Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
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- Book:After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
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- Publisher:Hurst
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- Year:2013
- City:New York
- ISBN:9780199330645
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After The Sheikhs
The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
Christopher M. Davidson
It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Hallidays landmark book Arabia Without Sultans. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written an important account of prospects for the Gulf region Orientalist special pleading doesnt get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.
Ian Black, The GuardianWhat is the secret of the Gulf monarchies survival? There are numerous reasons. The support of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this exceptionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf monarchies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. This fine-tuned monarchical resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive array of evidence.
Ziauddin Sardar, The IndependentBritain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidsons warning should be on the desk of every Foreign Office Minister.
Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights GroupDavidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone at least in their current form within the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.
Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth CollegeAfter the Sheikhs is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of some of the worlds last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.
Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, QatarAt a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neighbours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narrative and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.
Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi ArabiaThis book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC, by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidsons predicted outcome, and by every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to come.
Alaa Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain WatchPREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAEs northernmost emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to traditional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, terror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolutions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and more importantly they strengthened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf monarchies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version contends that most of these regimes at least in their present form will be gone within the next two to five years.
A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and on occasion some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Economics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts.
Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co.
ACRONYMS
ADBIC
Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation
ADEC
Abu Dhabi Executive Council
ADFAD
Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development
ADFD
Abu Dhabi Fund for Development
ADFEC
Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company
ADIA
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
ADNCC
Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council
ADNOC
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
AQAP
Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula
Aramco
Arabian American Oil Company
ATP
Association of Tennis Professionals
Bapco
Bahrain Petroleum Company
BCHR
Bahrain Centre for Human Rights
CENTCOM
US Central Command
CEO
chief executive office
CIA
Central Intelligence Agency (of the US)
CNPC
China National Petroleum Corporation
COM
Council of Ministers (of the UAE)
DIC
Dubai International Capital
DIFC
Dubai International Financial Centre
DLF
Dhofar Liberation Front
DPW
Dubai Ports World
EAD
Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi
ECHR
Emirates Centre for Human Rights
EDB
Economic Development Board (of Bahrain)
EMAL
Emirates Aluminium
ENOC
Emirates National Oil Company
EPPCO
Emirates Petroleum Products Company
F1
Formula One
FIFA
Fdration International de Football Association
FNC
Federal National Council (of the UAE)
FTA
free trade agreement
GCC
Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
GDP
gross domestic product
HH
his highness
HIV
human immunodeficiency virus
HRH
his royal highness
ICBC
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICC
International Criminal Court
ICD
Investment Corporation of Dubai
IDEX
International Defence Exhibition (of Abu Dhabi)
IMF
International Monetary Fund
IPIC
International Petroleum Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)
IPC
Iraqi Petroleum Company
IRENA
International Renewable Energy Agency
ISP
internet service provider
JAFZ
Jebel Ali Free Zone (of Dubai)
JETRO
Japan External Trade Organisation
JODCO
Japan Oil Development Company
KAUST
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
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