Euel W Elliott - Issues and Elections: Presidential Voting in Contemporary America--A Revisionist View

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Issues and Elections

Issues and Elections

PRESIDENTIAL VOTING IN CONTEMPORARY AMERICAA REVISIONIST VIEW

Euel W. Elliott

First published 1989 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1989 by Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Elliott, Euel W., 1951 .
Issues and elections: presidential voting in contemporary
Americaa revisionist view / Euel W. Elliott.
p. cm.(Transforming American politics)
Includes index.
ISBN 0-8133-7633-5
1. PresidentsUnited StatesElection1972. 2. Presidents
United StatesElection1976. 3. PresidentsUnited States
Election1980. 4. PresidentsUnited StatesElection1984.
I. Title. II. Series.
JK524.E38 1989
324.973'092dc19 88-35705
CIP

ISBN13: 978-0-3670-1279-3 (hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-3671-6266-5 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429042652

Contents

1. 2 ISSUES AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
   1. Individual Voting Behavior
   2. Issues and Voting Behavior
   3. Reward-Punishment and Issue-Priority Voting
   4. Valence and Positional Issues
   5. Economic Voting
   6. Election Outcomes and Political Mandates
   7. Individual Voting Behavior and Election Outcomes
2. 3 THE 1972 ELECTION: DO LANDSLIDES PRODUCE MANDATES?
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1972
   2. Individual Voting and the 1972 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1972 Election Outcome
   4. Summary
3. 4 THE 1976 ELECTION: THE EMERGENCE OF ECONOMIC ISSUES
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1976
   2. Individual Voting and the 1976 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1976 Election Outcome
   4. 1972-1976 Panel Analysis
   5. Summary
4. 5 THE 1980 ELECTION: THE ECONOMY REVISITED
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1980
   2. Individual Voting and the 1980 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1980 Election Outcome
   4. Summary
5. 6 THE 1984 ELECTION: 1972 REPLAYED?
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1984
   2. Individual Voting and the 1984 Election Outcome
   3. Summary
6. 7 MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
7. 8 POSTSCRIPT: THE 1988 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

1. 2 ISSUES AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
   1. Individual Voting Behavior
   2. Issues and Voting Behavior
   3. Reward-Punishment and Issue-Priority Voting
   4. Valence and Positional Issues
   5. Economic Voting
   6. Election Outcomes and Political Mandates
   7. Individual Voting Behavior and Election Outcomes
2. 3 THE 1972 ELECTION: DO LANDSLIDES PRODUCE MANDATES?
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1972
   2. Individual Voting and the 1972 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1972 Election Outcome
   4. Summary
3. 4 THE 1976 ELECTION: THE EMERGENCE OF ECONOMIC ISSUES
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1976
   2. Individual Voting and the 1976 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1976 Election Outcome
   4. 1972-1976 Panel Analysis
   5. Summary
4. 5 THE 1980 ELECTION: THE ECONOMY REVISITED
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1980
   2. Individual Voting and the 1980 Election Outcome
   3. Issues and the 1980 Election Outcome
   4. Summary
5. 6 THE 1984 ELECTION: 1972 REPLAYED?
   1. Individual Voting Behavior in 1984
   2. Individual Voting and the 1984 Election Outcome
   3. Summary
6. 7 MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
7. 8 POSTSCRIPT: THE 1988 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Guide

Tables

1. 3.1 Most Important Issues in 1972
2. 3.2 Party Preferred in 1972 on Most Important Issues
3. 3.3 Reported Percentage Vote for Candidates in 1972 by Selected Most Important Issues
4. 3.4 Party Preferred on Most Important Issues in 1972 and Percentage Vote for Candidates
5. 3.5 Probit Estimates of Effects of Partisanship and Issue-Priority Variables on 1972 Vote
6. 3.6 Sources of Percent Change in the 1968-1972 Elections
7. 3.7 Turnover Table, 1968-1972 (1972 Voting Patterns by 1968 Voting Patterns)
8. 3.8 Effect of Issues in the 1972 Presidential Election
9. 3.9 Influence of Party Preferred on Issues in the 1972 Presidential Election
10. 4.1 Most Important Issues in 1976 (Cross Section)
11. 4.2 Most Important Issues in 1976 (Panel)
12. 4.3 Party Preferred in 1976 on Most Important Issues
13. 4.4 Reported Percentage Vote for Candidates in 1976 by Selected Most Important Issues
14. 4.5 Party Preferred on Most Important Issues in 1976 and Percentage Vote for Candidates
15. 4.6 Probit Estimates of Effects of Partisanship and Issue-Priority Variables on 1976 Vote
16. 4.7 Sources of Percent Change in the 1972-1976 Elections (1972-1976 Cross Section)
17. 4.8 Turnover Table, 1972-1976 (1976 Voting Patterns by 1972 Voting Patterns), Cross Section
18. 4.9 Effect of Issues in the 1976 Presidential Election
19. 4.10 Influence of Party Preferred on Issues in the 1976 Presidential Election
20. 4.11 Effect of Issues in the 1976 Presidential Election (Panel)
21. 4.12 Influence of Party Preferred on Issues in the 1976 Presidential Election (Panel)
22. 5.1 Most Important Issues in 1980
23. 5.2 Party Preferred in 1980 on Most Important Issues
24. 5.3 Reported Percentage Vote for Candidates in 1980 by Selected Most Important Issues
25. 5.4 Party Preferred on Most Important Issues in 1980 and Percentage Vote for Candidates
26. 5.5 Probit Estimates of Effects of Partisanship and Issue-Priority Variables on 1980 Vote
27. 5.6 Sources of Percent Change in the 1976-1980 Elections
28. 5.7 Turnover Table, 1976-1980 (1980 Voting Patterns by 1976 Voting Patterns)
29. 5.8 Effect of Issues in the 1980 Presidential Election
30. 5.9 Influence of Party Preferred on Issues in the 1980 Presidential Election
31. 6.1 Most Important Issues in 1984
32. 6.2 Party Preferred in 1984 on Most Important Issues
33. 6.3 Reported Percentage Vote for Candidates in 1984 by Selected Most Important Issues
34. 6.4 Party Preferred on Most Important Issues in 1984 and Percentage Vote for Candidates
35. 6.5 Probit Estimates of Effects of Partisanship and Issue-Priority Variables on 1984 Vote
36. 6.6 Partisan Identification and Voting Behavior as a Percentage of Total Electorate, 1972-1984
37. 6.7 Effect of Issues on Electoral Behavior, 1984
38. 6.8 Influence of Issues and Party Preferred on Electoral Behavior in 1984

Figures

1. 3.1 Trend in Nixon Gallup Approval Rating, 1969-1972
2. 3.2 Trends in Inflation and Unemployment, 1969-1972
3. 4.1 Trend in Ford Gallup Approval Rating, 1974-1976
4. 4.2 Trends in Inflation and Unemployment, 1973-1976
5. 5.1 Trend in Carter Gallup Approval Rating, 1977-1980
6. 5.2 Trends in Inflation and Unemployment, 1977-1980

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