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Stefan Jansen - Hands-on machine learning for algorithmic trading

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Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading Design and implement - photo 1
Hands-On Machine Learning
for Algorithmic Trading
Design and implement investment strategies based on smart
algorithms that learn from data using Python
Stefan Jansen

BIRMINGHAM - MUMBAI Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading - photo 2

BIRMINGHAM - MUMBAI
Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Copyright 2018 Packt Publishing

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews.

Every effort has been made in the preparation of this book to ensure the accuracy of the information presented. However, the information contained in this book is sold without warranty, either express or implied. Neither the author, nor Packt Publishing or its dealers and distributors, will be held liable for any damages caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this book.

Packt Publishing has endeavored to provide trademark information about all of the companies and products mentioned in this book by the appropriate use of capitals. However, Packt Publishing cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information.

Commissioning Editor: Sunith Shetty
Acquisition Editor: Joshua Nadar
Content Development Editor: Snehal Kolte
Technical Editor: Sayli Nikalje
Copy Editor: Safis Editing
Project Coordinator: Manthan Patel
Proofreader: Safis Editing
Indexer: Rekha Nair
Graphics: Jisha Chirayil
Production Coordinator: Arvindkumar Gupta

First published: December 2018

Production reference: 1311218

Published by Packt Publishing Ltd.
Livery Place
35 Livery Street
Birmingham
B3 2PB, UK.

ISBN 978-1-78934-641-1

www.packtpub.com

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Contributors
About the author

Stefan Jansen, CFA is Founder and Lead Data Scientist at Applied AI where he advises Fortune 500 companies and startups across industries on translating business goals into a data and AI strategy, builds data science teams and develops ML solutions. Before his current venture, he was Managing Partner and Lead Data Scientist at an international investment firm where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice.

He was also an executive at a global fintech startup operating in 15 markets, worked for the World Bank, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and has worked in 6 languages on four continents. Stefan holds Master's from Harvard and Berlin University and teaches data science at General Assembly and Datacamp.

I thank Packt for this opportunity and the team who made the result possible, esp Snehal Kolte for facilitating the editing process. Many supporters deserve mention but Prof Zeckhauser at Harvard stands out for inspiring interest in the creative use of quantitative methods to solve problems. I am indebted to my parents for encouraging curiosity and supporting me throughout. Above all, however, I am grateful for Mariana who makes it all worthwhile.
About the reviewers

Doug Ortiz is an experienced enterprise cloud, big data, data analytics, and solutions architect who has architected, designed, developed, re-engineered, and integrated enterprise solutions. His other expertise includes Amazon Web Services, Azure, Google Cloud platform, business intelligence, Hadoop, Spark, NoSQL databases, and SharePoint.

He is the founder of Illustris.

Huge thanks to my wonderful wife, Milla, as well as Maria, Nikolay, and our children for all their support.

Sandipan Dey is a data scientist with a wide range of interests, including topics such as machine learning, deep learning, image processing, and computer vision. He has worked in numerous data science fields, including recommender systems, predictive models for the events industry, sensor localization models, sentiment analysis, and device prognostics. He earned his master's degree in computer science from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and has published in a few IEEE data mining conferences and journals.

He has earned certifications from 100+ MOOCs on data science, machine learning, deep learning, image processing, and related courses/specializations. He is a regular blogger on his blog (sandipanweb) and is a machine learning education enthusiast.

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Preface

The availability of diverse data has increased the demand for expertise in algorithmic trading strategies. With this book, you will select and apply machine learning (ML) to a broad range of data sources and create powerful algorithmic strategies.

This book will start by introducing you to essential elements, such as evaluating datasets, accessing data APIs using Python, using Quandl to access financial data, and managing prediction errors. We then cover various machine learning techniques and algorithms that can be used to build and train algorithmic models using pandas, Seaborn, StatsModels, and sklearn. We will then build, estimate, and interpret AR(p), MA(q), and ARIMA (p, d, q) models using StatsModels. You will apply Bayesian concepts of prior, evidence, and posterior, in order to distinguish the concept of uncertainty using PyMC3. We will then utilize NLTK, sklearn, and spaCy to assign sentiment scores to financial news and classify documents to extract trading signals. We will learn to design, build, tune, and evaluate feed forward neural networks,

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