Rees - On the Future

MORE PRAISE FOR ON THE FUTURE

Rees is hardly the first to issue a stern warning about what lies ahead if complacency and consumerism rule, but his lucid, well-reasoned explanation of the stakes and inimitable prose lift this manifesto above the rest. An impassioned call to action from one of the worlds foremost scientists. A book to be read by anyone on Earth who cares about its future.

KIRKUS, starred review

[ On the Future ] offers forecasts of impending technological developments and words of hope for the human ability to use science to repair a wounded planet and improve lives. This far-ranging but easily understood collection of ideas shares and communicates the enthusiasm of Reess techno-optimist view of the prospects for humanity.

PUBLISHERS WEEKLY

On the Future is a very important book that should be widely read and acted upon. Martin Rees combines his deep scientific insights and compassion for humanitys welfare to address, in clear and elegant prose, the major issues facing human civilization today, some of which are not now commonly considered. Whether or not you agree with all the points he makes, you must take them very seriously indeed.

ROGER PENROSE, author of Fashion, Faith, and Fantasy in the New Physics of the Universe

An engaging analysis of the most important issues facing the world, sprinkled with insight and suffused with wisdom and humanity.

STEVEN PINKER, author of Enlightenment Now

Are we heading for a utopian or dystopian future? Martin Rees believes its down to us. But the one thing we must not do is put the brakes on technology. Science, applied wisely, offers humanity a bright future, but we must act now. In this visionary book, and despite his many fears, Rees adopts a refreshing and cautiously optimistic tone.

JIM AL-KHALILI, author of Paradox: The Nine Greatest Enigmas in Physics

A breathtaking journey through thrilling advances in science and technology that may address societys most vexing challenges, On the Future is ideal reading for all citizens of the twenty-first century.

MARCIA K. MNUTT, president of the National Academy of Sciences

What if we got one of the smartest people alive to figure the odds on how we might be able to survive our ability to do ourselves in? We have that person in Martin Rees, and his thoughtful answers in this book.

ALAN ALDA

As Yogi Berra said, Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But in this readable and thought-provoking book, Martin Rees shows the challenges we and our planet faceand why scientists need to engage citizens in the choices that are made.

SHIRLEY M. MALCOM, director of education and human resources programs at the American Association for the Advancement of Science

For anyone who wants to consider the choices we have in our future and the implications of those choices, this is the book to read. Rees is a clear thinker and graceful writer, and he expresses an encouraging optimism about the future, if we can avoid some of our current species-limiting behaviors. Reess projections are grounded in todays scientific knowledge and a scientists sense of probability and presented with a deep sense of humility.

RUSH D. HOLT, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and former U.S. Representative from New Jersey

On the Future is a delightful intellectual treat and a must-read for everyone on Earthand beyond, if aliens exist. With wisdom and originality, Martin Rees, our most accomplished living astronomer, addresses the most important of subjectsthe future of humanity and the scientific advances and risks it brings. His deep personal insights are unique and exciting and his many anecdotes are enjoyable. I couldnt put it down.

ABRAHAM LOEB, Harvard University

In this outstanding book, the always brilliant Martin Rees addresses the key problems of our day, putting humanitys perils and prospects in perspectivefrom climate change, to the future of artificial intelligence, to the threat of bioterrorism, to the chance for future space adventurers to spread out into the universe. Rees is one of the deepest and clearest thinkers on these subjects, and his book sparkles with gems of insight and humor.

J. RICHARD GOTT, coauthor of Welcome to the Universe

In this short and mighty book, Rees grapples with the exhilarating promise and frightening possibilities of todays vast scientific advancements, situating himself somewhere between the techno-optimists and dystopian naysayers. On the Future provides tremendous insight into sciences great expanse and beseeches us all to get involved and advocate for long-term policies that will keep future generations safe. The future of humanity and the planet rests in our hands.

RACHEL BRONSON, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

On the Future will captivate readers. Martin Rees stands at the top of our informed thinkers about futurology.

PEDRO G. FERREIRA, author of The Perfect Theory: A Century of Geniuses and the Battle over General Relativity

This inspiring and thought-provoking book by one of the worlds leading scientists and visionaries is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future of humanity.

MAX TEGMARK, author of Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Our planet is in periland humanity needs huge doses of wisdom to save it. Fortunately, one man, Martin Rees, can provide it. This book is a must-read for all who care about our planets future.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI, author of Has the West Lost It?

Martin Reess book is a vital compass to help us navigate the future, an enthralling love letter to knowledge and rationality, and a call to arms for those of us who dare to hope for the best.

DAVID PUTTNAM, film producer and educator

Martin Reess On the Future is a template of hope that offers practical scientific, social, and political solutions for avoiding man-made disasters that could devastate our species.

MICHAEL WILSON, film producer

ON THE FUTURE

PROSPECTS FOR HUMANITY

ARTIN REES

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESSPRINCETON & OXFORD

Copyright 2018 by Princeton University Press

Published by Princeton University Press

41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR

press.princeton.edu

Jacket image courtesy of Alamy Stock Photo

Extracts from The Reith Lectures: Scientific Horizons (first broadcast on BBC Radio 4 in June 2010) are used with permission of BBC.

All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Control Number 2018935643

ISBN 978-0-691-18044-1

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

This book has been composed in Adobe Text Pro and Refrigerator Deluxe

Printed on acid-free paper.

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

CONTENTS

PREFACE

THIS IS A BOOK ABOUT THE FUTURE. I write from a personal perspective, and in three modes: as a scientist, as a citizen, and as a worried member of the human species. The books unifying theme is that the flourishing of the worlds growing population depends on the wisdom with which science and technology is deployed.

Todays young people can expect to live to the end of the century. So how can they ensure that ever more powerful technologiesbio, cyber, and AIcan open up a benign future, without threatening catastrophic downsides? The stakes are higher than ever before; what happens this century will resonate for thousands of years. In addressing such a wide-ranging theme Im mindful that even the experts have a poor record of forecasting. But Im unrepentant because its crucial to enhance public and political discourse on long-term scientific and global trends.