. J. Olson is a regional security affairs analyst at the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. He is the author of Britain's Elusive Empire in the Middle East and Anglo-Iranian Relations During World War I.

US STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN THE GULF REGION

edited byWm.J.Olson

First published 1987 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1987 Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
US strategic interests in the Gulf region.
Westview Studies in Regional Security
Includes index.
1. Persian Gulf RegionStrategic aspectsAddresses,
essays, lectures. 2. United StatesMilitary relations
Persian Gulf RegionAddresses, essays, lectures.
3. Persian Gulf RegionMilitary relationsUnited
StatesAddresses, essays, lctures. I. Olson,
William J., 1947 . II. Title: US strategic interests in the
gulf region. III. Series: Westview Studies in Regional Security.
UA830.U23 1987 355'.0330536 85-26983

ISBN 13: 978-0-3672-1254-4 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3672-1535-4 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429270031

To LMO & ASC and to the memory of AMO.

CONTENTS

Wm. J. Olson

PART I SOURCES OF INSTABILITY

1. PATTERNS OF REGIONAL CONFLICT AND US GULF POLICY

Lenore G. Martin

2. THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: AN ENDURING DANGER TO REGIONAL SECURITY

Augustus Richard Norton

3. SOVIET POLICY TOWARD THE PERSIAN GULF FROM THE OUTBREAK OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR TO THE DEATH OF KONSTANTIN CHERNENKO

Robert O. Freedman

PART II TYPES OF INSTABILITY

4. THE SOVIET NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN SECURITY

Richard B. Remnek

5. IDEOLOGICAL CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Jerrold D. Green

6. THE SAUDI ECONOMY IN TRANSITION: PROSPECTS AND BOTTLENECKS

Riad Ajami

PART III US POLITICAL-MILITARY RESPONSE

7. RAPID DEPLOYMENT AND THE REGIONAL MILITARY CHALLENGE: THE PERSIAN GULF EQUATION

Maxwell Orme Johnson

8. ASSISTANCE TO THE PERSIAN GULF REGION

Michael W.S. Ryan

9. THE LIMITS OF ACCESS: PROJECTING US FORCES TO THE PERSIAN GULF

Thomas L. McNaugher

10. FORCE FROM THE SEA: A MODEST PROPOSAL

Michael Vlahos

11. AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY FOR SOUTHWEST ASIA

Wm. J. Olson

1. PART I SOURCES OF INSTABILITY
   1. 1. PATTERNS OF REGIONAL CONFLICT AND US GULF POLICY
   2. 2. THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: AN ENDURING DANGER TO REGIONAL SECURITY
   3. 3. SOVIET POLICY TOWARD THE PERSIAN GULF FROM THE OUTBREAK OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR TO THE DEATH OF KONSTANTIN CHERNENKO
2. PART II TYPES OF INSTABILITY
   1. 4. THE SOVIET NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN SECURITY
   2. 5. IDEOLOGICAL CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE PERSIAN GULF
   3. 6. THE SAUDI ECONOMY IN TRANSITION: PROSPECTS AND BOTTLENECKS
3. PART III US POLITICAL-MILITARY RESPONSE
   1. 7. RAPID DEPLOYMENT AND THE REGIONAL MILITARY CHALLENGE: THE PERSIAN GULF EQUATION
   2. 8. ASSISTANCE TO THE PERSIAN GULF REGION
   3. 9. THE LIMITS OF ACCESS: PROJECTING US FORCES TO THE PERSIAN GULF
   4. 10. FORCE FROM THE SEA: A MODEST PROPOSAL
   5. 11. AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY FOR SOUTHWEST ASIA

Guide

1. CHAPTER 6
   1. Table A Saudi Oil Revenues
   2. Table B Saudi Arabia: Actual Public Spending and Income 1982-85
2. CHAPTER 7
   1. Figure 1 Area of Concern for US Rapid Deployment Forces in Southwest Asia
   2. Figure 2 Combat Forces Available to USCENTCOM
3. CHAPTER 8
   1. Figure 1 FMS Agreements FY 1975 - FY 1985 Constant FY 1975 Dollars
   2. Figure 2 Worldwide FMS Agreements FY 1982-1986 (EST)
   3. Figure 3 Arms Sales to Middle East

DOI: 10.4324/9780429270031-1

In March 1985, the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, hosted a two-day conference on US strategic interests in the Persian Gulf. The thrust of the conference was to take a long-term look at developments in the region that might influence US interests and to examine policy implications and make recommendations. A further theme of the conference was to look at regional events less in terms of an East-West perspective, which characterizes much of the literature on US policy in the Gulf region, and to focus more on the dynamics of the region itself. Hence, the majority of the papers in this volume stress the importance for US policy of shedding certain preconceptions and myths, and of developing responses and policies more in keeping with regional realities.

The continuing debate over the appropriate US role in any program of Gulf security, the long-term effects of a deteriorating US-Saudi relationship, the potential for radicalization in the region, the distinct possibility of a growing Soviet diplomatic presence, and the long-term potential for the continued and increased importance of Gulf oil for Western economies argue for coming to terms with the region itself, apart from an East-West confrontation.

part of the complexity of the modern world is the emergence of alternative centers of power and a maturing of regional subsystems as critical elements in international relations. US policy, still largely preoccupied with the Soviet threat, has not taken sufficient note of nor has it adequately accommodated itself to this changing reality. Thus, the United States could embark on a program of "strategic consensus" in the Middle East designed to link the United States and regional states in an anti-Soviet consensus. The US concern was not shared by the regional states, however, who perhaps recalled a similar policy of containmentbuilt around the Baghdad Pact that also ignored local realities and failed ignominiously.

There are numerous bilateral concerns between the United States and the various states of the region, and among these are sufficient grounds for mutually acceptable relations. Yet, US concern for and interest in the region tends to fluctuate wildly, reflecting either a self-perpetuating naivety about the region or the episodic nature of the US-policymaking process in dealing with non-Soviet issues. Given the fact that the construction of US foreign policy requires an intricate and at times arcane mediation process among conflicting, if not mutually exclusive, interests, within a decisionmaking system that is cumbersome and self-absorbed, it may be impertinent to expect more. Certainly, however, the situation demands more, and the issues and problems that US policy must cope with are no respecters of the all-too-deliberate and short-term methodology of US responses. With this in mind, the papers in this volume take a long view of the region and suggest policies for the long term.

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