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Charles K. Ebinger - Energy and Security in South Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?

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Charles K. Ebinger Energy and Security in South Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?
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Economic growth and burgeoning populations have put South Asias energy security in a perilous state. Already energy and power shortages are stunting development in some of the regions least developed locations spurring political insurgences and social dislocation. Should this trend continue, Ebinger argues the Subcontinent will face dire economic, social and political crises. In Energy and Security in South Asia, Brookings ESI director Charles Ebinger, a long-time adviser to South Asian governments, lays out the current regional energy picture arguing that the only way to achieve sustainable energy security is through regional collaboration both within the subcontinent as well as with regional neighbors in the Middle East and Central and Southeast Asia,

Dr. Ebinger commences by illustrating the present-day energy environment in each nation as well as the obstacles governments confront in addressing them. Among the issues examined are: (1) the technical strains that near double-digit economic growth are putting on Indias dilapidated power infrastructure, (2) the economic costs the country is incurring by increasing reliance on the Middle East for oil and gas resources; (3) the prospects for expanded wind, solar, energy efficiency and nuclear power generation in India to help reduce the nations growing carbon footprint as it accelerates the use of coal; (4) the implications of Pakistans expanded use of coal; (5) an analysis of how poor energy pricing systems are bringing about an energy shortage throughout the region (6) an examination of how strains in Indo/Bengali relations threaten the construction of vital regional energy infrastructure projects; (7) a discussion of how continued political upheaval in Nepal is causing power shortages of up to 20 hours per day; and (8), an analysis of how hydropower development is fuelling Bhutans Gross National Happiness campaign. In addition to individual domestic concerns, each nation shares a crisis whereby hundreds of millions on the Subcontinent lack access to electricity and burn inefficient resources such as fuel wood and biomass for lighting, heating, and cooking, thus contributing sizeable carbon emissions.

The looming Indian Subcontinent energy crisis will force more than half a billion people and countingfrom emerging from dire poverty, thus potentially sparking domestic and regional instability in an already treacherous area.

