Saul Griffith - Electrify : an optimists playbook for our clean energy future

Saul Griffith

The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England

2021 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher.

The MIT Press would like to thank the anonymous peer reviewers who provided comments on drafts of this book. The generous work of academic experts is essential for establishing the authority and quality of our publications. We acknowledge with gratitude the contributions of these otherwise uncredited readers

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Griffith, Saul, author.

Title: Electrify : an optimists playbook for our clean energy future / Saul Griffith.

Description: Cambridge, Massachusetts : The MIT Press, [2021] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2020052159 | ISBN 9780262046237 (hardcover)

Subjects: LCSH: ElectrificationEnvironmental aspectsUnited States. | ElectrificationEconomic aspectsUnited States. | Electric power productionEnvironmental aspectsUnited States. | Electric power productionEconomic aspectsUnited States. | Energy developmentUnited States. | Energy policyUnited States. | Clean energyUnited States. | Renewable energy sourcesUnited States. | Climate change mitigationUnited States.

Classification: LCC TD195.E4 G735 2021 | DDC 333.793/20973dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020052159

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Thank you, Arwen, for everything.

Especially for Huxley and Bronte, who give me hope and purpose.

This is an emergency as serious as war itself.

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Were not alone. Good people will fight if we lead them.

Poe Dameron, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Americans will always do the right thingafter exhausting all the alternatives.

Winston Churchill

In this book I approach the climate emergency from a new angle. I look for solutions, not barriers. Solving climate change should taste at least as good as carrots, at best ice cream, but it should not be painful. Instead, Id like to offer a no-regrets pathway to success.

All too many people in climate advocacy or climate work are beginning with the question of what is politically possible? That could be a result of the frustration that drives many people, including our children, to march and protest for more rigorous climate action. But aiming only for what is politically possible is the art of limiting ambition before you begin.

This book doesnt start with the question of what is politically possible, but asks what is technically necessary to reach a climate solution that is also a great economic pathway for a country. After we realize what is technically necessary, America needs nothing short of a concerted mobilization of technology, industry, labor, regulatory reform, and, critically, finance. Every stakeholder needs to coordinate their efforts to create the lowest-cost, zero-carbon energy system for all citizens.

The book provides details about one probable pathway to total decarbonization. Because I am trying to paint a picture of the future that is complete and compelling, some readers might think I am picking winners among clean-energy solutions. This book attempts to be technology agnosticbut not at the expense of exploring the likely technological outcomes. Fusion would be great, and nearly free carbon capture would be useful, but Im not here to champion specific ideas; instead, I support technologies that pass the Is it ready and does it work? test.

The pathway that works is best summarized as electrify everything.

The book leans on real data, much of which was assembled in an unprecedented analysis of the US energy economy that I undertook under contract with the US Department of Energy. These details provide a story that is less about abstract concepts than about the recognizable technologies that define our world. This book provides a high-resolution picture of the consequences of electrifying everything. Will our lives change? The surprising answer is, not radically. Those things that will change are for the better: cleaner air and water, better health, cheaper energy, and a more robust grid. Our citizens can keep pretty much all of the complexity and variety promised by the American dream, with the same-sized homes and vehicles, while using less than half the energy we currently use. This is a success story that casts aside the 1970s-era narrative of trying to efficiency our way to zero emissions. Our country faces a challenge of transformation, not of deprivation.

How do we ensure the lowest cost of energy while electrifying everything? First, policymakers have to rewrite the federal, state, and local rules and regulations that were created for the fossil-fueled world and which prevent the US from having the cheapest electricity ever. Our country needs to massively scale up the industrial production of technological solutions, just as we did to win World War II. We cannot take our foot off the innovation gasalthough Ill argue that we dont need any major breakthroughs, as thousands of little inventions and cost reductions are the key to achieving our end goal. Finally, we must have cheap financing for our transition to a zero-carbon energy system with low-interest climate loans. Climate change will not be solved if only the richest 10% can afford it; we need mechanisms to bring everyone along for the ride. In our nations history, there are precedents for doing this: the US pioneered public-private financing in the past. Innovative versions of this can help us get the job done today.

The consequence of getting the technology, financing, and regulations right is that every family in the US can save thousands of dollars each year.

We need to triple the amount of electricity delivered in the US. What is required is a moonshot engineering project to deliver a new energy grid with new rulesa grid that operates more like the internet. To do this, I argue that we must have grid neutrality.

The industrial mobilization required to hit the climate targets that our children deserve will require an effort similar to World War IIs Arsenal of Democracy in size, speed, and scope.

For a world desperate to rebound from a pandemic and economic crisis, there is no other project that would create this many jobs. Ive worked with an economist to include an analysis that projects the creation of as many as 25 million good-paying jobs, spread across every zip code, suburb, and rural town in the country, should we choose to address climate aggressively.

This will not be easy, and people will tell you it is politically impossible. But, as I argue in this book, it is still possible. The earth is bigger than politics, and to meet our challenge, politics as usual must change.

Our future on this planet is in jeopardy. Billionaires may dream of escaping to Mars, but the rest of us... we have to stay and fight.

• To eliminate all of our carbon emissions, the only serious option is to electrify (nearly) everything.
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