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Camille Morvan - An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemans Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

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Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemans 1974 paper Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics where Tversky and Kahnemans work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of behavioral economics.

The paper investigates human decision-making, specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers, Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from heuristics and biases mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift, automatic decisions, often usefully and correctly, but occasionally to our detriment.

The papers huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills expressed in Tversky and Kahnemans concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later, the two psychologists definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking.

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CONTENTS

Copyright 2017 by Macat International Ltd 2413 Coda Centre 189 Munster Road - photo 1

Copyright 2017 by Macat International Ltd

24:13 Coda Centre, 189 Munster Road, London SW6 6AW.

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The ePublication is protected by copyright and must not be copied, reproduced, transferred, distributed, leased, licensed or publicly performed or used in any way except as specifically permitted in writing by the publishers, as allowed under the terms and conditions under which it was purchased, or as strictly permitted by applicable copyright law. Any unauthorised distribution or use of this text may be a direct infringement of the authors and the publishers rights and those responsible may be liable in law accordingly.

The ePublication is protected by copyright and must not be copied, reproduced, transferred, distributed, leased, licensed or publicly performed or used in any way except as specifically permitted in writing by the publishers, as allowed under the terms and conditions under which it was purchased, or as strictly permitted by applicable copyright law. Any unauthorised distribution or use of this text may be a direct infringement of the authors and the publishers rights and those responsible may be liable in law accordingly.

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Cover illustration: Etienne Gilfillan

Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data is available upon request.

ISBN 978-1-912303-68-7 (hardback)

ISBN 978-1-912128-94-5 (paperback)

ISBN 978-1-912282-56-2 (e-book)

Notice

The information in this book is designed to orientate readers of the work under analysis, to elucidate and contextualise its key ideas and themes, and to aid in the development of critical thinking skills. It is not meant to be used, nor should it be used, as a substitute for original thinking or in place of original writing or research. References and notes are provided for informational purposes and their presence does not constitute endorsement of the information or opinions therein. This book is presented solely for educational purposes. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged to provide any scholarly advice. The publisher has made every effort to ensure that this book is accurate and up-to-date, but makes no warranties or representations with regard to the completeness or reliability of the information it contains. The information and the opinions provided herein are not guaranteed or warranted to produce particular results and may not be suitable for students of every ability. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, damage or disruption arising from any errors or omissions, or from the use of this book, including, but not limited to, special, incidental, consequential or other damages caused, or alleged to have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the information contained within.

CONTENTS

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Three allow us to fully understand a problem; three more give us the tools to solve it. Together, these six skills make up the PACIER model of critical thinking. They are:

ANALYSIS understanding how an argument is built

EVALUATION exploring the strengths and weaknesses of an argument

INTERPRETATION understanding issues of meaning

CREATIVE THINKING coming up with new ideas and fresh connections

PROBLEM-SOLVING producing strong solutions

REASONING creating strong arguments

To find out more, visit WWW.MACAT.COM.

Critical Thinking and Judgment under Uncertainty

Primary critical thinking skill: INTERPRETATION

Secondary critical thinking skill: ANALYSIS

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemans 1974 paper Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics where Tversky and Kahnemans work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of behavioral economics.

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