James Walsh - True Odds : How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life

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title	:	True Odds : How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life
author	:	Walsh, James.
publisher	:	Silver Lake Publishing
isbn10 | asin	:	1563431149
print isbn13	:	9781563431142
ebook isbn13	:	9780585033297
language	:	English
subject	Risk assessment, Risk perception, Risk management.
publication date	:	1996
lcc	:	HM256.W35 1996eb
ddc	:	302/.12
subject	:	Risk assessment, Risk perception, Risk management.

True Odds How risk affects your everyday life by James Walsh Silver Lake Publishing

True Odds How risk affects your everday life First edition, second printing, 1998 Copyright 1998 by Silver Lake Publishing For a list of other publications or for more information, please call +11 (323) 663-3082. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transcribed in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of Silver Lake Publishing. Library of Congress Catalogue Number: 95-079500 Walsh, James True Odds How risk affects your everyday life. Includes index. Pages: 401 ISBN: 1-56343-114-9 Printed in the United States of America.

Acknowledgments Most books about the role of risk in everyday life are either dense technical volumes or daffy oversimplifications. My goal in this book has been to apply the complex tools of risk assessment and management to ordinary issues that we all face. As a result, True Odds was a big projectboth in terms of information-gathering and analysis. I have many people to thank for their help. The staff at Merritt Publishing has been hugely helpful, as always. Luisa Beltran, Amy Gordon, Pat Sheppard and Ericka Weeks all did reporting that made the technical detail of the book possible. Cynthia Chaillie, John Hartnett and Linda Lagerstrom all offered useful editorial suggestions. Simone Hirzel and Ginger McKelvey have made the edit and production process run smoothly. Kathie Baumoel helped put together the final package. There have been so many people who've offered facts or insight that I can't name them all here. I've tried to credit everyone appropriately in the course of the book. Specifically, I have to thank John Graham of Harvard University, Sam Peltzman of the University of Chicago and John Stossel of ABC News for reading a draft version of the book and offering their thoughts. Finally, I have to thank James MacKinnon Walsh. His arrival started this whole process. James Walsh November, 1995

Contents Introduction: The nature of risk Part 1: How information is gathered Chapter 1: Who's most likely to contract AIDS 1 Chapter 2: New York City is safer than Tallahassee, Florida 21 Chapter 3: Cancermania 65 Chapter 4: The dangers of old age 91 Part 2: How results are analyzed Chapter 5: Cellular phones and brain cancer 113 Chapter 6: The shortest risk between two points 133 Chapter 7: Pensions need more than compounded interest 157 Chapter 8: Workplace safety means not being shot by your ex 179 Part 3: How analysis is interpreted Chapter 9: Fanning secondhand smoke 199 Chapter 10: Air bags and anti-lock brakes cause accidents 221 Chapter 11: The moral hazard of buying insurance 237 Chapter 12: Alar...an all-time low in misinformation 259 Part 4: How response is influenced Chapter 13: Business risk, investments and game theory 285 Chapter 14: Ebolathe uncoming plague 303 Chapter 15: The odds that you are what you eat 321 Chapter 16: Lotteries are a tax on the stupid 341 Conclusion: The politics of risk 365 Bibliography 377 Index 381

Page 1 Introduction The Nature of Risk The origin of this book traces back to a personal experience. In early 1994, my wife and I were expecting our second child. We'd been members of a big, California-based health maintenance organization for a short time and had some hesitations about the level of attention she would receive from an HMO during a pregnancy. But my wife was healthy and our first childa daughterhad been born healthy and happy, with no problems. So, we figured things would go smoothly. A few months into the pregnancy, we got some disturbing news. A routine ultrasound scan of the baby indicated that its kidneys were slightly enlarged. Dilated was the technical word. My wife was referred to the HMO's critical pregnancy unit, where a second ultrasound was done. A few days later, we went in to meet with one of the doctors on the critical pregnancy staff.

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