Clark C. Abt - A Strategy for Terminating a Nuclear War

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A Strategy for Terminating a Nuclear War

Westview Special Studies

The concept of Westview Special Studies is a response to the continuing crisis in academic and informational publishing. Library budgets for books have been severely curtailed. Ever larger portions of general library budgets are being diverted from the purchase of books and used for data banks, computers, micromedia, and other methods of information retrieval. Interlibrary loan structures further reduce the edition sizes required to satisfy the needs of the scholarly community. Economic pressures on university presses and the few private scholarly publishing companies have greatly limited the capacity of the industry to properly serve the academic and research communities. As a result, many manuscripts dealing with important subjects, often representing the highest level of scholarship, are no longer economically viable publishing projectsor, if accepted for publication, are typically subject to lead times ranging from one to three years.

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About the Book and the Author

Avoiding a nuclear war, or ending one if avoidance fails, is an important but relatively unexplored aspect of nuclear doctrine. Dr. Abt examines the feasibility of antagonists' agreeing to exclude their "open cities" from nuclear targeting and to replace strategic bombardment with retaliatory invasion to create less of a hair-trigger deterrent. Critical net assessments by U.S. strategists and the effects of such a strategy on the Soviet Union and on U.S. allies are considered, along with problems implementation might pose. The author contends that both deterrence and the potential for limiting damage are strengthened by prewar plans for a nuclear ceasefire and stalemate short of holocaust.

Dr. Clark C. Abt is founder and president of Abt Associates Inc., a private social and economic policy research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His publications include Serious Games, The Evaluation of Social Programs (1979), and The Social Audit for Management (1977).

A Strategy for Terminating a Nuclear War

Clark C. Abt

First published 1985 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1985 by Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 85-40500
ISBN: 0-8133-7050-7

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-0847-5 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-5834-7 (pbk)

Contents

1. 2 A TERMINATION STRATEGY: RETALIATORY INVASION AND CITIES TARGETING EXCLUSION (RIACTE)
2. 3 CONCEPTS OF NUCLEAR WAR STRATEGY
3. 4 PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR WAR TERMINATION
4. 5 MILITARY ELEMENTS IN TERMINATION STRATEGY
5. 6 POLITICAL ELEMENTS AFFECTING TERMINATION STRATEGY
6. 7 RESPONSES OF ALLIED AND ADVERSARY NATIONS TO THE TERMINATION STRATEGY
7. 8 CURRENT PLANS AND CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR WAR TERMINATION
8. 9 SCRIPTS AND SCENARIOS FOR THE STRATEGY
9. 10 CRITICAL REACTIONS TO THE STRATEGY
10. 11 A NUCLEAR WAR SCENARIO WITH CONTROLLED TERMINATION

1. 2 A TERMINATION STRATEGY: RETALIATORY INVASION AND CITIES TARGETING EXCLUSION (RIACTE)
2. 3 CONCEPTS OF NUCLEAR WAR STRATEGY
3. 4 PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR WAR TERMINATION
4. 5 MILITARY ELEMENTS IN TERMINATION STRATEGY
5. 6 POLITICAL ELEMENTS AFFECTING TERMINATION STRATEGY
6. 7 RESPONSES OF ALLIED AND ADVERSARY NATIONS TO THE TERMINATION STRATEGY
7. 8 CURRENT PLANS AND CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR WAR TERMINATION
8. 9 SCRIPTS AND SCENARIOS FOR THE STRATEGY
9. 10 CRITICAL REACTIONS TO THE STRATEGY
10. 11 A NUCLEAR WAR SCENARIO WITH CONTROLLED TERMINATION

1. ii
2. iii

Guide

1. Diagram 2.1 Separation of Military and Civilian Target Systems by Bases' Remoted Location and Dispersal
2. Diagram 2.2 Main Axes of Potential Soviet Invasion of Western Europe
3. Diagram 2.3 The Last Phase
4. Table 3.1 Escalation Ladder of Rising Costs of Conflict
5. Table 3.2 Escalation of Payoffs and Risks in Limited Nuclear War
6. Table 5.1 Targets by Military Importance
7. Table 5.2 Targets by Military and Civilian Use
8. Diagram 5.1 Cities Survival and Forces Survival Through Base Dispersal and Remoting
9. Table 5.3 Specific Continental U.S. Bases Dispersal Possibilities
10. Table 6.1 Political Termination Factions
11. Table 6.2 Ten-Year Life Costs of the Termination Strategy
12. Table 6.3 Impact of Strategies on the Western Alliance
13. Table 7.1 Nuclear Attack Destruction
14. Table 8.1 Prewar Preparations for Termination Strategy
15. Table 8.2 Prospects for Termination Implementation
16. Table 8.3 Relative Current Capabilities for Termination
17. Table 8.4 United States and Soviet Termination Capabilities
18. Table 8.5 United States Termination Investments
19. Table 9.1 Responses to RIACTE and Bombardment Strategies

Why a book on a strategy for terminating a nuclear war? Is not a nuclear war itself "unthinkable"? Would not a nuclear war destroy any country engaging in such a war? My answer is "No, not necessarily." The possibility of nations substantially surviving a nuclear war does exist, but depends chiefly on effective termination strategy. Nuclear wars are likely to be enormously destructive, but if one were to break out and some scenarios of likelihood are presented here then the crucial issue does become one of termination. Perhaps equally importantly, a strategy of termination is also an effective form of prevention. And that is what this book is about.

This exploration of nuclear war termination strategy argues for replacing the threat of city bombardment with retaliatory invasion. The proposed termination strategy could strengthen deterrence of any nuclear war, and increase the chances of survival if deterrence fails. The strategy is intended for consideration by political and military leaders, professional strategists and policy scientists, and concerned citizens in all those nations under the threat of nuclear weapons.

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