Tony Juniper - The Science of Our Changing Planet: From Global Warming to Sustainable Development

Editor Cathy Meeus Art Editor Dunca n T ur ner Managing E ditor Angel es Gavi ra Guerr ero Managing A rt Editor Michael Duf fy Product ion C ontroller Gillian Reid Jacket Designer Aki ko Ka to Jacket Design Developm ent Man ager Sophia MTT Art Direct or Karen Self Design D irector Phil Or merod Associat e Publ ishing D irect or Liz W heeler Publishing Direct or Jonath an Metc alf First publishe d in Gr eat Bri tain in 2021 by Dorling K indersley Limited DK, On e Embass y Garden s, 8 V iaduct Gardens, London, SW 7BW The aut horised r epresentati ve in t he EEA is Do rling K indersley Verl ag GmbH. Arn ulfst r. 4, 80 636 Munich , Germ any Previously published in 201 as What s Really H appening to Our Planet and 201 as How Wer e F** *ing U p Our Pla net Tex t copyrig ht 201 6, 9, 2021 T on y Junipe r Copyright 6, 9, 2021 Dor ling Ki ndersley Limited A Pengu in Random House C ompany 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 001- 32496 6-Nov /2021 All ri ghts reserv ed. No par t of this publica tion ma y be rep roduced, sto red in or introduced into a retri eval sy stem, or tr ansmitt ed, in any for m, or by any mea ns (e lect ronic, m echanical , photoc opying, r ecording, or othe rwi se) , wit hout t he pri or wri tte n perm ission o f the copyright owner . A CIP c atalogu e record for th is book is availa ble fr om the Brit ish Li brary . ISBN: 978 -0-2 -1 -6 Printed a nd bound in Dub ai For t he cur io us www. dk.com

16 THE P OPULAT ION EXPLOSION 18 Populat ion shi ft 2021 Livin g longer 2223 Slowi ng th e rise 2425 ECONOMIC EX PA NSION 2627 What is GDP? 2829 Riche r people 3031 Global power shi ft 3233 Tradin g benets 3435 CITY PL ANET 3637 Rise of megaci ties 3839 Urban pressure s 404 FUEL F OR GROWT H 424 Surge i n dema nd 4445 Carbon footpr int 464 Renewable revolution 484 How solar energy works 505 Wind powe r 5253 Tidal and wave energy 5455 Energy conun drum 10 Introd uctio n 5657 ESCALA TI NG APPETITE 585 Farm ed plan et 606 Fert ilizer boom 626 Pest cont rol cha lle nge 6465 How food is wasted 666 Feedi ng the world 686 Threa ts to fo od secu rity 707 THIRSTY WORLD 7273 Freshw ater scar city 74 The water cycle 76 Water f ootpri nt 787 CONSUMING PAS SIONS 808 Rise o f consum erism 8283 Wast eful wo rld 8485 Wher e does it al l go? 868 Chemic al cock tail

9091 THE G LOBAL AG E 9293 Mobile conn ectiv ity 9495 Taki ng to the ski es 9697 BETTER LIVES FOR MAN Y 9899 Clean water and sa nitat ion 100 Readin g and w ritin g 102 Health ier worl d 104 Unequ al worl d 106 Corru ption 108 Displaced people 110 OUR CHAN GING ATM OSPHERE 112 The gr eenhou se effe ct 114 Hole in the sk y 116 A warme r world 118 Seasons o ut of syn c 120 How cli mate pattern s work 1221 Extrem e world 124 The 1.5 de gree limit 126 Feedb ack loops 128 How much ca n we bu rn? 130 The car bon cro ssroads 132 The car bon cy cle 134 Targe ts for th e futu re 136 Toxi c air 138 Acid rai n 140 CHANGING THE LAND 142 Forest cleara nce 144 Desert icat ion 146 Land r ush 148 SEA CHAN GES 150 Farmin g sh 152 Acid seas 154 Dead seas 156 Plastic poll ution 158 THE G REAT DECLIN E 160 Biodiv ersity hot spots 162 Inva sive spe cies 164 Natur es serv ices 166 Insec t pol linat ion 168 The val ue of natu re 170 Pandem ic ri sk 172 Consequ ences of th e pandem ic

176 THE G REAT ACCELER ATI ON 178 Planetar y bou ndari es 180 Inter conne cted pr essures 1821 WHAT S TH E GLOBAL PLA N? 184 Sustainabl e development goals 186 Climate chang e challe nges 188 Biodiv ersity c halle nges 190 Natur es sp aces 1921 SHAPING THE F UTURE 194 Low car bon gr owth 196 The ri se of clea n technol ogy 198 A sustain able economy 2002 Circular economy 202203 A new mi ndset 20420 Restorin g the fu ture 2062 Glossar y 212 Index 218 References and acknowl edgment s About the author Environment alist To ny Junipe r, CBE, is Chair o f the o f cial natu re conserv ation ag ency Natural England and a Fel low of th e Univer sity of Cambridge Institute for Susta inability Leadershi p. He is a fo rmer Di rect or of Fri ends of the Ea rth , Ex ecutive Direct or of W WF UK, P resident of the Royal So ciety of Wil dlife T ru sts, and environment advisor to HRH th e Prince of Wales . He h as a lso advi sed many inter national co mpanies.

THE SCIENCE OF OUR CHANGING PLANET F oreword by HRH The Prince of W ales

INTRO DUCTION During recen t dec ades, th e pace , scale, and scope of for ces shap ing pl anet Ear th have r apidly increased. Populat ion and economi c growt h, coup led w ith ri sing demand f or resou rces and the enviro nmenta l impact s caus ed by the se trends, are rap idly changing the fac e of ou r worl d. If we are to secure ou r fut ure, vit ally import ant qu estions must be urg ently addressed. Understa ndin g the sca le a nd sc ope of th e chan ges shapin g our fu ture , and t he con nect ions be tween th em is vita l to e nable us to ma ke sen se of our modern world. The unp recede nted tra nsfor matio ns unf oldi ng ar ound us touch a ll a reas o f societ y, from busi ness a nd nanc e to poli tics a nd ec onomi cs, an d from sci ence an d technol ogy to behav iour and c ulture . Drivers of chan ge Seismi c shi fts a re sh apin g our fu ture . Rapid ly r ising popula tion is a key fact or. In 19 50 th ere were 2. 5 bil lio n people on Ea rth, today it is more th an thr ee tim es that numb er, an d by 20 50 th e global popul ation i s expec ted to exceed 9 bil lio n. Th e impac t of p eople on ou r plan et is, however , not only a resul t of how ma ny of us there are, but is al so af fect ed by our coll ecti ve sta ndar d of livin g. Th is is why the rapid exp ansio n of the globa l economy seen dur ing recent de cades is anot her fundam ental driv er, ena blin g more people to enjoy th e comfo rts and bene ts that come wi th in crease d incom e and c onsump tion. Economi c grow th a nd r ising livi ng st andard s have in par t be en fuel led by rapid ur bani zation , and the progr essive shi ft o f people fr om ru ral a reas to town s and c ities . Over t he past 50 yea rs the process t hat POPULAT ION EXPLOSION ESCALAT ING URBANIZAT ION Since 1 950, the global popul ation almost tri ples, t o 7.9 billion in 2021 More than half of the worlds po pulation now lives in towns or citie s