Richard Colbey - The Status and Recognition of Post-1992 Transnistria: An Investigation of the Case for de jure Independence

1. 1. Pref. 5 Conclusion: Has the Case for Transnistrian Independence
      Changed Since 2020?
2. Chapter Two: Transnistria As An Economically Viable Nation

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Originally published in 2021 as a thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Buckingham

This expanded and revised version first published by University of Buckingham Press in 2022

Richard Colbey, 2022

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ISBN: 978-1-91505-430-2

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Pref. 5Conclusion: Has the Case for Transnistrian Independence
Changed Since 2020?

CHAPTER TWO: TRANSNISTRIA AS AN ECONOMICALLY
VIABLE NATION

CHAPTER FIVE: HOW CAN TRANSNISTRIA BECOME AN
INDEPENDENT STATE?

5.5 How Strong Are the Barriers to Transnistria Fulfilling Its
Potential for Statehood?

Appendix D: Email from the Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration
(10 October 2019)

This work was largely completed by August 2020 (Colbey p.xiv), though some later developments were incorporated, most significantly the election of a new Moldovan president in December 2020. The ways of the academic and publishing worlds mean that the book was not released until October 2022. This Preface explores what has happened to Transnistria in the intervening time and asks whether the conclusion that it would function well as an independent state (Colbey p.226) but is frustrated by political expediency, particularly Russian interests (Colbey p.227), still applies. The material derives from a visit to Tiraspol on 6 and 7 June 2022, my observations there and interviews with Vladimir Yastrebchak, and Natalia Shchukina, who were as generous with their time as they were when I was preparing the main work, as well as analysis of many media reports.

The south-eastern corner of Europe in which Transnistria lies seems a different place than it did when this work was first completed in 2021. The most obvious development is the war in Ukraine. The ultimate premise of this work is that the longer Transnistria thrives as a de factostate the stronger the case for independence becomes (Colbey p.227). That is qualified by a recognition that there are many barriers to independence at the moment, however strong the case for it may be (Colbey p.218), and indeed comparisons are drawn with previous Russian occupations of the Donbass and Crimea (Colbey p.219). These are the factors the Ukraine war may bear on.

The war in Ukraine has had a polarising effect throughout Europe, with nearly all European countries having condemned Russia, which finds only Belarus, virtually a Russian vassal state, supporting it. Moldova, under its already EU-leaning president Maia Sandu, who ousted Igor Dodon, who was far more sympathetic to Russia, in December 2020, unequivocally sides with Ukraine. Even before the Ukraine war, Sandus government was taking a harder line in opposing Transnistrian independence than did Dodons, and this may be a factor making the attainment of independence more difficult.

Within Transnistria there have been parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2020 and 2021 respectively, with little changing in consequence. President Krasnoselskys re-election was with alarmingly little opposition. The territorys highest profile political prisoner, Oleg Horjan, remains in gaol, and at least one other episode of imprisonment for political reasons has been reported. The economy has proved reasonably resilient to the challenges created by the Ukraine war, though inflation and an increase in emigration have been among the consequences.