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Stefan Jansen - Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Predictive models to extract signals from market and alternative data for systematic trading strategies with Python, 2nd Edition

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Stefan Jansen Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Predictive models to extract signals from market and alternative data for systematic trading strategies with Python, 2nd Edition
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Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Predictive models to extract signals from market and alternative data for systematic trading strategies with Python, 2nd Edition: summary, description and annotation

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Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Key Features Design, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategies Create a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisions Leverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative data Book Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learn Leverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image data Research and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP values Implement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problems Backtest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and Backtrader Optimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolio Create a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFs Train a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeeks high-quality trades and quotes data Who this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.

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Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading Second Edition Predictive models to - photo 1

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Second Edition

Predictive models to extract signals from market and alternative data for systematic trading strategies with Python

Stefan Jansen

BIRMINGHAM - MUMBAI Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading Second Edition - photo 2

BIRMINGHAM - MUMBAI

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Second Edition

Copyright 2020 Packt Publishing

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews.

Every effort has been made in the preparation of this book to ensure the accuracy of the information presented. However, the information contained in this book is sold without warranty, either express or implied. Neither the author, nor Packt Publishing or its dealers and distributors, will be held liable for any damages caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this book.

Packt Publishing has endeavored to provide trademark information about all of the companies and products mentioned in this book by the appropriate use of capitals. However, Packt Publishing cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information.

Producer: Tushar Gupta

Acquisition Editor Peer Reviews: Suresh Jain

Content Development Editor: Chris Nelson

Technical Editor: Aniket Shetty

Project Editor: Carol Lewis

Copy Editor: Safis Editing

Proofreader: Safis Editing

Indexer: Priyanka Dhadke

Presentation Designer: Pranit Padwal

First published: December 2018

Second edition: July 2020

Production reference: 1300720

Published by Packt Publishing Ltd.

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ISBN 978-1-83921-771-5

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Contributors
About the author

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and start-ups across industries on data and AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions for a broad range of business problems.

Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised central banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank.

He holds master's degrees in computer science from Georgia Tech and in economics from Harvard and Free University Berlin, and a CFA charter. He has worked in six languages across Europe, Asia, and the Americas and taught data science at DataCamp and General Assembly.

This thorough revision of the first edition was only possible with the collaboration and support of my family, friends, and colleagues. I want to thank the team at Packt for responding to reader feedback and taking the project from start to finish. Chris Nelson was a thorough editor and provided constructive advice. I want to thank my clients for the opportunity to do such exciting work that often offered valuable inspiration for this book.

Most important, however, has been the unrelenting patience and support of Mariana. To her and Bastian, who make it all worthwhile, I dedicate this book.

About the reviewers

Prem Jebaseelan has about 20 years of experience in handling different financial data and enjoys the challenge of organizing, storing, retrieving, and analyzing large volumes of data. Prem has designed and implemented several enterprise-level solutions for front office trading strategies, middle office, and back office applications for funds, and has good experience in applying machine learning and AI-based solutions. Prem has an engineering degree.

Prem is currently the co-founder and CEO of Zentropy Technologies, a fintech company that specializes in creating machine learning based solutions in the financial domain. Prior to this, Prem worked in one of the leading hedge funds as a technology solutions provider.

I would like to thank all my previous employers who have helped me in developing real-world solutions that bring technology and finance together. I would specifically like to thank Dr Yves Hilpisch for our work together in the application of machine learning to real-world trading strategies.

Ramanathan Ramakrishnamoorthy is one of the co founders and directors at Zentropy Technologies. Ramanathan started his professional career with a leading hedge fund and in his latest position, he worked as a project manager responsible for building tools and technologies required by the middle and back office. At Zentropy, Ramanathan is primarily responsible for better understanding project requirements and converting them to technical specs. alongside executing them. Having a keen eye for subtle data patterns, Ramanathan also has a good understanding of the machine learning and data science domain, particularly with expertise in the time series analysis domain. Ramanathan's experience has primarily been around building trading systems, quant warehouses, and backtesting engines for capital markets.

Ramanathan is also an active core group member in the Hyderabad Python group. He leads some of the most important activities of the community, like organizing conferences, monthly meetups, and conducting Python sessions at colleges.

Preface

If you are reading this, you are probably aware that machine learning (ML) has become a strategic capability in many industries, including the investment industry. The explosion of digital data closely related to the rise of ML is having a particularly powerful impact on investing, which already has a long history of using sophisticated models to process information. These trends are enabling novel approaches to quantitative investment and are boosting the demand for the application of data science to both discretionary and algorithmic trading strategies.

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