Barry M. Blechman - Fiscal and Economic Implications of Strategic Defenses

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Fiscal and Economic
Implications
of
Strategic Defenses

ABOUT THE BOOK AND AUTHORS

Estimates of the potential costs of alternative strategic defense systems should be an intrinsic element in decisions about whether the United States should develop and deploy these systems, especially because of the "opportunity costs" involvedwhat the nation would have to forgo in other military or civilian programs or in private resources because of higher taxes or larger deficits.

In this book, Drs. Blechman and Utgoff describe four notional strategic defense systems, each with a different ambitious objective, and then estimate their costs. The first system, Alpha, would seek only to make U.S. nuclear retaliatory forces militarily unattractive to attack. The second, Beta, adds limited protection for the forty-seven most densely populated metropolitan areas of the United States and Canada. Space-based components included in the third and fourth systems, Gamma and Delta, provide comprehensive defenses against Soviet long-range missiles and aircraft; these systems also incorporate options to defend against Soviet intermediate-range missiles. Gamma utilizes interceptor missiles deployed on satelites in low-earth orbits to attack Soviet missiles in their boost phase, while Delta employs chemical lasers on satellites for the same purpose. Assumptions and calculations necessary to make the cost estimates are described in specific terms, and the main determinants of the cost of each system are identified.

In the final section of the book, the authors examine the fiscal consequences of expenditures for strategic defenses in four budgetary contexts: the portion of the defense budget that historically has been allocated for strategic forces, the total defense budget, the federal budget overall, and the nation's economy as a whole. The authors conclude that unless far less expensive ways can be found for building strategic defenses, a decision to deploy such weapons would pose very difficult economic choices for the nation.

Barry M. Blechman is president of Defense Forecasts, Inc., and a fellow of The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute. He is the author ofU.S. Security in the Twenty-first Century (Westview, 1986) and coeditor ofInternational Security Yearbook 1984/85 (Westview, 1985). Victor A. Utgoff is a deputy director of the Strategy, Forces and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses.

NUMBER 12

SAIS PAPERS IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Fiscal and Economic
Implications
of
Strategic Defenses

BarryM.BlechmanandVictorA.Utgoff

First published 1986 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1986 by The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 86-51129

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-0656-3 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-5643-5 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429036422

CONTENTS

Introduction

Part 1

COSTS OF NOTIONAL STRATEGIC DEFENSE SYSTEMS

1. Notional Strategic Defense System Alpha: Defense of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces

Size and Characteristics of the Alpha System

Costs of the Alpha Components

2. Notional Strategic Defense System Beta: Defense of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces plus a Partial Population Defense Against Small Attacks

Size and Characteristics of the Additional Elements Necessary to Expand from the Alpha to the Beta System

Costs of the Additional Components Required for the Beta System

3. Notional Strategic Defense System Gamma: A Comprehensive Defense Using Space-Based Missile Interceptors

Size and Characteristics of the Additional Elements Necessary to Transform the Beta System into the Gamma System

Costs of the Incremental Elements of the Gamma System

4. Notional Strategic Defense System Delta: A Comprehensive Defense Using Space-Based Laser Weapons

Assumed Characteristics of a Laser Defense System

Costs of the Delta System

5. Costs of European Complements for a Comprehensive Strategic Defense System

Air and Terminal Missile Defenses in Europe

Improvements to Short-Range Theater Nuclear Forces

Improvements to NATO's Conventional Forces

Total Costs

6. Critical Assumptions and Sensitivities

Part 2

STRATEGIC DEFENSE COSTS IN PERSPECTIVE

7. Strategic Defenses in the Context of Historic Spending Levels for Strategic Forces

8. Strategic Defenses in the Context of the Overall Defense Budget

9. Strategic Defenses in the Context of Total Federal Expenditures

10. Strategic Defenses in the Context of the Nation's Economy

1. Introduction
2. Part 1 COSTS OF NOTIONAL STRATEGIC DEFENSE SYSTEMS
   1. 1. Notional Strategic Defense System Alpha: Defense of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces
      1. Size and Characteristics of the Alpha System
      2. Costs of the Alpha Components
   2. 2. Notional Strategic Defense System Beta: Defense of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces plus a Partial Population Defense Against Small Attacks
      1. Size and Characteristics of the Additional Elements Necessary to Expand from the Alpha to the Beta System
      2. Costs of the Additional Components Required for the Beta System
   3. 3. Notional Strategic Defense System Gamma: A Comprehensive Defense Using Space-Based Missile Interceptors
      1. Size and Characteristics of the Additional Elements Necessary to Transform the Beta System into the Gamma System
      2. Costs of the Incremental Elements of the Gamma System
   4. 4. Notional Strategic Defense System Delta: A Comprehensive Defense Using Space-Based Laser Weapons
      1. Assumed Characteristics of a Laser Defense System
      2. Costs of the Delta System
   5. 5. Costs of European Complements for a Comprehensive Strategic Defense System
      1. Air and Terminal Missile Defenses in Europe
      2. Improvements to Short-Range Theater Nuclear Forces
      3. Improvements to NATO's Conventional Forces
      4. Total Costs
   6. 6. Critical Assumptions and Sensitivities
3. Part 2 STRATEGIC DEFENSE COSTS IN PERSPECTIVE
   1. 7. Strategic Defenses in the Context of Historic Spending Levels for Strategic Forces
   2. 8. Strategic Defenses in the Context of the Overall Defense Budget
   3. 9. Strategic Defenses in the Context of Total Federal Expenditures
   4. 10. Strategic Defenses in the Context of the Nation's Economy

1. ii
2. iii

Guide

ILLUSTRATIONS

1. Figure 1: Annual Cost of Beta System
2. Figure 2: Annual Cost of Gamma System

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