Steve Tsang - If China Attacks Taiwan: Military Strategy, Politics and Economics

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IF CHINA ATTACKS TAIWAN

This book analyzes the issues that Chinese policy makers would have to consider if they were to decide to attack Taiwan. It explains and analyzes the driving forces behind the methods and the consequences of China using force, a prospect that has become greater following the return of President Chen Shui-bian to power in Taiwan in 2004.

As the reality is that there can be no real winner in such an eventuality and the consequences would be dire for East Asia as a whole, whether China will use force will depend ultimately on how its policy making apparatus assesses the prospect of US intervention, and whether its armed forces can subdue Taiwan and counter US military involvement, as well as on its assessment of the likely consequences.

Written by leading academics and government policy makers including former military officers and diplomats, this volume will appeal not only to scholars and students working on China and Chinese foreign policy, but also to policy makers and journalists interested in Chinas rise and its defense policy, Taiwans security, regional stability, and US policy toward China and the East Asia region.

This book will be essential reading for students of Chinese politics, strategic studies, Asian security and international relations in general.

Steve Tsang is Louis Cha Fellow and Reader in Politics at St Antonys College, Oxford University. He is the author or editor of nine books, the most recent of which are The Cold Wars Odd Couple (2006), Peace and Security Across the Taiwan Strait (2004) and A Modern History of Hong Kong(2004).

ASIAN SECURITY STUDIES

Series Editors: Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University,
Bloomington and Andrew Scobell, US Army War College

Few regions of the world are fraught with as many security questions as Asia. Within this region it is possible to study great power rivalries, irredentist conflicts, nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation, secessionist movements, ethnoreligious conflicts and inter-state wars. This new book series will publish the best possible scholarship on the security issues affecting the region, and will include detailed empirical studies, theoretically oriented case studies and policy-relevant analyses as well as more general works.

CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

Alternate Paths to Global Power

Marc Lanteigne

CHINAS RISING SEA POWER

The PLA Navys Submarine Challenge

Peter Howarth

IF CHINA ATTACKS TAIWAN

Military Strategy, Politics and Economics

Edited by Steve Tsang

CHINESE CIVILMILITARY RELATIONS

The Transformation of the Peoples Liberation Army

Edited by Nan Li

THE CHINESE ARMY TODAY

Tradition and Transformation for the Twenty-first Century

Dennis J.Blasko

IF CHINA ATTACKS TAIWAN

Military strategy, politics and economics

Edited by Steve Tsang

LONDON AND NEW YORK

First published 2006
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016

Transferred to Digital Printing 2006

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2010.

To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledges collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.

2006 Steve Tsang

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested

ISBN 0-203-08741-0 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 10: 0-415-380189 (hbk)

ISBN 13: 978-0-415-38018-8 (hbk)

ISBN 10: 0-415-40785-0 (pbk)

ISBN 13: 978-0-415-40785-4 (pbk)

Taylor & Francis Group is the Academic Division of T&F Informa plc.

TO EDGAR AND ISOBEL JENKINS

CONTENTS

STEVE TSANG

MAOCHUN YU

RICHARD BUSH

JONATHAN D.POLLACK

RICHARD D.FISHER JR

KENNETH W.ALLEN AND JEFFREY M.ALLEN

BERNARD D.COLE

BERNARD D.COLE AND VALRIE NIQUET

TAI MING CHEUNG

YONG DENG

JING HUANG

ILLUSTRATIONS

Tables

6.1	Comparing recent American air campaigns
8.1	Amphibious ships
8.2	Yuting-class LST
8.3	Yukan-class LST
8.4	Yudeng-class LCM
8.5	Yudao-class LCM
10.1	Traditional power politics and Chinas new strategy of status advancement
11.1	Chinas top ten import sources
11.2	Chinas top ten export markets

Figures

6.1	Spatial comparison of Iraq with the Nanjing, Jinan, and Guangzhou Military Regions
6.2	Airspace over the Taiwan Strait
6.3	Chinese airfields within 800 km of Taiwan
8.1	The Normandy Landing
8.2	Superimposing the Normandy landing across the Taiwan Strait

CONTRIBUTORS

Jeffrey M.Allen is a student at George Mason University.

Kenneth W.Allen is a Senior Analyst at the CNA Corporation, where he focuses on Chinese military issues. Previously, he was a senior analyst at the Henry L.Stimson Center, Executive Vice-President of the US-Taiwan Business Council, and served twenty-one years in the US Air Force, including assignments in Taiwan, Berlin, Japan, Hawaii, Washington DC, and China. His main publications include Chinas Air Force Enters the 21st Century (RAND, 1995) and numerous articles in edited volumes and learned journals.

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