N. A. Elmunim - Ionospheric Delay Investigation and Forecasting

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Ionospheric delay is an important factor in understanding ionospheric morphology. Modelling practices ensure comparatively precise positioning, navigation, satellite communication and electromagnetic wave propagation. The investigation and forecasting of transionospheric propagation errors offer significant information as a reference in satellite and space navigation, space geodesy and radio astronomy applications. The broadcast Klobuchar model, which is the most common model used in ionospheric correction, can correct only 50% of the total effect. Thus, identifying the best approach to the ionospheric delay is necessary to effectively eliminate such effects over equatorial regions. This study focuses on an assessment and forecast of transionospheric propagation errors to attain precise measurements for improved results using a developed approach called the Holt-Winter method. This method was modified to investigate the forecasting of the ionospheric delay using global positioning systemtotal electron content (GPSTEC) measurements to enhance the knowledge on the effects of ionospheric delay errors on GPS navigation in equatorial regions. The Holt-Winter method describes the periodicity of the ionospheric delay. Developed equations perform well in different regions of Malaysia during quiet periods and periods of geomagnetic disturbance. The results obtained from this study demonstrated the ionospheric delay variability, as well as the effectiveness and capability of the Holt-Winter method, which can accurately forecast the ionospheric delay and thus can be used as a regional model in equatorial regions. These results are highly beneficial in providing GPS data correction to GPS users and assisting the future development of satellite-based augmentation systems in equatorial regions.

This book was made possible with the help of God and the inspiration, guidance, comments and support of several people. I thank all of those who have contributed to my work in various ways.

Firstly, I would like to give heartfelt thanks to my beloved parents for providing consistent encouragement for my intellectual endeavours and for supporting my educational journey, while instilling in me the confidence that anything is possible with hard work. I am highly indebted to them.

I acknowledge the National University of Malaysia (UKM), Space Science Centre (ANGKASA) and National Observatory Langkawi for providing the GISTM data from the UKM and Langkawi station. Furthermore, I am grateful to the Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM) for providing the GPS data from the TGPG, UUMK and MUKH stations. I also thank the UKM and Malaysian Government through the Ministry of Education for the research grants (FRGS/2/2013/TK03/UKM/02/1 and GUP-2013-047) that have enabled me to pursue this project.