Bruce Parrott - The Soviet Union and Ballistic Missile Defense

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The Soviet Union and Ballistic Missile Defense

THE JOHNS HOPKINS FOREIGN POLICY INSTITUTE

Harold Brown Chairman

Simon Serfaty

Executive Director

Robert E. Osgood

Codirector Security Studies Program

Wilfrid Kohl

Director International Energy Program

Philip Geyelin

Editor-in-Residence

Michael Vlahos

Codirector Security Studies Program

Nancy McCoy

Editorial Coordinator

George R. Packard

Dean, School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University

The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) was founded in 1980 and serves as the research center for the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C. The fpi is a meeting place for SAIS faculty members and students as well as for government analysts, policymakers, diplomats, journalists, business leaders, and other specialists in international affairs. In addition to conducting research on policy-related international issues, the FPI sponsors conferences, seminars, and roundtables.

The FPl's research activities are often carried out in conjunction with SAlS's regional and functional programs dealing with Latin America and the Caribbean Basin, U.S. foreign policy, U.S.-Japan relations, Canada, Africa, Europe, security studies, international energy, and international economics.

FPI publications include the SAIS Review, a biannual journal of foreign affairs, which is edited by SAIS students; the SAIS Papers in International Affairs, a monograph series copublished with Westview Press in Boulder, Colorado; the FPI Policy Briefs, a series of analyses of immediate or emerging foreign-policy issues; and the FPI Case Studies, a series designed to teach analytical negotiating skills.

The Soviet Union and Ballistic Missile Defense is the third in a series of five books. This series is being prepared by the FPI as part of a research project on the longterm implications of military programs and activities in space for strategic stability, superpower relations, and alliance cohesion.

For additional information regarding FPI publications, write to: FPI Publications Program, School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University, 1740 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036.

About the Book and Author

In the recent debate over strategic defense, the Soviet dimension has not been adequately examined. Dr. Parrott's multifaceted discussion of the Soviet approach to ballistic missile defense (BMD) admirably fills that gap. Based on an analysis of Soviet statements and Soviet weaponry, the study surveys Soviet perceptions of the shifting relationship between the superpowers and the effect of BMD on that relationship. The author then traces the evolution of Soviet policies toward ballistic missile defense and the introduction of weapons into space. After exploring the internal budgetary debates that will affect future Soviet decisions on BMD and space systems, the book outlines Soviet responses, political as well as military, to the Strategic Defense Initiative and concludes with recommendations for U.S. policy toward BMD and arms negotiations.

Bruce Parrott is the director of Soviet Studies at The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is the author of Politics and Technology in the Soviet Union (1983) and editor of Trade, Technology, and Soviet-American Relations (1985). He is currently writing a book on the politics of Soviet defense spending.

Number 14

SAIS PAPERS IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

The Soviet Union and Ballistic Missile Defense

Bruce Parrott

First published 1987 by Westview Press

Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1987 by The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 86-51633

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-29610-0 (hbk)

Dedicated with all my love to Sindy and Matthew, who lived through it, arid to Lydia, who cleverly arrived in time to celebrate

Contents

Guide

This book is one of several studies prepared for a project on "The Military Uses of Space." Funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the project is being conducted under the auspices of the Foreign Policy Institute of The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

In writing the book I have received generous help from several persons. I want especially to thank Harold Brown, chairman of the Foreign Policy Institute, and Simon Serfaty, the institute's executive director, for encouraging me to undertake the study and waiting patiently for its completion. Other scholars who read and commented on preliminary drafts include Charles Fairbanks, Douglas Garthoff, Raymond Garthoff, Lawrence Gershwin, David Holloway, Simon Kassel, Glenn Kent, Stanley Kober, Michael MccGwire, Gordon Schloming, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Paul Stares, and Edward Warner III. None of these experts would agree with everything the book contains, and a few would probably differ with its central thesis. But all have helped make it better than it otherwise could have been.

In addition, I wish to express my appreciation to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where I completed the final draft of the book while a fellow. My thanks go as well to Andrew Kuchins, Anne Herr, and Stephen Foye for their assistance in locating elusive sources, and to Nancy McCoy for her sterling editing.

Finally, my family's contribution to the book deserves recognition. During the writing, Sindy Parrott, my wife, generously shouldered a disproportionate share of our household's daily tasks, despite her own demanding professional obligations. For this I owe her a special debt of gratitude. Help of a different sort came from Matthew, our five-year-old son, who praised books that tell a story and reminded me through his actions that life's meaning depends on play as well as work.

Bruce Parrott

1.
The Central Issues

I n the recent American debate over strategic defense, the Soviet dimension of the problem has received little systematic attention. Although a substantial body of pertinent Western scholarship exists, public discussion of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) has taken inadequate notice of Soviet views and policies.

The failure to devote sustained attention to the Soviet approach to ballistic missile defense is a critical deficiency of the Western public debate over U.S. policy. Without a careful effort to understand the strategic, political, and economic context of Soviet military choices, Western policymakers may seriously misjudge the current situation. For instance, U.S. officials, relying on statements of Soviet strategic doctrine formulated in the 1960s, have suggested that the USSR is already committed to deploying its own large-scale BMD system, whatever the United States may do. Only careful sifting can distinguish the various strands of Soviet policy discourse and sort out real statements of policy from propaganda.

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