Helga Drummond - Guide to Decision Making: Getting it More Right than Wrong

Contents

OTHER ECONOMIST BOOKS

Copyright 2012 by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. All rights reserved.

Text Copyright 2012 by Helga Drummond. All rights reserved.

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To Fay Fielding (ne Smith)

Acknowledgements

THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE who in their different ways have helped me in writing this book and who I would like to thank. I am grateful to the provost of Gresham College, Sir Roderick Floud, for the invitation to speak on aspects of what is in the book and to Barbara Anderson for delivering the lecture when a flash flood prevented me from leaving home. Similar thanks are due to Karen Carr, professor of human systems at Cranfield University, for invitations to lecture at the Defence Academy in Shrivenham. Lord Clifton of Rathmore was kind enough to share his observations on the global financial crisis and its aftermath; William Tankard of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy, helped me with information on gold production; Leslie Willcocks, professor of technology work and globalisation at the London School of Economics, provided statistics on re-contracting; and John Gapper was most illuminating on rogue traders.

Colleagues on the Defence Scientific Advisory Council have been a source of inspiration and insight. I particularly thank Sir Peter Knight for his insights into how scientists think, Scott Steadman for informal discussion on what makes a good engineer and allusions to feeling the metal that informs part of Chapter 4, and Ian Poll, professor of aerospace engineering at Cranfield University, for his observations on planning. Thanks are also due to Major General Alan Macklin for sharing his insights into the art of management.

Without the influence of Rear-Admiral Trevor Spires this book would have never been started. Once it was, the task of writing has been lightened by conversations away from my desk in places such as Lincolns Inn, where the delightful Christopher Barnett QC explained the true meaning of patience to me. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors also provided an hospitable home away from the computer, with Alex Baird, Bob Clarke and Violetta Parylo making it particularly so. The farewell dinner at Roux in Parliament Square that they arranged was a supremely handsome gesture.

Part of the intellectual backcloth of the book is built on research projects funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, and I warmly acknowledge its support. I owe an intellectual debt to Richard Harvey Brown, a professor at the University of Maryland, who sadly I never met before he died. Thanks are due to Catherine Griffiths of Imperial College London, senior editor of the Journal of Information Technology , for her patience and help in developing the ideas on management information systems and risk management that form part of Chapter 4. I am also grateful to Murray Dalziel, professor of management and director of the University of Liverpool Management School, for his support and encouragement. Andrew Derrington, professor of psychology and executive pro-vice-chancellor at the University of Liverpool, held a series of grant-writing workshops that found an unexpected use. Julie Reddy responded with unfailing patience and courtesy to requests for technical help.

Daniel Crewe and Stephen Brough went beyond the normal duties of a commissioning editor in reading draft chapters. Their suggestions have greatly improved the book. Janet Briddon read the manuscript and I am immensely grateful for her work. I would also like to thank Penny Williams for her good-humoured and authoritative copy-editing. Any mistakes are mine. The writing of this book coincided with two bad winters, and the experience made me question my decision to live in a remote 300-year-old farmhouse. I certainly could have done without having to clamber through the woods at six in the morning. The reward was a set of fox prints in the snow illuminated by moonlight. The days teaching was delivered in hiking boots. But it was delivered.