Brian Kenny - Ahead of the Curve

Most of the fun on the project has been spending time with my son Peterresearcher, social scientist, and companion through this process. Our road trips and late-night writing sessions are something Ill always remember and treasure. He also asks that if the book bombs, he be completely disassociated from the project. Noted.

To the rest of my beautiful and fascinating children, Alexandra, Lucky, Clare, and Camille, I love you all so much. To my father and mother, Charlie and Cathy Kenny, thank you for your unfailing support and a lifetime of love.

Those who took the time to be interviewed for this book make up quite an incredible group: Bill James, John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Dick Cramer, Peter Gammons, Michael Lewis, John Dewan, Sig Mejdal, Bill DeWitt Jr., Rob Neyer, Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, Dan ODowd, Dr. Joel Fuhrman, and John Sawatsky. I am fortunate to have had access to such an array of distinguished thinkers.

And thank you to those who helped shape my thoughts about life, baseball, and this book: Marc Adelberg, Greg Amsinger, Sanford Appel, Marc Appleman, Teddy Atlas, Perry Lee Barber, Lou Barricelli, Johnny Bench, Carter Berardi, Al Bernstein, Yogi Berra, Bruce Bochy, George Bodenheimer, Jim Bouton, Larry Bowa, Jim Bowden, Scott Braun, Jim Breuer, Lou Brock, Jackie Brown, Eric Byrnes, Dave Cameron, Marc Capalbo, Rod Carew, Sean Casey, Gerald Celente, Fran Charles, Albert Chen, Marc Ciafa, Nick Ciminello, Jane Forbes Clark, Joey Cora, Bob Costas, Keith Costas, John Daly, Ron Darling, Ryan Dempster, Mark DeRosa, Marc Desy, David Dinkins Jr., Greg Dowling, Jim Duquette, Gregg Easterbrook, Dennis Eckersley, John Entz, Michael Epstein, Lorraine Fisher, Carlton Fisk, Tim Flannery, Cliff Floyd, Bill Francis, Vince Gennaro, Bob Geren, Ken Gold, Goose Gossage, Jim Gray, Mitch Green, Butchie Guido, Tony Gwynn, Daryl Hamilton, Jay Harris, Thomas Hauser, Jon Heyman, Brad Horn, Jeff Idelson, Tom Ingram, Rich Isakow, Ben Jedlovec, Richard Justice, Jim Kaat, Elliot Kalb, Al Kaline, Micah Karg, Jeff Katz, Michael Keaton, Max Kellerman, Kostya Kennedy, Jonah Keri, Pastor Earl Kim, Jee Ha Kim, Tim Kirkjian, Ethan Kleinberg, Mike Konner, Tony Kornheiser, Mark Kriegel, Tony La Russa, Tom Lasorda, Al Leiter, Joe Lemire, Ben Lindbergh, Mike Lowell, Zach Lupica, Joe Magrane, Rob Manfred, Bruce Markusen, Chris Martens, Wayne Martin, Buck Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Voros McCracken, Rob McGlarry, Michael McKee, Bryan Meyers, Kevin Millar, Theresa Misasi, Bengie Molina, Paul Molitor, Scott Mondore, Marty Montalto, Joe Morgan, Craig Muder, Phil Mushnick, Eric Nehs, CJ Nitkowski, Jack Nugent, Dan Okrent, Keith Olbermann, Adam Ottavino, Dave Patterson, Carlos Pena, Tony Petitti, Dan Plesac, Joe Posnanski, Maury Povich, Jere Powers, Nate Purinton, Gus Ramsey, Ed Randall, Ben Reiter, Harold Reynolds, Rich Rinaldi, Bill Ripken, Cal Ripken Jr., Brooks Robinson, Chris Roenbeck, Ken Rosenthal, Christopher Mad Dog Russo, Joan Ryan, Barry Sacks, Matt Sandulli, Mike Santini, Rich Savino, Tom Scheiber, Mike Schmidt, Howie Schwab, Tom Seaver, Joe Sheehan, Joel Sherman, Buck Showalter, Bill Simmons, Ozzie Smith, John Smoltz, Jerry Springer, Sylvester Stallone, Jayson Stark, Erik Strohl, Rick Sutcliffe, Don Sutton, Frank Thomas, Barry Tompkins, Joe Torre, Bobby Valentine, Dave Valle, Matt Vasgergian, Tom Verducci, Suzyn Waldman, Marc Weiner, Justin White, Karen Whritner, Steve Wilkos, George Will, Mitch Williams, Norby Williamson, Juan Woodson, Robert Wuhl, Brian Yu, and Don Zimmer.

