Table of Contents
Praise for Whats the Worst That Could Happen?
Greg Craven has written a brilliant and unique work on global warming. His innovative and intelligent approach to this controversial issue is superbly crafted. It is an important book that is a must-read for those who care about our planet and future generations.
General Anthony C. Zinni, USMC (Retired)
This book trumps most of our accounts of the global warming crisis, partly for its good humor and straightforward logic, and partly because the author has actually figured out what actions make sense. Changing your lightbulb will help a little, but changing the political debate will help enormouslyand this book will get you started down that path.
Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature
The worst thing that could happen is that you dont read this book! Greg Craven has written a valuable primer on the global warming debate.
Gregg Easterbrook, author of Sonic Boom
This is a tremendous book and well worth anyones time to read. It very clearly and concisely covers all of the important points not only about the climate change situation in our moment, but also how we think and decide about important issues. Anyone who enjoyed Cravens YouTube triumph The Most Terrifying Video Youll Ever See will enjoy unpacking that experience in this book, and for people running into Craven for the first time, youre in for a treathe is funny as well as exceptionally clear and wise.
Kim Stanley Robinson, the Hugo and Nebula Award-winning author of the Mars trilogy and Science in the Capital
This is for Katie and Alex.
CHAPTER 0
SHOULD I BOTHER TO READ THIS BOOK?
Are you as sick of all the shouting about global warming as I am? On the one hand, you have the entire U.S. intelligence community issuing a report that says global warming is a national security issue that should be taken seriouslyASAP. On the other, you have a senior senator calling global warming the greatest hoax ever perpetuated by the American people, and hes got a list of 400 scientists who agree with him. Youre not ready to dismiss the possibility that your own security may be threatened, but youve got limited time, and youre put off by the sheer amount of arguments ricocheting around like bullets.
What is the harried lay person supposed to do? If youre like most people, you probably feel as if you were under assault. And youre skeptical of swallowing what people tell you because you suspect theyre just trying to manipulate you to serve their own interests. (Including me!) So, rather than step into the mess yourself to decide whos right, youre inclined to just let the two sides have at each other while you wait for the dust to clear. Thats generally worked out in the past.
But can it work this time? According to the global warming activists, there is a big timer ticking away while we debate, and if we let it run down, we wont just get some weenie little buzzer, but a 100,000-volt charge across the floor, audience included.
That doesnt mean theyre right. But it does sort of raise the sense of urgency for the casual observer, doesnt it? The activists argue that if we do not make a decision for ourselves very soon, then the laws of physics will decide for us. Although we are trying to avoid making an unwise decision by waiting until the issue is settled, in a sense we are constantly making a decision by default: the decision to not take big action yet. Perhaps that is the best decision. But I, for one, want that choice to be a deliberate one.
THE ACTIVISTS SHRIEK
The globe is warming!
Were the ones doing it!
Its gonna be a catastrophe!
Panic! The wolf is at the door!
This is the biggest threat in human history!
Waiting any longer would be too expensive!
There is nothing more worth spending our money on than this!
If we dont take drastic action, the climate and everything in it is doomed!
Weve got to act now, now, now!
The science is settled!
Science doesnt operate by petition!
Youre biased!
Youre just a greedy libertarian corporate shill, looking after your own selfish gain!
Youve fought this so hard that the credibility of conservatives and libertarians is now completely on the line! You guys are going to be so totally hosed when you turn out to be wrong. No one will listen to you ever again!
In 20 years, when the carbon hits the fan, you are all going to be lined up against the wall for dragging the rest of us down with your shortsighted selfishness!
Ahhhh! Look! Look! Its already happening! Cut carbon emissions to zero now! Mitigate! Mitigate!
THE SKEPTICS APPEASE
The globe is not warming.
Its a natural cycle.
Itll be harmless.
Chill out. The wolf is not at the door.
No, this is the biggest hoax in history.
Taking big action would be too expensive.
There are a ton of things more worth spending our money on than this.
If we do take drastic action, the economy and everything in it is doomed!
Lets wait until the science is settled. Ive got a petition right here that says it isnt.
Science doesnt operate by authority! No, youre biased!
Youre just an enviroweenie Chicken Little, looking to control people and start a New World Order!
Youve screeched a false alarm so loudly that the credibility of science itself is on the line! You guys are going to be so totally hosed when you turn out to be wrong. No one will trust the scientific establishment for 100 years.
In 20 years, when your hysterical groupthink and conspiracy are revealed for all to see, you are all going to be lined up against the wall for your corrupt ploy to get money and control!
Its too big to do anything about! Cutting emissions would throw us back to the dark ages! Keep the economy strong so we can deal with this! Adapt! Adapt!
As a high school science teacher for 9 years, my job has been to translate science for people who dont necessarily care for the stuff. So maybe I can help you untangle the climate change snarl and take the decision-making process back into your own hands rather than leaving it to the whims of fate.
Heres the good news: Im not going to do that by offering up yet another hair ball of graphs and footnotes to convince you which side is right. There are plenty of other books out there on both sides trying to do that already.
Instead, this book is designed to give you a set of thinking tools so you can reach your own conclusion, rather than becoming convinced that my or any other authors conclusion is the right one. It gives you specific techniques for putting together all the facts that have already been thrown at you and combining them with your own values and experiences.
