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Jason Schenker - The Robot and Automation Almanac - 2022: The Futurist Institute

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Jason Schenker The Robot and Automation Almanac - 2022: The Futurist Institute
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What will 2022 hold for automation, robots, and artificial intelligence? The Robot and Automation Almanac is a collection of essays from leading robot and automation experts, executives, and investors. Each of the essays focuses on the one big thing that each author sees in the year ahead: an opportunity, a risk, a challenge, investment themes, an overlooked trend, a perception shift, a step change, or a trend change.
Aside from Jason Schenker, contributors to the 2021 almanac include Michael Walton, Bruce Welty, Shannon McGurk, Djamila Amimer, Jason Gouw, Bruce Bleikamp, Steven LaFevers, Louie Kangeter, Anton Larsson, Thomas Evans, Kaleb Steinhauer, Nawfal Patel, Shane Istre, Robert Handfield, Kevin Paramore, Martin Buehler, Lorenzo Carver, Jim Rice, Daniel Stanton, Patrick Davison, Crystal Parrott, and Mark Manning.
The Robot and Automation Almanac is produced by The Futurist Institute - www.FuturistInstitute.org

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THE ROBOT AND AUTOMATION ALMANAC
2022

Edited by Jason Schenker Chairman of The Futurist Institute Copyright 2021 - photo 1

Edited by Jason Schenker
Chairman of The Futurist Institute

Copyright 2021 Prestige Professional Publishing, LLC

All rights reserved.

THE ROBOT AND AUTOMATION ALMANAC - 2022

THE FUTURIST INSTITUTE

EDITED BY JASON SCHENKER

No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, stored in or transmitted into a data retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or any other method) without written permission of the publisher, Prestige Professional Publishing LLC.

ISBN: 978-1-946197-76-4 Paperback

978-1-946197-77-1 Ebook

For futurists everywhere Contents PREFACE FROM THE FUTURIST INSTITUTE - photo 2

For futurists everywhere.

Contents PREFACE FROM THE FUTURIST INSTITUTE This is the fifth edition of - photo 3

Contents
PREFACE

FROM THE FUTURIST INSTITUTE

This is the fifth edition of The Robot and Automation Almanac . What began as a project of future history has become an important guide and touchstone of futurist thought to help shape and frame the expectations, opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by emerging automation technologies in the year ahead and beyond.

Technology has become more important than ever in the wake of the COVID pandemic. With supply chain and labor market challenges abounding, automation, robotics, and AI present tremendous opportunities. It also means that there is a greater need than ever before to think strategically about the future of these technologies. It is my hope that The Robot and Automation Almanac - 2022 helps you consider the future of automation, robots, robotics, AI, and other related technologies.

On behalf of The Futurist Institute, I want to acknowledge and thank all of the contributors to The Robot and Automation Almanac - 2022 .

As in the past four years, we have an amazing cohort of contributors in the fields of robots, automation, and AI this year. Thank you to Michael Walton, Bruce Welty, Shannon McGurk, Djamila Amimer, Jason Gouw, Bruce Bleikamp, Steven LaFevers, Louie Kangeter, Anton Larsson, Thomas Evans, Kaleb Steinhauer, Nawfal Patel, Shane Istre, Robert Handfield, Kevin Paramore, Martin Buehler, Lorenzo Carver, Jim Rice, Daniel Stanton, Patrick Davison, Crystal Parrott, and Mark Manning.

I am humbled by this list of amazing authors! Without them, this book would never have happened. Their visions of the future are both exciting and valuable. Their expectations for the big thing in the year ahead and beyond are important for understanding a wide range of technological developments, initiatives, opportunities, and challenges in the year ahead.

It is my personal pleasure to have been involved in this undertaking. The robotics, automation, and AI industries are still very new, but they are becoming more important. And it is with great pleasure that The Futurist Institute is able to support the companies in these industries with this almanac. I founded The Futurist Institute to help strategists, analysts, and executives become futurists in October 2016; we recently began our sixth year of operations.

I also want to thank The Futurist Institute team for providing support and feedback about this project. And I wish to thank Kerry Ellis, who designed a wonderful cover for the almanac.

With the inaugural edition of The Robot and Automation Almanac for 2018, The Futurist Institute created an invaluable tool for professionals, individuals, and investors seeking to understand the implications of robots and automation for their personal, professional, and investing lives. Multiple past editions provided unique insights and have become bestsellers.

We have similarly high expectations for how The Robot and Automation Almanac - 2022 will presage changes in the year ahead, and that it will also help professionals think strategically about a variety of potential changes in the wake of the COVID-19 disruption that have loomed large over the economy, the supply chain, and the labor market.

The transition from the information age into the automation age is underway. Thank you for being a part of this dynamic shift.

The history of robots and automation is being written now in this book. When people look back a decade from now, they will want to know how robots and automation evolved. They will want to understand how robots and AI became more integrated. They will wish they read The Robot and Automation Almanac .

Welcome to the future! ~

Jason Schenker

Chairman of The Futurist Institute

Editor of The Robot and Automation Almanac

THE SCAVENGER HUNT ECONOMY AND THE CASE FOR AUTOMATION
Jason Schenker

- Chairman of The Futurist Institute

Scavenger Hunt Economics

Business leaders, policymakers, and financial analysts always say that they want to see the economy operating on all cylinders. Indeed, it surely has been during 2021. The problem is that the economy has been running on eight cylinders but its only a six-cylinder economy.

Companies operating in the physical world have been subjected to what I call scavenger hunt economics over the past year and they could remain under stress to find the raw materials, goods, people, and means of transport necessary to operate successfully. Four fundamental factors have engendered these operational challenges that threaten to hinder profitability, despite a strong economy and high orders. These four factors include record high e-commerce demand, record high levels of goods demand, a tight labor market, and tight water-born and on-road freight markets. These factors have engendered supply chain challenges and high inflation.

E-Commerce Demand

For decades, e-commerce has been rising steadily. But during the COVID pandemic it soared in dollar terms and as a percent of retail sales. Now, as vaccine distribution has reached scale in the United States, brick and mortar retail sales have increased to take back market share. But the absolute dollar level of e-commerce retail has continued to rise, and was at a new all-time high in Q2 2021 at around $222 billion, and fell rather modestly in Q3 2021 to almost $215 billion. In other words, e-commerce isnt going away. This is why any discussion of automation has to involve a discussion of the supply chain. Yes, there is a lot of excitement about the myriad activities robots are being developed to do. But the automation and robotics demands of the marketplace right now are unquestioningly urgent in the supply chain. Moreover, robots do not take breaks, they do not go on vacation, and they do not get COVID. In order to continue to meet the demands of a supply chain never designed for single-piece batching, automation and robotics in warehouses, distribution centers, and across the supply chain are no longer optional. They are essential.

Labor Market The COVID recession was catastrophic for the US and global - photo 4

Labor Market

The COVID recession was catastrophic for the U.S. and global labor force. But the response of both massive fiscal policy stimulus as well as monetary policy stimulus caused the sharpest bounce back in the U.S. labor force in history. The unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.8% in April 2020, but fell back down to only 4.2% as of November 2021. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims a measure reflecting the number of new people who lose their jobs in any given week fell to a 52-year low in mid-November.

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