Progressive Management - The Future of the Ballistic Missile Submarine Force in the Russian Nuclear Triad: SSBN Force, Delta, Typhoon, Borey Subs, ICBM and Cruise Missile Competition, ALCM, Topol, Bombers, Bear, Blackjack

The Future of the Ballistic Missile SubmarineForce in the Russian Nuclear Triad - SSBN Force, Delta, Typhoon,Borey Subs, ICBM and Cruise Missile Competition, ALCM, Topol,Bombers, Bear, Blackjack

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Progressive Management

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CONTENTS

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Richard T. Lesiw

Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., Eckerd College, 2000

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ABSTRACT

This thesis analyzes the current status ofthe Russian Federation's ballistic missile submarine force. Itreviews the history of the ballistic missile submarine force, itscurrent status, and the implementation of plans currently inprogress and as well as the advantages and disadvantages ofmaintaining a ballistic missile submarine force. This thesis alsoassesses the other two legs of the nuclear triad - theintercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and long range bomberaircraft. The status of these two forces and their operationaladvantages and disadvantages are compared with those of theballistic missile submarine force. Also examined are the financialand political factors that may affect the prospects of theballistic missile submarine force. This includes arms controltreaties that may affect the force structure. Current andprospective energy prices suggest that the economy of the RussianFederation will be able to provide long term financing for theballistic missile submarine force and Moscow's other strategicnuclear forces. This thesis concludes that the ballistic missilesubmarine force is a vital part of the Russian Federation's nucleartriad and will probably be maintained over the next 15 years andbeyond.

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CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

A. INTRODUCTION

B. MAJOR QUESTIONS AND ARGUMENTS

C. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES.

CHAPTER II

THE BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBMARINE FORCE

A. HISTORY OF THE SSBN FORCE

B. CURRENT STATUS OF THE RUSSIAN SSBNFORCE

1. Service Life of Submarines

2. Project 667BDR (Delta III) ClassSubmarines

3. Project 667BDRM (Delta IV) ClassSubmarines

4. Project 941 (Typhoon) Class Submarines

5. Project 955 (Borey) Class Submarines

C. CURRENT PATH OF THE RUSSIAN SSBN FORCE

D. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF BALLISTICMISSILE SUBMARINES

1. Advantages

2. Disadvantages

CHAPTER III

THE COMPETITION

A. ICBMs

1. Current Status

a. SS-18 (Satan)

b. SS-19 (Stiletto)

c. SS-25 (Topol)

d. SS-27 (Topol-M)

e. RS-24

2. Advantages and Disadvantages of ICBM

B. ALCM

1. Current Status

a. Tu-95 (Bear)

b. Tu-160 (Blackjack)

2. Advantages and Disadvantages of ALCM

C. SEA-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES

CHAPTER IV

FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL FACTORS

A. POLITICAL FACTORS

1. Policies and Reform

2. U.S. & Russian Nuclear ArmsTreaties

B. FINANCIAL FACTORS

1. Defense Budget

2. Financial Impediments

3. Financial Security

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSION

LIST OF REFERENCES

INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST

FOOTNOTES

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LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile

ALCM Air-Launched Cruise Missile

C3 Command, Control, & Communications

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

IMF International Monetary Fund

IRBM Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile

MIRV Multiple Independent Re-entryVehicle

R&D Research and Development

RF Russian Federation

RVSN Strategic Rocket Forces

SLBM Sea-Launched Ballistic Missile

SLCM Sea-Launched Cruise Missile

SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty

SORT Strategic Offensive ReductionsTreaty

SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine, Nuclear

SSN Fast Attack Submarine, Nuclear

START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

VLF Very Low Frequency

VLW Very Long Wave

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to thank Professor David Yostfor his undying patience with me during this thesis process. Hisability to create prose and amazing knowledge continues to impressme.

In addition, I would like to thank PavelPodvig. His expertise and willingness to assist my research wasvital to the successful completion of this thesis.

Finally, I would like to thank my wife. Herability to put up with the time spent on this thesis is greatlyappreciated, and her support throughout is incomparable.

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CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this thesis is to analyzefactors that may shape the future of Russia's nuclear ballisticmissile submarine (SSBN) force. The objective is to reach informedjudgments as to whether and to what extent the SSBN force will beable to survive in Russia in light of budget constraints, evolvingpolitical and strategic priorities, and competition from bomberaircraft and land-based missiles.

One of the key issues is to what extentmaintaining ballistic missile submarine capabilities is beneficialto the Russian Federation (RF). Will Russian decision makersabandon the SSBN force in favor of more reliable and financiallyaffordable assets? This thesis examines the characteristics of theSSBN force, including stealth, command and control, maintenanceconcerns, survivability, and capabilities, and then analyzes itsmerits and shortcomings. Operational and deterrence missioncompetition from land- and air-based platforms is examined toassess their role in the future of Russia's nuclear arsenal.Finally, budgetary competition from the rest of the navy isconsidered as yet another factor that may affect the prospects ofthe SSBN force.

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A. INTRODUCTION

"The Soviet Union will remain the only poweron earth capable of destroying the United States, and modernizationof Soviet strategic nuclear forces continues."1 This statement in1991 by Dick Cheney, then Secretary of Defense, emphasizes theimportance of Russian nuclear forces in shaping United Statesnational security strategies. The Russian Federation has continuedto modernize its nuclear forces and will remain a potential threatto the security of the United States and its allies. By assessingthe probable future of Russia's SSBN force, U.S. political andmilitary leaders can ensure that the proper attention is given toit. This thesis attempts to determine what may motivate the Russianleaders to continue maintaining and modernizing the SSBN force.