Heiko Karl Ital - The Kosovo War: A Strategy of Transformative Realism

2021 Heiko Karl Ital

Verlag und Druck: tredition GmbH, Halenreie 40-44, 22359 Hamburg

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1.1 Why Investigate the Puzzle of European Security?

1.2 Europeanization or Germanization of the Western Balkans?

1.3 Key Aspects of the Puzzle to Be Solved

1.4 Research Questions and Research Hypotheses

1.5 Methodology, Sources and Theoretical Contribution

2. Realism as Theoretical Background

2.1 Critical Literature Review

2.1.1 Critique of Realism: A Useful Tool for Analyzing European Integration?

2.1.2 The Prospects for Preserving Peace in Europe

2.1.3 Absolute vs. Relative Gains, Unit Level vs. Systems Level Approaches

2.1.4 Germany and the New European Order

2.1.5 Restructuring the Western Balkans and the Role of Germany

2.1.6 Kosovo, Serbia and the Hybrid External-internal Security Environment

2.2 The Puzzle of the Europeanization of Kosovo

2.2.1 The Western Balkans Peace Process from a Theoretical Perspective

2.2.2 Grasping the Western Balkans' Distinctiveness

2.2.3 Whose Concept to be Implemented, which Role for Germany?

2.2.4 Which Explanatory Power Does Realism Possess and which Realism?

2.3 Realism as Theoretical Foundation

2.4 How to Make Use of Realist Thought: Prediction, Explanation or Prescrip9on?

2.4.1 Realism under Attack: At Odds with European Integration?

2.4.2 Realisms Reply

2.4.3 International Law above National Interests?

2.4.4 Balancing and Bandwagoning: A Matter of Debate

2.4.5 Balancing and Bandwagoning: Flexibility of Classical Realism

2.4.6 Bandwagon Europe: A Serbian Miracle?

2.5 European Integration and the Security Dilemma

2.5.1 The Security Dilemma and the Absolute vs. Relatve Gains Problem

2.5.2 Refinements: Balances of Threats and Interests

2.5.3 Status Quo vs. Revisionist Powers

2.6 Realism and Understanding European Integration

2.6.1 A Realist Analysis of EU Security Policy What Is It About?

2.6.2 Excluding Realism from European Integraton

2.6.3 Obstacles to Integraton: No Ever Closer Union

2.6.4 A Realist View: The Two Layers of Integraton

2.6.5 Temporary Arrangements vs. Irreversibility

2.6.6 Germanys Interests and Policy Approaches in the Western Balkans

2.6.7 Low Likelihood of Common European Defense

2.6.8 Obstacles to a Common Defense Identty

2.6.9 Illusion of Coherence: European Integraton and the Refugee Crisis

2.7 Does One Realism Serve Best?

2.7.1 Structural, Classical and Neoclassical Views

2.7.2 Realist Perspectves on NATOs and EUs Transformaton

2.7.3 Realist Perspectves on Germany in Europes Power Equaton

2.8 Liberalism and Other Contending Theoretical Approaches to European Integration

2.8.1 Unexpected Support: Liberal Intergovernmentalism (LI) and European Security

2.8.2 Ratonalism vs. Social Constructvism as Explanatory Tools

2.9 Realism and Liberalism: Searching for Common Ground

2.10 Institutions of European Security Policy

2.10.1 Origins of the CFSP: Security Policy in Maastrichts Second and Third Pillars

2.10.2 Missions as Central Purpose of Security-related EU Insttutons

2.10.3 Enlargement and Transformation

2.11 Basic Foreign Policy Orientations of Relevant Actors

2.11.1 German View

2.11.2 United Germanys Foreign Policy: Looking forward while Coping with the Past

2.11.3 Europeanists, Euroskeptics and European Security: Germany in Search of a Role

2.11.4 Germanys Reorientation toward Out-of-area Engagements

2.11.5 French View

2.11.6 American View

2.11.7 Political Concepts for Dealing with Reunified Germany after 1990

2.11.8 Germany, the Awkward Great Power? Suspicions and Incertitudes

2.11.9 View on Germany: The Case for Tacit Containment

2.11.10 Germany as Manager of Transformation and Emerging Security Provider

3. Nation-building in Kosovo by Germany and the EU

3.1 Framework of the Kosovo Conflict

3.1.1 The Outbreak of the Kosovo War

3.1.2 The Geopolitical Background

3.1.3 The Transformation of Kosovo and the Role of Germany

3.1.4 From Peace Enforcement to Nation-building

3.1.5 Post-Kosovo: Germany Aspires to a Leading Role

3.2 Background: The Kosovo Question and its Historical Context

3.3 Developments from 1990-2016: Nation-building in Kosovo before and after Independence

3.3.1 Pacifying and Reorganizing Kosovo

3.3.2 Defusing the Kosovo Crisis: Belated Action

3.4 The Roles of Germany, the EU and NATO in Kosovo

3.4.1 Germanys National Interests regarding Kosovo and the Western Balkans

3.4.2 Transformation of Kosovo: Germany's distinct Contribution

3.4.3 The Multilateral Approaches to Kosovo: Mixed Results

3.5 Kosovo: Progress in Conflict Resolution

3.5.1 Coping with Serb Obstruction Tactics

3.5.2 At a Snail's Pace: Getting Kosovo on Track toward EU Accession

3.6 Developments in Bosnia-Herzegovina

3.6.1 Current Situation

3.6.2 Persistent Obstacles

3.7 From War to Cooperation: Changing Relations with Serbia

3.7.1 Belated Transformation and the Belgrade's Endgame

3.7.2 The Decade after Miloevi: Small Steps, no Return

3.8 Germanys Strategy and specific Contribution to the Mission

4. Conclusion and Outlook

4.1 Answering the Research Questions

4.2 European and German Security Policy Results and Assessment

4.3 The EU as a Pacifier and the Role of Germany

4.4 Theoretical Contribution: An Outline of Transformative Realism

4.5 Limitations

References

Introduction: United Germany, European Security and the Western Balkans

1.1 Why Investigate the Puzzle of European Security?

Does it make sense to investigate a particular puzzle of European security policy, with Germany at its center, on the base of realism? It does, when expectations of an ever-closer union which harmoniously integrates Europe and is destined for perpetual peace are left aside and diverging national interests are taken as analytical ground to explain outcomes of interference, integration, transformation and imbalances. Security policy, to be seen as the whole range of policies involving internal, crossborder and external security, defense and the questions of war and peace, highlights the ECs (renamed EU in 1993) character as a compromise in motion. States have deepened integration when a common stance emerged; however, security matters have been very sensitive and far from a comprehensive project despite becoming a multifaceted project with integrated areas of security scattered on the security landscape as such. Disagreements have amplified with the substantial expansions (1995, 2004, 2007, 2013), adding a further 16 states to the Union in 21 years. A greater rift between them has emerged, creating bigger gaps among those prioritizing European unity, those favoring the transatlantic link, and those moderate states reconciling both orientations. In contrast, the flaws in the Unions strategic equation have remained the same because no additional great powers have joined. France holds the far greatest military power and prestige of the Europhiles; Britain grants itself numerous exemptions in non-security matters and rejects any replacement of NATOs collective defense core by the EU. Germany stands in between and possesses more potential power but for the time being is hindered by treaty obligations like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and by what are consequences of Nazi Germanys occupation and extermination policies. Its security and reputation remain tied to its multilateral integration, as to a kind of dependence that has to be communicated as accepted voluntarily.