MELBOURNE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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First published 2019
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9780522875935 (paperback)
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Foreword
The end of uncertainty? How the 2019 federal el ection might bring stability at last to Australian politics
Michelle Grattan
For the second federal election out of three, a change of government is in prospect a long time out from voting day.
Labor has been consistently ahead in the polls, despite its leader, Bill Shorten, remaining unpopular. Its a repeat of 2013, when the Coalition had polled strongly through the governments term while opposition leader Tony Abbotts ratings were low.
But campaigns can count, and upsets can come, as happened dramatically in 1993. Right up to the Saturday of that poll the Keating government had appeared doomed.
A key point about this next election is that, whichever side wins in May, the incoming government will inherit a bitter, sceptical, exhausted electorate.
Australians are over their politicians. All the stridency, the bad behaviour, the lying, the relentless campaigning, the judgment by opinion poll, and the media shrillness have taken their toll on the tolerance of the average voter.
The election will be fought in this climate of unprecedented public distrust of politics and cynicism about its practitioners.
This disillusionment has been turbo-charged by the bipartisan cannibalism that has toppled multiple prime ministers in a remarkably short period.
If Labor wins, polling analyst John Stirton says,
... it will be the second change of government in a row that will be a negative change rather than a positive change. Negative in the sense that voters may once again elect an unpopular opposition leader, with their desire to get rid of a poorly performing incumbent government outweighing any concerns they may have about the opposition that will replace it.
The public sullenness will make the task of the next government harder, whether Labor or Coalition.
Contrast the mood in 1983, when Labors Bob Hawke was given power by voters who not only wanted to embrace him personally, but felt more trust towards leaders generally than today. Though it wasnt smooth sailing, this helped the Hawke government undertake major, difficult reforms. He was even afforded a degree of tolerance when he broke some promises.
In 2007, Australians were also in a relatively positive frame of mind when they turned to Kevin Rudd. Since then, the national mood has gone downhill.
Labor went through self-imposed hell between 2010 and 2013, set off by the ill-judged 2010 dumping of Rudd. But out of office it recovered remarkably quickly.
Labors bold big target approach
As the opposition shaped up over the past two terms, it has made relatively few major mistakes (Shortens boast that his MPs had no problems under Section 44 of the Constitution was one).
Of course, that assumes being bold and taking big risks with policy doesnt turn out to be the ultimate mistake.
Labor has eschewed the small target approach favoured by John Howard in 1996 and indeed Rudd in 2007.
Its proposed crackdowns on negative gearing and cash refunds for franking credits are designed to maximise its pot of spending money as well as fix flaws in the tax system.
Monash Universitys Paul Strangio, an expert on prime ministers, suggests this policy adventurism may also have been motivated by Labors determination to obtain a positive mandate for government. After all, the rot began for the Abbott government when measures in its 2014 budget were not just harsh but unflagged in opposition.
But Labors controversial policies leave it exposed to scare campaigns. Each measure has a significant number of losersretirees, especially, are highly sensitive to anything that hits their cash flow.
Border security is one area where Labor has tried to stay as close as possible to the government. But it had little choice but to back the crossbench-initiated legislation facilitating medical transfers from Manus Island and Nauru. Despite Shorten securing middle ground amendments, this opened another front for Coalition scare tactics.
Shorten has kept an impressive degree of unity and discipline in his party, despite the obvious ambitions of his rival Anthony Albanese, whose gloved hand was ready to strike if the opposition leader did badly in the July 2018 Super Saturday byelections.
But many questions remain about Shorten. Strangio raises an important one: While he has been an effective manager of a team in opposition, how will this translate into governmentfor example, what degree of licence will he give to senior ministers like Chris Bowen?
Coalition its own worst enemy
In contrast to Labor, the Coalition has squandered this parliamentary termand, for that matter, the one before. Its follies have given the opposition repeated advantages.
After a bad campaign, Malcolm Turnbull had the closest of calls in 2016, being returned with a one-seat majority and a bitterly fractured Liberal Party. A vengeful Abbott led the dissent, determined to inflict revenge for the 2015 coup that had ousted him.
The Liberals have presented to the public as warring tribes who cant agree on policy or personnel. Infighting over ideologyespecially on energy policyand leadership climaxed last August with Turnbulls overthrow and the installation of Scott Morrison, beneficiary of a putsch instigated by Peter Dutton.
The rise of an aggressive right within the Liberals and growing antipathy towards the main parties have encouraged the popularity of community independents. Those of particular interest in this election are pitching to progressive, right-of-centre voters in heartland conservative seats. Several are backed by strong local citizen movements and are attracting significant funding.
Eyes will focus on whether Zali Steggall can dislodge Abbott in Warringah, and Kerryn Phelps can retain Wentworth, which she won at the byelection following Turnbulls departure. Julia Banks, the member for the Victorian seat of Chisholm who defected from the Liberals to the crossbench, is running in Flinders against Health Minister Greg Hunt.
NVERSATION
