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Joe E. Armstrong - Strategies For Conducting Technology Assessments

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Strategies for Conducting Technology Assessments Other Titles in This Series - photo 1
Strategies for Conducting Technology Assessments
Other Titles in This Series
Valuing Life: Public Policy Dilemmas, edited by Steven E. Rhoads
Science, Politics, and Controversy: Civilian Nuclear Power in the United States, 1946-1974, Steven L. Del Sesto
Technology Transfer to Cities: Processes of Choice at the Local Level, W. Henry Lambright
The State of Science and Research: Some New Indicators, edited by Nestor E. Terleckyj
Flavor: Its Chemical, Behavioral, and Commercial Aspects: Proceedings of the Arthur D. Little Flavor Symposium , April 1977, edited by Charles M. Apt
Federal Funding of Civilian Research and Development, edited by Michael Michaelis
Also of Interest
Space Stations: International Law and Policy, Delbert D. Smith
Domestic Satellite: An FCC Giant Step: Toward Competitive Telecommunications Policy, Robert S. Magnant
Scientific, Technological and Institutional Aspects of Water Resource Policy, edited by Yacov Y. Haimes
The ELF Odyssey: National Security Versus Environmental Protection, Lowell L. Klessig and Victor L. Strite
Westview Special Studies in Science, Technology, and Public Policy
Strategies for Conducting Technology Assessments Joe E. Armstrong with Willis W. Harman
Using reviews of special reports and personal interviews with team members of recent National Science Foundation-sponsored assessments, the authors have assembled an eight-step functional strategy for conducting technology assessments. The steps are set within a framework that embodies the three key elements of all assessments: technology description and alternative projection of the technology into the future; impact analysis and comparison; and policy analysis. Additionally, six cross-cutting concerns that permeate all the functional aspects are identified as essential to the accomplishment of an effective assessment. A concluding section discusses the practical difficulties involved in conducting technology assessments and makes recommendations to those who would conduct or sponsor assessments.
Joe E. Armstrong is a senior partner of Armstrong Associates, a research firm specializing in technology assessment and related study methodologies. He has had extensive experience in large-scale engineering studies, having directed electronic system laboratories for Sylvania and ESL, Inc., before turning to government and industry consulting.
Willis W. Harman is associate director of the Center for the Study of Social Policy at SRI International and is a professor in the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford University.
Strategies for Conducting Technology Assessments
Joe E. Armstrong
with Willis W. Harman
This book was prepared with the support of NSF Grant ERS-7522788 However any - photo 2
This book was prepared with the support of NSF Grant ERS-7522788. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions, and/or recommendations herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.
First published 1980 by Westview Press
Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 1980 by Stanford University
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Strategies for conducting technology assessments.
(Westview special studies in science, technology, and public policy)
Includes index.
1. Technology assessment. I. Armstrong, Joe E. II. Harman, Willis W. III. Series.
T174.5.S77 303.4'83 80-13406
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-28891-4 (hbk)
Contents
  1. iii
Guide
  1. Tables
  2. Figures
The research reported here was accomplished during 1977. As this book goes to press in 1980, we have chosen to change very little of the original text. The three functional elements and six cross-cutting concerns presented in remain a sound foundation from which to conduct and teach the basic elements of technology assessment.
In a graduate course in technology assessment at San Jose State University, I required students to conduct an actual sample technology assessment similar to the classroom presentation of our methodology. That effort was of necessity cursory, but nonetheless we believe actual experience with the process is important in appreciating the complexities and subtleties of conducting an assessment. Very seldom do research teams have the luxury of time and funds to apply the full effort each of the functional and cross-cutting elements might call for; giving students repeated opportunities to experience the entire process, no matter how short the time allotted for each repetition, is perhaps the single most useful exercise for those who would teach or conduct technology assessments.
Joe E. Armstrong
The National Science Foundation (NSF) is in the process of reviewing and evaluating the art and practice of technology assessment (TA), both within its own program and as carried out in other government agencies. The objective of the NSF review is to seek answers to the following questions-.
  • What useful results have been achieved from NSF-sponsored TA's to date?
  • To what degree have TA's provided guidance for major policy decisions?
  • Have study strategies, methodologies, or procedures demonstrated cumulative refinement and usefulness for the conduct of TA's?
  • From case studies of completed TA's, what lessons have been learned and what can be done to aid NSF in better selecting and guiding future efforts, to assist those responsible for conducting assessments, and to make the results more useful to the intended users?
A trio of projects were commissioned by NSF to aid in this comprehensive review, and two of them were conducted in cooperation with the Stanford University project reported in this book. All of the projects used personal interviews and questionnaire contact with teams who have conducted a substantial number of TA's: the University of Michigan effort concentrated on output format to determine how best to meet user needs; the Georgia Institute of Technology effort emphasized team integration; and the Stanford University project concentrated on overall assessment strategy and methodology. Our report directs specific attention toward the third and fourth objectives of the NSF evaluation, thus contributing to the other objectives in only a general way.
Our project was monitored for NSF by Dr. G. Patrick Johnson under the direction of Dr. Joshua Menkes. Their extensive knowledge of past and ongoing assessment was invaluable, and they were instrumental in our decision to place more emphasis on validation techniques.
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