David Reese - The Prospects for North Korea Survival

David Reese

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International Institute for Strategic Studies 1998

First published November 1998 by Oxford University Press for
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Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data

ISBN 0-19-922379-3

ISSN 0567-932X

Since its division in 1945, the Korean Peninsula has endured war in 195053 and faced the constant threat of further conflict between North and South. Although the end of the Cold War has not eased this hostility, the Soviet Unions demise has shifted the Peninsulas balance of power further in South Koreas favour. The Soviet Unions collapse ended Moscows long-standing support for Pyongyang and fatally weakened the Norths already declining economy. This paper examines North Koreas circumstances and its prospects for survival. The regime is increasingly embattled, and its options are diminishing. It is likely to fall, but the process could be lengthy and could damage regional stability.

North Koreas economic crisis is so severe that the economy cannot be sustained without outside help. The countrys only hope of emerging from the crisis is fundamental reform, but the regime appears unwilling and sometimes unable to undertake it. The Norths problems began in the 1960s, when heavy defence spending and other economic distortions laid the foundations for the countrys current difficulties. The loss of Soviet direct aid and the end of soft trade terms, compounded by inclement weather which has led to food shortfalls, mean that, since 1990, the Norths economy has been losing ground. Lack of information makes accurate measurement impossible, but the economy is estimated to have contracted by more than 50% between 1992 and 1996. The most obvious manifestation of crisis has been the regimes inability to feed its people: since 1995, hundreds of thousands may have died of starvation and malnutrition-related diseases. There is no reliable basis for a more accurate assessment of the food situation.