Todinov - Methods for Reliability Improvement and Risk Reduction

1. Chapter 02

1. Chapter 02
2. Chapter 03
3. Chapter 04
4. Chapter 05
5. Chapter 06
6. Chapter 07
7. Chapter 08
8. Chapter 09
9. Chapter 10
10. Chapter 11
11. Chapter 12

Michael Todinov

Oxford Brookes University
UK

This edition first published 2019

2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: Todinov, M. T., author.

Title: Methods for reliability improvement and risk reduction / Michael

Todinov, Oxford Brookes University, UK.

Description: Hoboken, NJ, USA : Wiley, 2019. | Includes bibliographical

references and index. |

Identifiers: LCCN 2018033729 (print | LCCN 2018036493 (ebook | ISBN

9781119477310 (Adobe PDF | ISBN 9781119477594 (ePub | ISBN 9781119477587

(hardcover

Subjects: LCSH: Reliability (Engineering | Risk management. | System

failures (Engineering

Classification: LCC TA169 (ebook | LCC TA169 .T649 2019 (print | DDC

620/.00452dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018033729

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Illustration: Michael Todinov

To the bright memory of my mother

The common approach to risk reduction is domainspecific and relies exclusively on detailed knowledge from a specific domain. Measures specific to the domain are selected for reducing the risk and risk reduction is conducted exclusively by the experts in the domain. The underlying argument is simple yet powerful. Why should, for example, a welding specialist or automotive engineer listen to and seek advice from a general risk expert on how to improve the reliability of the welds or the reliability of a car? After all, the risk expert is not normally familiar with the welding or automotive technology.

This argument contributed to creating the illusion that efficient risk reduction can be delivered successfully solely by using methods offered by the specific domain without resorting to general methods for risk reduction. This led to a situation that in many domains, even the existence of a general risk science has been forgotten. In textbooks on design of machine components, for example, there is hardly any mention of general methods for improving reliability and reducing the risk of failure.

The price for this illusion is that many industries have been deprived of effective risk reducing strategy and solutions. The same mistakes are made again and again, resulting in numerous accidents and inferior products and processes, associated with high risk of failure.

An important contributing reason for this highly undesirable situation is the absence of a framework of domainindependent methods that could provide vital methodological knowledge in reliability improvement and risk reduction.

With the exception of a very few simple and wellknown domainindependent methods for risk reduction, such as implementing redundancy, strengthening weak links, upgrading with more reliable components, simplification of components, systems and operations, and condition monitoring, the framework of domainindependent methods for risk reduction is missing. The absence of a framework of domainindependent risk reduction methods diminishes significantly the importance of risk science and poses serious questions about whether it actually adds value to various areas of human activity.

Consequently, proposing a framework of domainindependent methods for improving reliability and reduce risk was the primary motivation behind writing this book.

In this book, methods and principles related to improving reliability and reducing risk that can be classified as domainindependent are first reviewed and their limitations discussed. Next, new domainindependent principles and methods for reliability improvement and risk reduction are introduced, with a detailed discussion of the mechanisms through which they reduce risk.

The methods of reliability improvement and risk reduction presented in this book are based on a large number of available solutions, most of which came from mechanical engineering. Each of the available solutions was analysed for recurring reliabilityenhancing patterns and invariants. A certain level of abstraction was used to strip available solutions from the specific mechanical engineering context and uncover the underlying patterns governing the reliability improvement and risk reduction.

From the analysis of available solutions, various patterns and invariants emerged which were captured and distilled into categories, classes, and individual techniques. The application of the distilled new methods and principles has been illustrated with numerous reallife application examples and case studies. Many of the domainindependent methods reduce risk at no extra cost. This is a significant advantage to many traditional methods for reducing risk (e.g. redundancy, upgrading components, condition monitoring) which are associated with substantial investment.