Peter C. Oppenheimer - Analysing Cycles in Markets

1. Chapter 2
2. Chapter 3
3. Chapter 4
4. Chapter 5
5. Chapter 6
6. Chapter 7
7. Chapter 11

1. Chapter 2
2. Chapter 3
3. Chapter 4
4. Chapter 5
5. Chapter 6
6. Chapter 7
7. Chapter 9
8. Chapter 10
9. Chapter 11

Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave and misbehave should read this book now.

Stephen D. King, economist and author of Grave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History.

Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities.

Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair Chatham House

A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns.

Keith Skeoch, CEO Standard Life Aberdeen

This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be a basic reading for any student of finance.

Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics, London Business School

This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed.

Huw Pill, Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School

The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists.

Lord Brian Griffiths, Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford

Peter C. Oppenheimer

This edition first published 2020

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Oppenheimer, Peter C., author.

Title: The long good buy : analysing cycles in markets / Peter Oppenheimer.

Description: Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2020001577 (print) | LCCN 2020001578 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119688976 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119688983 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119689003 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: Business cycles. | Investments. | Finance.

Classification: LCC HB3720 .O67 2020 (print) | LCC HB3720 (ebook) | DDC 338.5/42dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020001577

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020001578

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: JDawnInk/DigitalVision Vectors/Getty Images

To Joanna, Jake and Mia

This book is about economic and financial market cycles and the factors that affect them.

It refers to, and reflects, much of the work that I have developed, together with my team, since the mid-1980s. I have been lucky enough to have worked with many incredible colleagues since then, and I have benefited from countless conversations with clients, all of which has helped develop my understanding of economies and markets and the factors that shape and drive them. Their influence has very much shaped the ideas and thoughts in this book.

I owe a huge debt of gratitude to all the people at Goldman Sachs who have worked closely with me in the Macro Research group. I would particularly like to thank Sharon Bell, my close colleague for 25 years; she has been instrumental to much of the work reflected in this book and it could not have been written without her. Christian Mueller-Glissmann also made a major contribution to many of the ideas and frameworks reflected in the book and in the analysis of Goldman Sachs Strategy Research over the past decade. Both have been a constant source of innovative ideas and personal support.

A number of other colleagues in my team at Goldman Sachs have worked on, and helped to develop, many of the ideas in the book. Anders Nielsen and Jessica Binder Graham coauthored our framework on Equity Risk Premia and the DDM model mentioned in the book and discussed in an article in the Journal of Portfolio Management. I would also like to thank current members of my team Lilia Peytavin, Guillaume Jaisson and Alessio Rizzi for their contributions to the book and for their ideas, constant dedication and hard work; I am also very grateful to Guillaume Jaisson for preparing and developing exhibits in the book.