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Frances E. Lee - Insecure Majorities: Congress and the Perpetual Campaign

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Frances E. Lee Insecure Majorities: Congress and the Perpetual Campaign
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As Democrats and Republicans continue to vie for political advantage, Congress remains paralyzed by partisan conflict. That the last two decades have seen some of the least productive Congresses in recent history is usually explained by the growing ideological gulf between the parties, but this explanation misses another fundamental factor influencing the dynamic. In contrast to politics through most of the twentieth century, the contemporary Democratic and Republican parties compete for control of Congress at relative parity, and this has dramatically changed the parties incentives and strategies in ways that have driven the contentious partisanship characteristic of contemporary American politics.
WithInsecure Majorities,Frances E. Lee offers a controversial new perspective on the rise of congressional party conflict, showing how the shift in competitive circumstances has had a profound impact on how Democrats and Republicans interact. For nearly half a century, Democrats were the majority party, usually maintaining control of the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Republicans did not stand much chance of winning majority status, and Democrats could not conceive of losing it. Under such uncompetitive conditions, scant collective action was exerted by either party toward building or preserving a majority. Beginning in the 1980s, that changed, and most elections since have offered the prospect of a change of party control. Lee shows, through an impressive range of interviews and analysis, how competition for control of the government drives members of both parties to participate in actions that promote their own partys image and undercut that of the opposition, including the perpetual hunt for issues that can score political points by putting the opposing party on the wrong side of public opinion. More often than not, this strategy stands in the way of productive bipartisan cooperationand it is also unlikely to change as long as control of the government remains within reach for both parties.

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Insecure Majorities
Insecure Majorities
Congress and the Perpetual Campaign

FRANCES E. LEE

The University of Chicago Press

CHICAGO & LONDON

FRANCES E. LEE is professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland.

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637

The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London

2016 by The University of Chicago

All rights reserved. Published 2016.

Printed in the United States of America

25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 1 2 3 4 5

ISBN -13: 978-0-226-40899-6 (cloth)

ISBN -13: 978-0-226-40904-7 (paper)

ISBN -13: 978-0-226-40918-4 (e-book)

DOI : 10.7208/chicago/9780226409184.001.0001

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Lee, Frances E., author.

Title: Insecure majorities : Congress and the perpetual campaign / Frances E. Lee.

Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2016. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2016001723 | ISBN 9780226408996 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226409047 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226409184 (e-book)

Subjects: LCSH : Political partiesUnited States. | United States. Congress. | Representative government and representation. | ElectionsUnited States.

Classification: LCC JK 2265 . L 38 2016 | DDC 328.73/0769dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2016001723

Picture 2 This paper meets the requirements of ANSI / NISO Z 39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper).

To Emery and Beverly

Contents

Coauthored with Timothy L. Cordova

Coauthored with Kelsey L. Hinchliffe

In writing this book, I have incurred numerous debts. Most importantly, this book would not have been possible without the generosity of the former and current congressional staffers and members who sat down with me for interviews. They gave freely of their time to answer my questions, even though they had many more important things to do. Several also put me in touch with other interview subjects who had backgrounds or experiences relevant to my project. Their perspectives and insights tremendously enriched my understanding of congressional politics and shaped the book in innumerable ways.

I am grateful to the University of Maryland and the Government and Politics Department for supporting my research. A sabbatical and a Research and Scholarship Award from the graduate school together gave me a year off from teaching responsibilities in order to research and write. I had fantastic research support from Kelsey Hinchliffe (coauthor of ). I had great help tracking down sources from Judy Markowitz and other staff at McKeldin Library. I benefited repeatedly from feedback at the departments American Politics Workshop and from many graduate students in the program, especially Mike Parrott. Mike Hanmer offered key methodological assistance. Jim Gimpel, Irwin Morris, Stella Rouse, Kris Miler, and Lily Mason provided valuable comments. I particularly thank my colleagues David Karol and Ric Uslaner, who read the entire manuscript and helped improve it in many ways large and small.

I have also had much help from beyond my home institution. Walter Oleszek gave me access to his amazing archives at the Congressional Research Service, along with much great advice. Bruce Oppenheimer pressed me to get outside the comfort of my office to interview Capitol Hill insiders. Matt Green offered good counsel on conducting interviews. Richard Forgette shared his data on the frequency of party meetings in the House of Representatives.

This book took shape in response to the comments and criticisms I received at workshops and presentations over the past five years, including at UC Berkeley, the University of Chicago, Northwestern, the University of Minnesota, Stanford, the University of North Carolina, Oxford, Yale, the University of Texas, UC San Diego, UC Davis, the University of Illinois, Cornell, and the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association. I especially benefited from the Congress and History Conferences at Columbia and Vanderbilt. I cannot adequately thank the many people whose remarks and questions in these settings helped me improve this project, but Id like to single out Mo Fiorina, Rick Valelly, Tony Madonna, Adam Myers, and Collin Paschall, who each provided thoughtful discussant comments. I also thank Brian Gaines for suggesting the idea for .

For feedback on key parts of this project, I thank Eric Schickler, Jenny Mansbridge, David Broockman, and Daniel Stid. I owe very special thanks to the scholars outside my home institution who read complete drafts of the book: David Mayhew, Sam Kernell, and Jim Curry. Their comments sharpened the analysis and saved me from numerous errors. The reports from the anonymous readers secured by University of Chicago Press were also tremendously helpful.

I am grateful to my longtime editor John Tryneski, whose guidance made this a better book and whose enthusiasm for the project continually encouraged me to get it done. I also thank others at the press, especially Rodney Powell and Jillian Tsui. For expert and careful copyediting, I thank Daniel King.

This book would never have come together without the love and support of my family. My husband, Emery, read and commented on everything, as he has ever since the first paper I wrote in graduate school. My daughter, Beverly, inspires me daily with her humor, cheerfulness, and curiosity. Both Emery and Beverly have tolerated me putting in too much time at the office working on this book. It is dedicated to them.

The Ins versus the Outs

The central variable in a party system is the level of competitiveness. Joseph Schlesinger (1985, 1154)

Today, in 2016, the Democratic and Republican Parties face each other at roughly equal strength. Almost every election offers the prospect of a change of party control over one national institution or another. Since 1980, Democrats and Republicans have each held the presidency about half the time. The Senate majority changed hands seven times between 1980 and 2016, with Democrats and Republicans each in the majority for nine Congresses. The House majority shifted three times during the same period, also with Democrats and Republicans each holding the majority for nine Congresses. Nearly three decades have elapsed since the last presidential landslide. Divided government is the norm. Margins of control in Congress are persistently narrow. Both parties can generally count on receiving between 47 and 53 percent of all the votes cast in congressional elections any given year. In 2002, The Economist magazine dubbed the United States the 5050 nation, and subsequent elections have altered the picture little. The two parties remain locked in a ferocious power struggle for control of US national government.

Yet it has not always been so. For decades after 1932, Democrats were, by all appearances, the nations majority party. Democrats maintained majority control of both the House and the Senate for nearly a half century between 1933 and 1981, interrupted only by two brief Republican interludes (194748 and 195354). The Democrats controlled the presidency two-thirds of the time during this period. Divided government was atypical. The Democrats margins usually seemed insurmountable. On average, Democrats held 60 percent of the seats and, with some frequency, majorities of 2:1. Even after Richard Nixon won one of the presidencys largest popular-vote shares ever in 1972, Democrats still held 57 Senate seats and 291 House seats, and their margins swelled further in the 1974 midterms. In the Congress of this era, Democrats were something of a party of state (Mayhew 1974, 104).

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