Katherine H. Pherson - Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

In Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, the Phersons have provided an invaluable road map for anyone seeking to improve the ability to conceptualize, research, and write compelling analysis. It stands apart from other literature in making a persuasive case for critical thinking up front to pave the way for clarity of message and rigor in argumentation. It is simply a must-read for any serious student of intelligence analysis.

Fran Moore, former Director of Intelligence, US Central Intelligence Agency

Critical thinking is essential for solid business decision making. The good news is that it can be learned. In the challenging post-pandemic business environment, only companies taking the best thought-through decisions will flourish. Kathy and Randy Pherson provide their Ivy League business school quality of thinking to support you to do just that. This book illuminates how to find and weigh the data you need, validate your data sources, structure your decision logic, and report your conclusions in a persuasive way. One of my best business decisions was to embed in my own work the logic and checklists featured in their book.

Erik Elgersma, Director, Strategic Analysis Services BV, The Netherlands; author, Strategic Analysis Cycle Handbook

No one has given more thought to the improvement and the teaching of analytic techniques than Kathy and Randy Pherson. The third edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is a welcome update of their nowmust-have book. Dealing with an increasing flow of incoming information and creating from that well-written, thoughtful analysis is a daunting challenge. This book is well organized, extremely accessible, and profusely illustrated with useful figures. It will continue to benefit analystsin all fields, not just intelligenceas well as managers of analysts and those who teach courses on analysis.

Mark M. Lowenthal, former US Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production

The third edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence is an outstanding contribution to one of the most important aspects of intelligence practice globally and often one of the most overlooked and least understood. The focus of the book encapsulates the very essence of critical thinking in strategic intelligence. It will resonate with intelligence professionals tasked with producing quality strategic intelligence product both in their analysis of the data collected and in writing the final product. The book builds successfully on earlier editions; it amplifies important principles and complements other research into critical thinking and strategic intelligence. The book makes a significant contribution to the body of knowledge on this essential feature of intelligence analysis and practice. As a retired senior intelligence manager and now president of the Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers, I appreciate the value of this book and congratulate Kathy and Randy Pherson for their dedication to the craft.

Philip Kowalick, President, Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers

Kathy and Randy Pherson artfully weave together scholarship and experience in this update to their foundational work. The book revealsnot answerssomething much more important: how to ask questions. It provides readers the skills they need to navigate the ocean of the often-conflicting, irrelevant, and incorrect information in which we all live today.

Alan Wade, former Chief Information Officer, US Intelligence Community

In an era where reliance on large volumes of information and associated data analytics will grow exponentially to provide indications and warning, the application of critical thinking to provide decision advantage for all decision makers will grow proportionally. The wide array of national security threats continues to expand, as we are reminded by the most recent pandemic that has affected the lives of tens of millions of people. Objective, data-driven analysis will remain the bedrock of what any national or tactical decision maker will require from intelligence professionals, and we can all benefit from this book to provide the tradecraft for achieving sound analysis.

David Shedd, former Acting Director, US Defense Intelligence Agency

Critical thinking is a fundamental part of any learning process, and when uncertainties in information are present, humans are prone to making misjudgments and errors. The knowledge in this book, drawn from both practical examples and well-researched methods, gives you the basic tools you need to provide your peers and stakeholders with nuanced views. Whether you are a seasoned professional or just getting started, working as a government analyst or as a high school teacher, these are tools you should know as part of the craft.

Tommy Skaug, Norwegian National Cyber Security Centre

The range of possible answers to a seemingly simple question can expand in many directions.