Baseball-Reference.com is one of the greatest innovations in baseball history. Without it, a project of this type is not possible. Thanks to Sean Forman and everyone who makes Baseball-Reference.com such a resource. My thanks as well to FanGraphs.com, and WhatIfSports.com.

A tip of the cap to the Cardinals fans at the Cooperstown Diner who gave this book its title.

Thank you to David Vigliano for your belief in the project and the subject matter. This wouldnt have happened without you.

And to Bob Bender, a true gentleman who edited this book with great care and expertise. I am also indebted to ace copy editor Fred Chase for his outstanding, meticulous work.

And a final thank-you to my true friend and agent Nick Khan, who is always in my corner.

I dont see as well as I used to. I should probably have glasses for distance. At Game 6 of the World Series in Cleveland, I squinted to make out who Joe Maddon had just put into the game. I didnt know the Cubs had another tall, skinny black left-hander in their bullpen besides, of course, Aroldis Chapman. Sitting in a sea of celebrity Cubs fans, I turned to the guy next to me and asked, Who is that? John Cusacka bit faster than Eddie Veddershot back, You mean Chapman?

My eyes had seen Chapman, but my brain could not process it. There was no way that could be Aroldis Chapman. The Cubs led Game 6 of the World Series 72 in the 7th. Chapman had been ridden hard two nights earlier in Game 5; 42 pitches over 2 inningsway beyond his normal workload. A five-run lead with 2 outs in the 7th meant Chicago had a win probability of 96 percent. If Im managing in this situation, I already have Chapman watching the game back at the team hotel in a robe and fuzzy slippers. It never entered my mind that Chapman would be in if the game wasnt close. Joe Maddon would later offer a compelling reason for bringing in his relief ace: Theres no Game Eight. He was correct on that. Im not saying he made a terrible choice. The Cubs were down three games to two, so even with a 72 lead, a loss ends your season. Even the remote chance of losing that lead cannot be risked.

The bill, however, came due the next night. After throwing 20 pitches in Game 6, his velocity was down more than two miles per hour, Chapman was not the same pitcher for Game 7. Maddon brought him in with 2 outs in the 8th with a two-run lead. Like a starter going over his fatigue point, he still may have looked like the man with the best fastball in the game, but the action on his pitches told a different story. Chapman immediately gave up a double and then the game-tying home run to Rajai Davis. It was one of the most stunning turnarounds in the history of the World Series. Maddon was right about having to win Game 6, but to win the World Series he needed to win two games, not one. Maddon would be heavily criticized, but then essentially forgiven when his team would go on to win in extra innings.

Buck Showalter got no such reprieve. Weeks earlier, in the American League Wild Card Game, the Orioles manager made an even more stunning decision. In a tie game going into the bottom of the 9th and facing the end of their season, the Orioles had the option of going with a pitcher who had just finished the year with the lowest single-season ERA in baseball history. We might not all be stat geeks, but most anyone who has ever seen a box score knows that Zach Brittons 0.54 ERA was an absurdly low number, signaling an all-time great season. Britton was sitting in the Orioles bullpen, about to get bypassed in favor of four teammates.

You could argue in favor of Showalters choice of hard-throwing Brad Brach to start the 9th. Brach had just finished the 8th, and was also coming off an excellent regular season (2.05 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 79 innings). You could also make an argument in favor of his next choice of Darren ODay, a righty killer with a lifetime 2.41 ERA.

What you cannot arguesuccessfullyis not using Britton to start the bottom of the 11th. Brian Duensing seems like a perfectly nice fellow, but he had thrown just 13 innings for the Os in 2016 and over the last six seasons owned an ERA of 4.66. That he struck out his one and only batter is just a fortunate result. But its one out, and the top of the Blue Jays order was coming up. Showalter wisely pulled Duensing.