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CHARLES K. EBINGER
ENERGY AND
SECURITY IN
SOUTH ASIA
Cooperation or Conflict?
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
Washington, D.C.
Copyright 2011
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Ebinger, Charles K.
Energy and security in South Asia : cooperation or conflict? / Charles K. Ebinger.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: Argues that mistrust, ethnic and religious sectarianism, and political parochialism among the nations of South Asia, a region of strategic geopolitical importance, prevent the region from achieving energy security, which is crucial for economic development and political stability. Recommends measures to improve energy security through domestic policy reform and more effective bilateral and multilateral cooperationProvided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-8157-0411-9 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Power resourcesAsia, South. 2. Energy policyAsia, South. I. Title.
HD9502.A782E25 2011
333.790954dc23 2011030307
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Cynthia Stock
Silver Spring, Maryland
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
This book is dedicated to my wife, Putnam, who pressed me
onward to tell the story of opportunities lost in South Asia
during the more than thirty years that I worked in the region.
I will always treasure her unflagging support, determination
that I tell this story, and willingness to help refine my thinking.
This book is also dedicated to my good friend and mentor,
Daud Beg, a raconteur and dedicated Pakistani government
official who taught me to love the Great Game and
shared with me the location of its remaining relics.
Dim streetlights were glowing down on the pavement on
either side of the traffic; and in that orange-hued half light,
I could see multitudes of small, thin, grimy people squatting,
waiting for a bus to take them somewhere, or with nowhere
to go and about to unfurl a mattress right there. These poor
bastards had come from the Darkness to Delhi to find
some lightbut they were still in the darkness.
Aravind Adiga, The White Tiger
Preface
T his book argues that a legacy of suspicion, mistrust, ethnic sectarianism, and political parochialism among the nations of South Asia, toward both each other and their regional neighbors, has prevented the region from achieving energy security, one of its most critical needs for development. It is based on my work with these nations over a period of thirty-six years on a wide array of technical assistance and research projects conducted directly with the energy ministries and organizations in each country and on behalf of a number of international agencies, including the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Asia Society. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of other members of the technical assistance teams or individuals in the sponsoring institutions.
I, like many other foreign policy specialists, have been fascinated by the region's diversity and numerous contradictions. As a cultural crossroads throughout history, South Asia has grown over time and today hosts some of the world's largest urban areas, congested with people of different races, religions, and ethnicities. This polyglot of humanity believes in different gods; speaks countless languages and dialects; has diverse social, economic, and political institutions; and often has conflicting mores and values. It is a region of rich spirituality, hosting some of the world's greatest and oldest religions, including Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Jainism, all of which convey their mutual dreams of a better life through classic religious texts, shrines, art, literature, and music.
At the heart of this fragile amalgamation of differing ideologies and customs is a history of entrenched internal, regional, and international mistrust and skepticism. Decades of corruption and unevenand sometimes discriminatorydevelopment has led to public wariness in domestic political processes. Suspicion of domestic polity by many citizens is surpassed only by distrust of other countries, in the region and beyond. Several countries on the Subcontinent were subjects of colonial masters whose divide and conquer policies are still evident in today's political discourse.
In addition, the region is garnering interest more specifically for its vital strategic importance in the world. It houses some of the most dynamic economies, which tempt investors from all over the world with high growth rates and large and growing consumer markets. How the economies and governments of the region, which is home to nearly 2 billion people, develop will have an impact on local, regional, and international geopolitical relationships for generations to come. Dismissing the importance of the regionwhich is anchored by India, soon to be the world's most populous countryis perilous. The success of India's democracy, the world's largest, will have profound implications for societies throughout the world, especially when juxtaposed against more authoritarian regimes. The region also is arguably the most dangerous on earth, as nuclear-armed India and Pakistan hold their uneasy ground in their enduring conflict over Kashmir. Nearby, a nuclear-armed China watches with interest, as does the United States. Besides the tenuous security dynamic that threatens the region, a number of exogenous factors loom ominously over the region. For example, the Subcontinent's vulnerability to the effects of climate change and water scarcity could create a wave of climate-induced refugees, with potentially devastating consequences.
Any region facing such a confluence of challenges requires constant economic and social support to maintain stability and to help prevent the ignition of widespread unrest. Under that assumption, energy security is a critical component of regional stability, both for its ability to support economic development and for its ability to provide national security. Indeed, it is the broad mosaic of energy issues that crisscross the region and influence its future stability that led me to look at the region's present and future prospects through the prism of enhanced access to energy.
For those seeking a clear path forward along which South Asia can move from energy darkness into the light of modern commercial energy, this book may prove disappointing. Decades of mismanagement by the region's political elite has so failed the people in providing energy resources that governments no longer have the luxury of enacting policies that allow them to hand-pick an energy mix. Instead, they urgently need to move simultaneously on all policy fronts (from deploying both conventional and alternative fuels to enacting broad end-use efficiency and conservation programs and institutional and regulatory reform). That in itself is a Herculean task; however, it is complicated by fiscal constraints, political obstacles, and limited institutional capacity.
Some readers may find the narrative difficult to follow. The landscape covered by this topic is cluttered with myriad organizations involved in energy policy formulation and energy development governed under a byzantine network of laws, regulations, rules, and ordinances; this state of affairs is exacerbated by the complex interplay of political personalities and other forces (such as ethnicity and religion). For this, I ask forbearance. Owing to the relative dearth of scholarship on the energy dimension of South Asian politics and economics, I have tried to write the book not only for a general audience but also for regional policymakers and energy professionals interested in the region so that they can better understand energy security in a regional context and thereby make better-informed decisions. For convenience, following this preface, I have included a brief list of policy prescriptions that summarize the central arguments of the book.
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