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Pamela S. Falk - Petroleum and Mexicos Future

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Pamela S. Falk Petroleum and Mexicos Future
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Addressing the effects of the 1982 crisis, through the late 1980s, on Mexicos economic and political systems and assessing the countrys potential for entering a period of strong economic growth, contributors to this volume focus on oil, the primary source of Mexicos foreign exchange earnings, and on trade with the United States, the primary mean

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Petroleum and Mexico's Future
Letter from the Americas Society President
The Americas Society is a nonprofit, private institution established in 1981 to coordinate the activities of various U.S. organizations dealing with hemispheric affairs, including matters relevant to Mexico, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and Canada. The Society, which is national in scope, is located in New York City, with affiliates in New York and Washington, including the Center for Inter-American Relations, the Council of the Americas, the Pan American Society of the United States, and Caribbean/Central American Action.
Among the objectives of the Americas Society is to provide a forum for the discussion of issues vital to the hemisphere and to improve understanding of the economic, political, and cultural values of all countries of the Americas. The Americas Society seeks to provide a forum through which leaders from government, business, academia, the media, the arts, politics, and other areas can make their thoughts known to diverse national and international audiences.
It is our hope that this book, along with previous and forthcoming volumes sponsored by the Americas Society and its affiliates, will contribute significantly to the research and commentary on this subject.
Ambassador George W. Landau
About the Book and Editor
Addressing the effects of the 1982 crisis, through the late 1980s, on Mexico's economic and political systems and assessing the country's potential for entering a period of strong economic growth, contributors to this volume focus on oil, the primary source of Mexico's foreign exchange earnings, and on trade with the United States, the primary means for earning foreign exchange. The authors argue that the problems Mexico faced during the crisis period are not over; indeed, the most difficult challenges lie ahead. For the remainder of the century Mexico must earn adequate revenue to service a substantial debt and to permit the economy to grow at a rate that provides opportunity for a labor force already enduring a high rate of unemployment and rising inflation. Contributors agree that the key to Mexico's economic and political stability will be the control of inflation, unemployment, and large public-sector deficits.
Pamela S. Falk is associate director of the Institute of Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University, where she teaches international relations. Professor Falk was formerly the director of the Americas Society's "Mexico Focus" project and director of Latin American Affairs at the Americas Society, Inc./Center for Inter-American Relations. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is on the board of directors of the Caribbean Cultural Center. Her books include The Political Status of Puerto Rico (editor) and Cuban Foreign Policy: Caribbean Tempest.
Published in cooperation with the Americas Society, Inc.
Petroleum and Mexicos Future
edited by
Pamela S. Falk

First published 1987 by Westview Press Inc Published 2019 by Routledge 52 - photo 1
First published 1987 by Westview Press, Inc.
Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 1987 Taylor & Francis
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Petroleum and Mexicos future.
(Westview special studies on Latin America and the
Caribbean)
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Petroleum industry and tradeMexico. 2. Mexico
Economic conditions1970. 3. Debts, ExternalMexico.
4. Labor supplyMexico. I. Falk, Pamela S. II. Series.
HD9574.M6P47 1987 338.2'7282'0972 86-13128
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-28280-6 (hbk)
Contents
, Russell E. Marks, Jr.
, Pamela S. Falk
, Alan J. Stoga
, Susan Kaufman Purcell
, Guy F. Erb
, Alfredo Gutierrez Kirchner
, The Honorable Mario Ramn Beteta
, Edward L. Morse
, Rene Villarreal (translated by Edith Grossman)
  1. ii
  2. iv
Guide
The Center for Inter-American Relations, an affiliate of the Americas Society, in 1984 gathered a group of distinguished Mexican and U.S. businesspeople and policymakers to discuss "Petroleum and Mexico's Future," the beginning of a project on the political impact of Mexico's economy that has culminated with the publication of this book.
When the conference was held, Mexico had already passed through the first shock of illiquidity late in 1982. A unique financial rescue package had been provided by a consortium, including agencies of the U.S. government, international lending institutions, and private commercial banks, to ensure the continued service of the foreign debt. Mexico had also agreed to adjust domestic economic practices to conform with International Monetary Fund guidelines designed to limit inflation. In 1983, as a direct result of the "austerity" measures in the domestic economy and the facilitation of exports, the country had once again generated an export surplus large enough to cover debt service.
The Mexican example of close cooperation with lending institutions and rapid implementation of domestic economic adjustment programs established a precedent for the other debtor countries of Latin America as they confronted similar crises. As our conferees were careful to point out, however, the Mexican recovery was dependent upon petroleum exports. The current export of 1.5 million barrels per day provides about 75 percent of Mexico's export earnings. Therefore, the precipitous decline in petroleum prices that commenced in 1985 may once again jeopardize foreign debt service. It could also have a devastating effect upon domestic economic development programs and, indeed, cause political instability. In fact, the continuing erosion of petroleum prices has increased the pertinence and confirmed the perspicacity of the work included in this book.
Russell E. Marks, Jr.
Senior Vice President, Haley Associates, Inc.
Former President, Americas Society, Inc.
Mexico's oil is a bedeviling subject for policymakers who have to shape policy based on it and for analysts who seek to understand the vicissitudes of the market. Keeping abreast of the dramatic changes in the price of petroleum and the consequent policy changes was difficult and demanding, and necessitated many updates to the manuscript. Accordingly, the Americas Society/Center for Inter-American Relations is enormously grateful to the Mexican government officials and the U.S. and Mexican industry analysts and contributors who displayed such willingness to update their manuscripts as new events required it.
The Mexican oil industry, Petrleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), was able to provide us with updated projections and examinations of the changes in the price of crude oil as well as of the impact those changes would have on Mexico's development plan and the Mexican economy in general. The result is an anthology that is both up to date and far reaching in its analysis. For this, we are grateful to the staff of PEMEX, particularly Mercedes Mazn, and to the New York and Washington regional director, Alfredo Gutierrez Kirchner.
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