Mark D. Brewer - Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process

Parties and Elections in America

Parties and Elections in America

The Electoral Process

Seventh Edition

Mark D. Brewer

University of Maine

L. Sandy Maisel

Colby College

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Brewer, Mark D.

Parties and elections in America : the electoral process / Mark D. Brewer, L. Sandy Maisel. Seventh edition.

pages cm

Revised edition of: Parties and elections in America : the electoral process / L. Sandy Maisel and Mark D. Brewer. 6th ed., c2012.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4422-4984-4 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-4973-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-4974-5 (electronic) 1. ElectionsUnited States. 2. Political campaignsUnited States. 3. Political partiesUnited States. I. Maisel, Louis Sandy, 1945 II. Title.

JK1965.M35 2016

324.973dc23

2015027164

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information SciencesPermanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.

Printed in the United States of America

Contents

FIGURES

Two-Party Competition in Twentieth and Twenty-first-Century Presidential Elections

Two-Party Competition in the Twentieth and Twenty-first Century Senate

Two-Party Competition in the Twentieth and Twenty-first Century House of Representatives

Party Division Prior to Realignment on Slavery Issue

Stress on Party System Caused by Slavery Issue

Party System after Realignment on Slavery

Turnout in Presidential and Midterm Elections, 19482014

Voter Turnout by Race, 19642012

Voter Turnout by Age, 19642012

Voter Turnout by Gender, 19642012

Funnel of Causality

Electoral Success of Incumbent Representatives, 19802014

Electoral Success of Incumbent Senators, 19802014

Electoral Success of Incumbent Governors, 19802014

Turnout in Iowa Caucuses, 19682012

Nonparty Independent Expenditures in Congressional Elections, 19782014

General Election Spending by Major Party Presidential Candidates, 19522012

Mean House Campaign Expenditure, by Party, 1974, 1984, 19902012

Mean House Campaign Expenditure, by Candidate Status, 1974, 1984, 19902012

Mean Senate Campaign Expenditure, by Party, 1974, 1984, 19902012

Mean Senate Campaign Expenditure, by Candidate Status, 1974, 1984, 19902012

PAC Contributions to Congressional Elections, 19742014, in millions of dollars

PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates by Candidate Status, 2014

Structure of a Modern Campaign

Party Unity Votes in Congress, 19542013

Party Unity Scores in the House, 19542013

Party Unity Scores in the Senate, 19542013

TABLES

Elections Held in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 20102015

Term-Limited States

Black Voter Registration in Southern States, 19602012

Registered Voters and Percentage of Voter Turnout, 19882012

How V.O. Key Would Have Characterized Voters after the 2012 Election (major party supporters only)

Party Identification, 19522012

Types of Organizations and Examples of Associations

Growth of Political Action Committees, 19742014

Top Ten PACs in Contributions to Federal Candidates, 20132014

Funding Sources for Congressional Candidates, 1974, 1984, 19942012

PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates by Party, 19982014

Top Ten Outside Groups in Federal Campaign Spending, 2014 Election Cycle

Electoral Context of Gubernatorial Elections

Offices at the Top of the Ballot

Third Parties on the 2012 Congressional, Gubernatorial, or Presidential Ballot in at Least One State

Number of Presidential Primaries and the Percentage of Delegates Selected in Them, 19682012

Money Raised by Major Party Candidates for Presidential Nominations, 2012

Sitting Senators Seeking Their Partys Presidential Nomination, 19682012

Americans Primary Source of News About Government and Politics, MarchApril 2014

Party Leadership in the House, April 2015

Party Leadership in the Senate, April 2015

Mark D. Brewer is Professor of Political Science and member of the Honors College faculty at the University of Maine. His research interests focus generally on political behavior, with specific research areas including partisanship and electoral behavior at both the mass and elite levels, the linkages between public opinion and public policy, and the interactions that exist between religion and politics in the United States. Brewer is the author or editor of a number of books and articles in academic journals, with the most recent being Polarization and the Politics of Personal Responsibility (with Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Oxford University Press, 2015), The Parties Respond , 5th edition (with L. Sandy Maisel, Westview Press, 2013), Party Images in the American Electorate (Routledge, 2009), and Dynamics of American Political Parties (with Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Cambridge University Press, 2009). He is also the editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Political Science .

L. Sandy Maisel is the William R. Kenan, Jr. Professor and chair of the Department of Government at Colby College. A former (unsuccessful) candidate for Congress, Maisel is the author or editor of more than twenty books focusing on American political parties and elections. His articles, many of which emerged out of the path-breaking Candidate Emergence Study, have appeared in the American Political Science Review , the American Journal of Political Science , the Journal of Politics , and other political science journals and anthologies of research on American elections.

The 2008 presidential election was one of the most compelling races in American history. The 2010 midterm elections produced the largest seat gain for one party in the House of Representatives since 1948. The partisan winners in each cycle were of course dramatically different. The 2012 presidential contest saw incumbent President Barack Obama win a second term rather easily, while in 2014 Republicans expanded their control of the U.S. House of Representatives and took control of the Senate from the Democrats. Again, a dramatic difference in partisan outcomes. What are we to make of this?

The 2008 presidential election was an intense and gripping affair, and Obamas victory in combination with the Democrats increasing their majorities in both houses of Congress led many to proclaim the start of a new Democratic era in American electoral politics. The Republican party was in dire straits, and the triumphant Democrats had the chance to enact some major changes in American politics. The Democrats did indeed deliver major policy shifts. They did not, however, reap any political benefit from their accomplishments, at least not in the short term. Energized by anti-incumbent and anti-Obama sentimentmanifested most prominently in the Tea Party movementRepublicans dramatically regained control of the House of Representatives, and significantly closed the gap in the Senate. The 2010 midterm elections were perhaps the most intense midterm contests in recent memory, and the Republicans worked this to their advantage. Obama revised his powerful campaign machine in 2012 and fought off a challenge from the solid but ultimately uninspiring Mitt Romney. But by 2014 Obama was deeply unpopular, and the Republicans took advantage, cleaning up not only at the congressional level but at the state level as well. Clearly we live in exciting political times where either party can win or lose elections. Fortunately, our current political situation also represents a fruitful learning experience.