Sumita Dawra - China: Behind the Miracle

China: Behind the Miracle

Sumita Dawra is a masterful interpreter of Chinas miracle, bringing a first-hand understanding of development to reveal what appears to so many as an unfathomable mystery. In doing so, she shows us China as the Chinese see it themselves.

Andrew Browne, China Columnist, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), China

This is a fascinating account of Chinas miracle seen through the eyes of an Indian civil servant. Sumita Dawra used her time in China to travel extensively and truly get behind the miracle. The vignettes and data that she focuses on are highly revealing both about China itself and about what makes China different from other developing countries. I highly recommend this thoughtful and enjoyable book.

David Dollar, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, USA; former Country Director, World Bank for China & Mongolia

Ms Dawras book provides an insightful glimpse into the diverse growth models adopted by China across different areas. Its lessons, derived through personal experience, will help us refine our own development strategies. A valuable addition to the existing academic literature on China....

Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) & China-India Friendship Awardee

In China: Behind the Miracle, Sumita Dawra provides essential insight into one of the most important economic stories of our time, the rise of China. She illustrates the development model that has made the Chinese economy a juggernaut, while also revealing the widening cracks that threaten to undermine the miracle she chronicles.

Gady Epstein, Media Editor, The Economist, New York, USA; former Bureau chief of The Economist, Beijing, China

Dawras personal yet authoritative account offers a first-hand view of the mystery of Chinas development. She is a seasoned diplomat who saw China through a fascinating stage of development and a major change of government.

Michelle Garnaut, CEO M Restaurant Group, & Founder Shanghai International and Capital Literary Festival (Beijing), China

Sumitas book is a very interesting read on Chinas amazing growth story and what a slowing Chinese economy means to both the country and to the rest of the world. A valuable book for readers and policy makers in developing countries as well as for analysts in the developed world who may want to know more about the Chinese multidimensional economic story

Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India; formerly at Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, USA

China: Behind the Miracle

SUMITA DAWRA

First published in India 2015

2015 by Sumita Dawra

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers.

No responsibility for loss caused to any individual or organization acting on or refraining from action as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by Bloomsbury or the author.

The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author, and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author. While best efforts have been made in preparing this book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use for a particular purpose.

The publisher believes that the content of this book does not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action.

BLOOMSBURY and the Diana logo are trademarks of Bloomsbury Publishing Plc

E-ISBN 978 93 86141 94 1
2 4 6 8 10 9 7 5 3 1

Bloomsbury Publishing India Pvt. Ltd
Second Floor, LSC Building No.4
DDA Complex, Pocket C 6 & 7, Vasant Kunj
New Delhi 110070
www.bloomsbury.com

To find out more about our authors and books visit www.bloomsbury.com.
Here you will find extracts, author interviews, details of forthcoming
events and the option to sign up for our newsletters.

To my time in Beijing,
which helped me evolve dramatically on the professional and personal front

Contents

One morning in June 2014, as I was on my way to Tsinghua University in Beijing to attend a conference on world peace, I asked the two journalists sitting with me in the car: Looking back over the last few years of your stay in China, what is the one media story you would pick that would most appropriately define contemporary China? I would pick the story on Chinas real estate, said the younger of the two, because no other countrys economy is entwined as much with real estate as it is here in China. How can you say that? I countered. After all, it was the housing crisis in the US that led to a national economic crisis, not to mention the global financial meltdown in 2008. Yes, but what I see here is a bigger involvement with the real estate market. People who can afford have invested heavily into the sector, purchasing multiple houses. What is the real market value of these properties is unknown, and the activity is like what happens in a casino, he explained his viewpoint.

I did some quick thinking and recollected having read consistent reports over the past three years on how the property market was a critical driving force for the Chinese economy. Infrastructure investments and real estate had contributed significantly to Chinas expansion in the last decade. Recent analysis of the slowdown in China held declining real estate activity responsible for sluggish fixed-asset investments, leading to lower growth rates in the country. Property sector related bank credit in China was estimated at 20 per cent of the total banking portfolio, while industries like steel, cement, and electrical appliances were also closely correlated with health of the real estate activity in the country. I had to acknowledge that in reply to my query, my journalist friend had picked up an all-important economic issue, indeed.

Now turning to the other journalist, I asked him for his pick of the most defining Chinese economic moment in his near five years of stay. I would say the story of China becoming the second largest economy in the world is the one that really struck me. When China declared its GDP data in 2011, which showed they had overtaken Japan, it took everyone by surprise and showed that China had truly arrived. I remember this story well, as it had burst into the media in February 2011, the very month I had arrived in China on my posting. It had also then been prognosticated that in another ten years, Chinas economy would be almost as big as that of the US.

Sitting in the back seat of the car, I smiled to myself, and reflected on how my two journalist friends had done a fine job of selecting their one most-defining story on China. None of them seemed to ask me for my most defining story, and I was thankful for that, for there would be so many of them popping in my mind based on my travels, conversations and readings. Some of these stories pertained to how the Chinese macroeconomic data at times seemed bewildering and mysterious, especially when it was growth related. It was no surprise then to read articles like, China GDP Release Guide: What to Watch for Beyond the Headlines.