Shai Feldman - Technology and Strategy: Future Trends

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TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY

Future Trends

The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (JCSS)

The Center for Strategic Studies was established at Tel Aviv University at the end of 1977. In 1983 it was named the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in honor of Mr. and Mrs. Mel Jaffee. The objective of the Center is to contribute to the expansion of knowledge on strategic subjects and to promote public understanding of and pluralistic thought on matters of national and international security.

The Center relates to the concept of strategy in its broadest meaning, namely, the complex of processes involved in the identification, mobilization and application of resources in peace and war, in order to solidify and strengthen national and international security.

JCSS International Board of Trustees

Chairman: Melvin Jaffee

Immediate Past Chairman: Joseph H. Strelitz (deceased)

Robert H. Arnow, Arnold Y. Aronoff, Newton D. Becker, Jack Berlin, Henry Borenstein, Edgar M. Bronfman, Simon Chilewich, Stewart M. Colton, Lester Crown, Joseph K. Eichenbaum, Danielle and Shimon Erem, Allan Fainbarg, Dr. Gerald Falwell, Jacob Feldman, Arnold D. Feuerstein, David Furman, Guilford Glazer, Eugene M. Grant, Vernon Green, Irving B. Harris, Robert M. Hecht, Betty and Sol Jaffee, Marvin Josephson, Philip M. Klutznick, Raymond Kulek, Max L. Kunianski, Mark Lambert, Rose Lederer, Fred W. Lessing, Morris L. Levinson, Edward Levy, Peter A. Magowan, Hermann Merkin, Stephen Meadow, Monte MonAster, Max Perlman, Milton J. Petrie, Gary P. Ratner, Raphael Recanati, Meshulam Riklis, Morris Rodman, Elihu Rose, Malcolm M. Rosenberg, Irving Schneider, Marvin Simon, Ruth Sinaiko, Walter P. Stern, Dr. Robert J, Stoller, Leonard R. Strelitz, James Warren, David Warsaw, Jack D. Weiler, Marvin A. Weiss, Emanuel A. Winston, Bert Wolstein, Paul Yanowicz

Technology and Strategy

Future Trends

edited by
Shai Feldman

First published 1989 by Westview Press

Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1989 by Tel Aviv University, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Feldman, Shai, 1950
Technology and strategy: future trends / edited by Shai Feldman.
p. cm.(Publications of the Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies, Tel Aviv University)
ISBN 0-8133-0959-X
1. Strategy. 2. Weapons systems. 3. Military art and science.
I. Title. II. Series.
U163.F45 1990
355.02dc20 89-33022
CIP

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-28968-3 (hbk)

Table of Contents

1. I. The Future of Weapons Technology
   Trends in Conventional Weapons Technology
2. II. Doctrine and Technology in the Soviet Union
   Current Trends in Soviet Thinking on Weapons Development
3. III. The Future Sea and Air Battlefield
   The Future Naval Battle
4. IV. New Technologies and the Land Battle
   The Land Battle of the 1990s
5. V. Implications of New Weapons Technologies
   Can High Tech Save NATO?
6. VI. Technology, Doctrine, Strategy, and Stability
   Conventional Ballistic Missiles and the Risks of Nuclear Escalation in Central Europe
7. VII. Research, Development and Production
   The Baroque Arsenal in Perspective
8. VIII. Summary
   Technology and Strategy: Concluding Remarks

1. I. The Future of Weapons Technology
   Trends in Conventional Weapons Technology
2. II. Doctrine and Technology in the Soviet Union
   Current Trends in Soviet Thinking on Weapons Development
3. III. The Future Sea and Air Battlefield
   The Future Naval Battle
4. IV. New Technologies and the Land Battle
   The Land Battle of the 1990s
5. V. Implications of New Weapons Technologies
   Can High Tech Save NATO?
6. VI. Technology, Doctrine, Strategy, and Stability
   Conventional Ballistic Missiles and the Risks of Nuclear Escalation in Central Europe
7. VII. Research, Development and Production
   The Baroque Arsenal in Perspective
8. VIII. Summary
   Technology and Strategy: Concluding Remarks

1. ii

Guide

This monograph provides the highlights of an international conference held by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies on March 21-24, 1987, at Neve Ilan, Israel. The conference was cosponsored by the Center for Foreign Policy Options, Los Angeles.

The project could not have been conceived and implemented without the vision and active support of Major General (Res.) Aharon Yariv, Head of the Jaffee Center. We are also indebted to Prof. Steven Spiegel, of the University of California, Los Angeles, for persuading the Center for Foreign Policy Options to cosponsor the conference. And much gratitude should be expressed to Shimon Erem of Los Angeles for playing a key role in raising the funds required and for providing a generous personal contribution toward this end.

We are also grateful for the critically important financial assistance provided by the conference's supporters. Principal Supporters: Israel Military Industries; RAFAEL, Israel Weapons Development Authority; the Israeli Ministry of Defense; and the United States Information Service. Associate Supporters: Israel Aircraft Industries Ltd.; Elbit Computers Ltd.; Pazgaz Marketing Co. Ltd.; Paz Oil Co. Ltd.; and ARMAZ-BAGIRA.

The conference could not have succeeded without the help of the Jaffee Center's administrative staff, as well as the professional assistance provided by International Ltd., of Tel Aviv. The wonderful staff at Neve Ilan helped make the event a memorable and most pleasant experience. Finally, we are indebted to the Israel Defense Forces' Military Spokesman's Office for hosting our guests from abroad for a two-day visit to IDF bases and facilities in the Central and Northern Commands.

I would like to express my gratitude to John Wilner, at present a graduate student at Tufts University, who served as my research assistant at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington DC during 1988. John provided dedicated assistance in preparing early drafts of the paper summaries. Finally, a special thanks to Joseph Alpher, the Jaffee Center's Deputy Head, for his help in bringing this monograph to publication.

Shai Feldman

October 1989

Gideon Akavia is a Senior Researcher at CEMA the Center for Military Analyses at RAFAEL, Israel Weapons Development Authority. He was a Senior Science Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Akavia holds a PhD degree in Computer Sciences.

Moshe Barnea was Vice President for Research and Development at RAFAEL, Israel Weapons Development Authority. He was educated as an engineer at the Technion and at City College in New York.

Ze'ev Bonen was Director General of RAFAEL, Israel Weapons Development Authority, where he served for over 34 years. Dr. Bonen received his BSc degree in Electrical Engineering from the Technion, and his PhD degree from Cambridge University.

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