Alpo M Rusi - Dangerous Peace: New Rivalry in World Politics

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Dangerous Peace

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Dangerous Peace

New Rivalry in World Politics

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AlpoM.Rusi

First published 1997 by Westview Press

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1997 Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Rusi, Alpo
Dangerous peace: new rivalry in world politics / Alpo M. Rusi.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. World politics1989 2. Geopolitics. I. Title.
D860.R87 1997
909.82'9dc21 97-13206
CIP

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-0930-4 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-5917-7 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429039164

To my son, Arto

Contents

1. 2 Collapsing Bipolarity
   1. The End of the Cold War
   2. Geopolitics Revisited
   3. Post-Cold War Geopolitics in Transition
   4. The Collapse of the Bipolar System
   5. Back to the Future or a New European Peace Order?
   6. A New World Order?
   7. Notes
2. 3 Emergence of the New Economic System
   1. Geoeconomics
   2. Geoeconomics and the Quality of Regionalism
   3. The Challenged American Economic Hegemony
   4. The Ascent of Economic Blocs
   5. Notes
3. 4 New Geopolitical Actors on the Rise
   1. Competing Predictions
   2. The Pacific Century: Rivalry or Cooperation Between China and Japan?
   3. Mastery of the Heartland: The Emergence of an "Orthodox" Russia
   4. The Middle Eastern Riddle
   5. The European Union: A Big Germany or a Semi-Federal Superpower?
   6. Notes
4. 5 Toward A New Global Rivalry
   1. The Global Geopolitical Transition
   2. Protectionist Pressures Under Globalization of Economy
   3. The Emergence of an Asian Power Game
   4. Notes
5. 6 The Global Order for the 21st Century: Positive Interrelationship or Conflictual Rivalry?
   1. A New Multipolar Order
   2. Prospects for Global Governance
   3. Prospects for a New Division of the World
   4. Notes
6. 7 Constructing the Real Future
   1. The Social Construction of the Real Future
   2. From Trends to New Realities in 2010
   3. Notes

1. 2 Collapsing Bipolarity
   1. The End of the Cold War
   2. Geopolitics Revisited
   3. Post-Cold War Geopolitics in Transition
   4. The Collapse of the Bipolar System
   5. Back to the Future or a New European Peace Order?
   6. A New World Order?
   7. Notes
2. 3 Emergence of the New Economic System
   1. Geoeconomics
   2. Geoeconomics and the Quality of Regionalism
   3. The Challenged American Economic Hegemony
   4. The Ascent of Economic Blocs
   5. Notes
3. 4 New Geopolitical Actors on the Rise
   1. Competing Predictions
   2. The Pacific Century: Rivalry or Cooperation Between China and Japan?
   3. Mastery of the Heartland: The Emergence of an "Orthodox" Russia
   4. The Middle Eastern Riddle
   5. The European Union: A Big Germany or a Semi-Federal Superpower?
   6. Notes
4. 5 Toward A New Global Rivalry
   1. The Global Geopolitical Transition
   2. Protectionist Pressures Under Globalization of Economy
   3. The Emergence of an Asian Power Game
   4. Notes
5. 6 The Global Order for the 21st Century: Positive Interrelationship or Conflictual Rivalry?
   1. A New Multipolar Order
   2. Prospects for Global Governance
   3. Prospects for a New Division of the World
   4. Notes
6. 7 Constructing the Real Future
   1. The Social Construction of the Real Future
   2. From Trends to New Realities in 2010
   3. Notes

Guide

This volume is the second in a series concerning change in the international system. The first volume, After the Cold War:Europe's New Political Architecture, was published in 1991. It was drafted in New York in 1989 and finalized in Helsinki in 1990. When I began my work, strategic studies and military aspects dominated the research field. I quickly recognized that a broader, more "dynamic" approach was needed to cope with ongoing revolutionary changes in world politics. There was no longer any real threat of a hegemonic war, yet the bipolar system was collapsing. The question was, what did this phenomenon contain? Instead of answering this question at the time, I could only discuss the most immediate political repercussions of the end of the Cold War, focusing on Europe, where the Cold War once began and where it ended.

The present volume continues the analysis by widening the scope of the research project beyond Europe. It also discusses the nature of the emerging multipolar world system and its most immediate security-political repercussions. Change in the international system is finally becoming understood. The conceptual simplicity of the bipolar order has vanished, replaced by complexity. We are heading towards a multipolar system as well as towards a less stable peace.

I have drafted this book both in Bonn, Germany, and Helsinki, Finland. These two cities are the capitals of two countries which have greatly benefitted from the end of the Cold War. A totally new security environment is emerging in Europe, which is now more a part of a global and interdependent world system than before. The stability based on nuclear deterrence has gone, and no new global security system has yet emerged. I try to draw preliminary conclusions by discussing the ongoing change in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms. My primary assumption, which I believe is borne out on the following pages, is that the international system is heading toward new rivalry among a number of politico-economic power centers.

I am grateful to the editor of my books, Mr. Richard Levitt, whose analytical skills and vision have greatly contributed to the success of this project. Riku Warjovaara of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs provided invaluable help, and special thanks go to international relations specialist Jukka Salovaara, who has assisted me throughout the drafting process. Without many discussions with Jukka, I would not have reached the goal.

Alpo M. Rusi

Introduction

DOI: 10.4324/9780429039164-1

"The communities of mankind, like every human achievement and contrivance, are subject to endless variety and progression."

-Reinhold Niebuhr

"The international system of the 21st century will contain at least six major powers: the United States, Europe, China, Japan and probably India, as well as a multiplicity of medium-sized and smaller countries."

-Henry A. Kissinger

"Of the eight billion people expected to populate the earth by 2020, five billion will live in Asia, and of this, one billion will reside in 50 cities with more than 20 million inhabitants each"

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