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Jianjun Miao - Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time (The MIT Press)

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A unified and comprehensive introduction to the analytical and numerical tools for solving dynamic economic problems; substantially revised for the second edition.This book offers a unified, comprehensive, and up-to-date treatment of analytical and numerical tools for solving dynamic economic problems. The focus is on introducing recursive methodsan important part of every economists set of toolsand readers will learn to apply recursive methods to a variety of dynamic economic problems. The book is notable for its combination of theoretical foundations and numerical methods. Each topic is first described in theoretical terms, with explicit definitions and rigorous proofs; numerical methods and computer codes to implement these methods follow. Drawing on the latest research, the book covers such cutting-edge topics as asset price bubbles, recursive utility, robust control, policy analysis in dynamic New Keynesian models with the zero lower bound on interest rates, and Bayesian estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. This second edition has been substantially updated. Responding to renewed interest in modeling with multiple equilibria, it incorporates new material on this topic throughout. It offers an entirely new chapter on deterministic nonlinear systems, and provides new material on such topics as linear planar systems, chaos, bifurcations, indeterminacy and sunspot solutions, pruning nonlinear solutions, the bandit problem, rational inattention models, bequests, self-fulfilling prophecies, the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies, and the long-run risk model. The exposition of each chapter has been revised and improved, and many new figures, Matlab codes, and exercises have been added. A student solutions manual can be purchased separately.

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Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time Jianjun Miao The MIT Press Cambridge - photo 1

Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time

Jianjun Miao

The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England

2020 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Miao, Jianjun, 1969- author.

Title: Economic dynamics in discrete time / Jianjun Miao.

Description: Second Edition. | Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, [2019] | Revised edition of the authors Economic dynamics in discrete time, [2014] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2019020120 | ISBN 9780262043625 (hardcover: alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Econometric models. | Economics--Mathematical models. | Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) | Discrete-time systems.

Classification: LCC HB141.M53 2019 | DDC 330.01/5195--dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019020120

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to Angela, Michael, and Qian

Contents
List of Figures


Cobweb diagram for the system xt+1 = 2xt(1 xt)


Impact of dividend taxes on the stock price


Nullclines: The left and right panels plot the isoclines xt = 0 and yt = 0, respectively


Phase diagram


Phase diagram for example 1.5.1


Cobweb diagrams for the three dynamical systems f(x) = x + x3, g(x) = xx3, and h(x) = x + x2


Saddle-node bifurcation for the map f(x; a) = x2 + a


Transcritical bifurcation for the map f(x; a) = ax(1 x)


Pitchfork bifurcation for the map f(x; a) = axx3


Period-doubling bifurcation for the map f(x; a) = x2 + a


Bifurcation diagram for the logistic system f(x) = ax(1 x)


Cobweb diagram and the orbit starting at x0 = 0.3 for the logistic system f(x) = 4x(1 x)


The tent map f(x) and its iterates f2(x) and f3(x) on [0, 1]


Logistic function f(x) = 4x(1 x) and its third iterate f3(x)


Transitional dynamics in response to a temporary technology shock


Graphic representation of a Markov chain


Graphic representation of the birthdeath Markov chain


Graphic representation of the unrestricted one-dimensional random walk


Option value. Plotted is the value function V(z) for the irreversible project investment problem.


Value function. Plotted is the value function V(s) for the discrete choice problem.


The determination of the saving function and its properties


Policy functions. Plotted are consumption and assets as functions of cash on hand.


Evolution of cash on hand. Plotted is xt+1 as a function of xt for the largest and the lowest income levels.


Optimality of the (s, S) policy. Illustrated is the solution for the one-period problem.


Minimization of Gn(x)


Reward to investing. Plotted is the function (Q, K) for a fixed value of K in the case without fixed costs.


Three regions of states for (K, z). Plotted are the two boundaries that partition the state space into the buy region, sell region, and inaction region in the case without fixed costs.


Reward to investing. Plotted is the function (Q, K) for a fixed value of K in the presence of fixed costs.


Chebychev polynomial basis functions up to nine degrees on the unit interval


Linear B-splines with nine equally spaced breakpoints {0, 1/8, 1/4, 3/8, 1/2, 5/8, 3/4, 7/8, 1}


Cubic B-splines with seven equally spaced breakpoints {0, 1/6, 1/3, 1/2, 2/3, 5/6, 1}


Phase diagram for the log-linearized basic RBC model


Labor market equilibrium for the log-linearized basic RBC model


Phase diagram after a permanent TFP shock for the log-linearized basic RBC model


Labor market responses following a permanent TFP shock for the log-linearized basic RBC model


Comparison of impulse responses to a TFP shock with different levels of persistence


Comparison of impulse responses to a TFP shock with different levels of persistence


Comparison of impulse responses to a TFP shock for different values of the risk aversion parameter


Comparison of impulse responses to a TFP shock for different values of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply


Comparison of impulse responses to a TFP shock for different values of the habit formation parameter


Impulse responses to a permanent TFP shock


Impulse responses to a TFP shock and an investment-specific technology (IST) shock


Impulse responses to a government-spending shock at different levels of persistence


Impulse responses to a preference shock at different levels of persistence


Priors and posteriors


Offer curve


One stable nonmonetary steady state and one unstable monetary steady state


Locally stable monetary steady state


Two-period cycle equilibrium


Feasibility and budget lines


Three positive steady states and G(0) > 1


Two positive steady states and G(0) < 1


Zero positive steady state and G(0) < 1


Indeterminancy


Unique positive and stable steady state


Locus kt = kt+1kt = 0 and vector fields


Locus bt = bt+1bt = 0 and vector fields


Phase diagram. The bubbly steady state is (kg, b*). It is a saddle point. The Diamond bubbleless steady state is (kD, 0). There are infinitely many equilibria converging to the Diamond steady state.


Determination of equilibrium in Aiyagaris (1994) model. The intersection of the Ea(r) curve and the FK curve gives the equilibrium interest rate and the capital stock.


Determination of equilibrium in Aiyagaris model in example 18.1.1


Determination of equilibrium in Huggetts (1993) model


Two stationary equilibrium rates of return on currency that finance the constant government deficit G


Steady-state equilibrium market tightness and wage


Steady-state equilibrium vacancies and unemployment


Phase diagram


Adjustments of vacancies and unemployment


Equilibrium reservation productivity and market tightness


Effect of higher productivity on equilibrium vacancies and unemployment


Impulse responses to a positive 1 percent shock to monetary policy


Impulse responses to a positive 1 percent shock to the natural rate


Impulse responses under optimal commitment and discretionary policies


L as a function of L


Derivatives of YL with respect to the values of rL and GL, for alternate degrees of persistence of the financial disturbance


Fiscal multiplier as a function of

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