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Gautam Mukunda - Picking Presidents: How to Make the Most Consequential Decision in the World

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Gautam Mukunda Picking Presidents: How to Make the Most Consequential Decision in the World
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Celebrated leadership expert and political scientist Gautam Mukunda provides a comprehensive, objective, and non-partisan method for answering the most important question in the world: is someone up to the job of president of the United States?
In Picking Presidents, Gautam Mukunda sets his sights on presidential candidates, proposing an objective and tested method to assess whether they will succeed or fail if they win the White House. Combining political science, psychology, organizational behavior, and economics, Picking Presidents will enable every American to cast an informed vote.
In his 2012 book Indispensable, which all but predicted the Trump presidency, Mukunda explained how both the very best and very worst leaders are unfilteredoutsiders who take power without the understanding or support of traditional elites. Picking Presidents provides deep analysis of filtered and unfiltered presidents alike, from failed haberdasher and skillful president Harry Truman, to the exceptionally well-qualifiedand ultimately reviledJames Buchanan; from Andrew Johnson, who set civil rights back by a century, to Theodore Roosevelt, who evaded party opposition to transform American society. Picking Presidents lays out a clear framework that anyone can use to judge a candidate and answer the all-important question: are they up to the job?

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Picking Presidents Picking Presidents HOW TO MAKE THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL - photo 1
Picking Presidents
Picking Presidents
HOW TO MAKE THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL DECISION IN THE WORLD

Gautam Mukunda

Picture 2

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS

University of California Press

Oakland, California

2022 by Gautam Mukunda

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Mukunda, Gautam, author.

Title: Picking presidents : how to make the most consequential decision in the world/Gautam Mukunda.

Description: Oakland, California : University of California Press, [2022] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2021060596 (print) | LCCN 2021060597 (ebook) | ISBN 9780520379992 (cloth) | ISBN 9780520977037 (ebook)

Subjects: LCSH : PresidentsUnited StatesElection.

Classification: LCC JK 524 . M 85 2022 (print) | LCC JK 524 (ebook) | DDC 324.973dc23/eng/20220308

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021060596

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021060597

Manufactured in the United States of America

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

To Eva Mariathe love of my life. Your support made finishing this book possible. Your love made my life complete.

Presidents are selected, not elected.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt

No real-world human being brings to the U.S. presidency the range of attributes necessary for full success in the job.

James Fallows

Nothing comes to my desk that is perfectly solvable. Otherwise, someone else would have solved it.

President Barack Obama, to Michael Lewis

Contents
List of Tables and Figure
TABLES

A.1.

A.2.

A.3.

FIGURE

A.1.

Preface

I decided to write this book a few days after the 2016 election, prompted by a friend asking if I had a time machine. My first book, Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter, had come out four years earlier. It proposed an answer to an age-old questiondo individuals make history, or are historical outcomes all just the product of larger impersonal forces? I found that most of the time, individual leaders didnt matter. Most leaders are organizational productsthey have risen through the ranks and been evaluated by elites. Theyre basically reflections of their context, and so largely interchangeable with any number of other people who could have been in the same situation. That was the conventional view in social science, and its usually right.

Sometimes, however, individual leaders can have a huge impact. Some leaders take power from the outside, or over the opposition of elites. Such leaders can be very different from all the other people who could have risen to power and make choices no one else would have. Because they are unique, these choices would tend to be either very successful or disastrous. This wasnt just an academic exercise. This describes historical leaders ranging from Abraham Lincoln to Adolf Hitler. And, of course, it also describes Donald Trump.

Being able to predict that a leader will be extraordinarily good or bad is interesting, but it would be far more practically useful if we could predict which. In Indispensable I briefly suggested that leaders with a variety of traits would be very likely to fail and were therefore not worth the risk. The examples of such traits I chose to highlight were personality disorders like narcissism and sociopathy, incompetent or risk-prone managerial styles, out-of-the-mainstream ideologies, and unearned advantages (like inherited wealth). Four years later, the United States of America elected someone who seemed like he had stepped out of the pages of my book.

Perhaps no figure in modern American history has inspired a wider variety of assessments than Trump. I, like many, viewed his candidacy with alarm, and was enormously pessimistic about the likely impact of his administration. Yet, as I noted in articles and interviews during the campaign, my work also kept open the possibility that he would be a brilliantly successful president. I needed a better way to be able to predict the outcomenot just for him, but for anyone who seeks the presidency. I needed to be able to answer the questioncan he or she do the job? And I wasnt the only person. Every American does.

This book is my attempt to give everyone who reads it the ability to answer that questionbased not on partisan preferences or gut feelings, but on the best research in social science and history. Whatever your politics, if youve ever wondered about what it takes to succeed as president of the United States, this book is for you.

Acknowledgments

First and most importantly, of course, I need to thank my wife, Eva Maria Janerus. We first met when this books manuscript was in its final stages, and it was her support that got me through the long process from manuscript to publication. Along with Eva Maria, I need to thank Rudy, the Worlds Greatest Dog, who graciously agreed to allow me to join the family as long as I became his Emotional Support Human. This books final revisions were made with Rudy in my lap insisting that both hands are meant for petting, not typing.

I also need to thank my wonderful editor, Tim Sullivanthis is the second time weve done a book together, and I couldnt ask for a better thought partner. Equally, I must thank my amazing agent, Jim Levine, who fought for this book far more than I could ever have asked him to.

Many others were of great assistance during the process of researching and writing this book. Fareed Zakaria originally suggested that this research question made more sense as a book than as an article (my original intention). Daniel Summers-Minette was critical to doing the Monte Carlo analysis, and J. Chappell Lawson made excellent suggestions about the other statistical analyses. Clayton Christensen provided invaluable mentorship and encouragement for fifteen yearswithout him, I doubt I would have been able to push this (or many other) projects through to completion.

Thomas LeBien was of great assistance in shaping early drafts of this book. Dylan Rem wrangled footnotes superbly, far exceeding what anyone could expect from someone his age. The entire faculty support team at Schwarzman College helped with some of the initial research. John Dickerson pushed my thinking during a series of interviewsI hope that I helped his book as much as he helped mine.

Julie Battilana, Hannah Riley Bowles, and David Gergen greatly sharpened my analysis and gave me a home at the Kennedy Schools Center for Public LeadershipI owe them enormous thanks. Thomas Friedman, Nitin Nohria and Samuel Popkin provided much useful advice at various stages of the process, as did Tsedal Neeley, Rebecca Henderson, Ken Oye, and David Moss. Mike Tushman and Joshua Margolis put long hours into helping me bridge the (enormous) gap between political science and organizational theory, as did Lakshmi Ramarajan, Ryan Raffaelli, and Boris Groysberg.

I would also like to thank the team at University of California Press for all the work they did converting a manuscript into a book in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Francisco Reinking, my production editor, Ben Alexander, my copy editor, and Jen Burton, my indexer, all came through time and time again.

Finally, I need to thank Eva Marias parents, Ingolf and Eva, for so generously welcoming me into their family, and my parents, Ram and Meera, for a lifetime of support. No one could ask for better in-laws, and no one could imagine better parents. I will be forever grateful.

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