David B H Denoon - Ballistic Missile Defense in the Post-Cold War Era

Ballistic Missile Defense in the PostCold War Era

First published 1991 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
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Copyright 1991 Mark A. Anderson

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Denoon, David.
Ballistic missile defense in the postCold War era / David B.H. Denoon.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Ballistic missile defensesUnited States. 2. Antimissile
missilesUnited States. 3. World politics1989 I. Title.
UG743.D46 1995
358.1'74'0973dc20 95-12440
CIP

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-1702-6 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-6689-2 (pbk)

DOI:10.4324/9780429046889

Most public commentary on major international issues lags somewhat behind changing realities. At present, the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War have created a striking change in the world balance of power. Prodigious amounts of effort are being devoted to explaining the resulting shifts in the structure of the international system. This attention to the macro changes in the international environment has led to a neglect of other, less visible changes which could well determine the next important set of adjustments in the global competition for power and influence.

One of the most critical of these new developments has been the growth of the quantity and sophistication of ballistic missile forces in the third world. Ironically, just as many of our foreign policy commentators were concluding that a comprehensive National Missile Defense (NMD) was not necessary for the continental U.S., the missile threat to U.S. forces overseas was growing and the number of third world nations with the capability to develop long-range missiles was also growing. The U.S. Congress did pass the Missile Defense Act of 1991 which actually authorized the development of a limited American NMD system. Unfortunately, Congress never appropriated funds for the procurement of that limited system for the U.S. homeland.

The Clinton Administration has favored new funds for Theater Missile Defense (TMD) that could be used to protect U.S. forces deployed abroad or to protect allies from short- and medium-range missiles; however, it has opposed deployment of any missile defense for the continental U.S. and has turned the strategic defense effort into a purely research program.

The purpose of this volume is three-fold: (1) to explain why ballistic missiles are proliferating and the threat they pose, (2) to identify the principal issues warranting attention in the development of Theater and National Missile Defense, and (3) to demonstrate how adjustments in U.S. strategic thinking and force structure should be made as we plan for the 21st Century.

One of the central themes of this volume is that NMD should be viewed essentially like catastrophic health insurance. All individuals hope to avoid devastating health costs, but many are either unwilling or unable to pay for it. Because of the limited area they protect, TMDs are less controversial, but deciding on NMD is inherently a national issue of major import. Hence, missile defense should be viewed as a "public good" and subject to rational evaluation of its pros and cons. Regrettably, much of the debate about missile defense in the U.S. since 1968 has been highly emotional and infused with various ideological agendas. The attempt here is to present these issues in as direct a manner as possible so that the public and the international community can consider how much it wants to invest in this space-age type of "survival insurance."

In working on this manuscript, a large number of individuals and institutions have been helpful to me. Funds from the Sloan Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute first helped launch this effort, and then leaves from New York University and a stay at Stanford University were most helpful in pursuing the project. Particular thanks go to Claude Barfield for early encouragement; and to Frank Miller, Fred Hoffman, Angelo Codevilla, Richard Perle, Ted Postol, and Paul Nitze for insightful comments as this effort got underway. Thanks are also in order for James Abrahamson, Henry Cooper, Keith Payne, Stephen Hadley, Douglas Graham, J.D. Crouch, Steven Cambone, Frank Jenkins and David Wright, who gave me mid-course corrections as the work proceeded. Important data and figures were provided by Thomas Johnson of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, and Donald Baucom did a superb historical critique of the developments I was attempting to explain. Oleg Bartrachenko and Li Wei helped research and draft the extensive appendix on Soviet missile defense programs; and B.B. Bell, Harold Brown, Dov Zakheim, Sidney Graybeal and Steven Brams gave me extremely helpful critiques of draft chapters. Special thanks go to Nasrin Abdolali, who not only reviewed the chapters but made numerous helpful comments on the presentation of the data. Finally, Mick Gusinde-Duffy, Eric Wright, and Jim Grode of Westview Press were extremely gracious and supportive as the work proceeded.