Alan S. Blinder - After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead
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One of our wisest and most clear-eyed economic thinkers offers a masterful narrative of the crisis and its lessons
Many fine books on the financial crisis were first drafts of historybooks written to fill the need for immediate understanding. Alan S. Blinder, esteemed Princeton professor, Wall Street Journal columnist, and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, held off, taking the time to understand the crisis and to think his way through to a truly comprehensive and coherent narrative of how the worst economic crisis in postwar American history happened, what the government did to fight it, and what we can do from heremired as we still are in its wreckage.
With bracing clarity, Blinder shows us how the U.S. financial system, which had grown far too complex for its own goodand too unregulated for the public goodexperienced a perfect storm beginning in 2007. Things started unraveling when the much-chronicled housing bubble burst, but the ensuing implosion of what Blinder calls the bond bubble was larger and more devastating. Some people think of the financial industry as a sideshow with little relevance to the real economywhere the jobs, factories, and shops are. But finance is more like the circulatory system of the economic body: if the blood stops flowing, the body goes into cardiac arrest. When Americas financial structure crumbled, the damage proved to be not only deep, but wide. It took the crisis for the world to discover, to its horror, just how truly interconnectedand fragilethe global financial system is. Some observers argue that large global forces were the major culprits of the crisis. Blinder disagrees, arguing that the problem started in the U.S. and was pushed abroad, as complex, opaque, and overrated investment products were exported to a hungry world, which was nearly poisoned by them.
The second part of the story explains how American and international government intervention kept us from a total meltdown. Many of the U.S. governments actions, particularly the Feds, were previously unimaginable. And to an amazingand certainly misunderstoodextent, they worked. The worst did not happen. Blinder offers clear-eyed answers to the questions still before us, even if some of the choices ahead are as divisive as they are unavoidable. After the Music Stopped is an essential history that we cannot afford to forget, because one thing history teaches is that it will happen again.
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ALSO BY ALAN S. BLINDER
Hard Heads, Soft Hearts
Offshoring of American Jobs
The Quiet Revolution
Downsizing in America
Asking About Prices
Central Banking in Theory and Practice
Economics: Principles and Policy
AFTER THE MUSIC STOPPED
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, THE RESPONSE, AND THE WORK AHEAD
ALAN S. BLINDER
THE PENGUIN PRESS
New York
2013
THE PENGUIN PRESS
Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, U.S.A. Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 2Y3 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St. Stephens Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 707 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3008, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, Auckland 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa), Rosebank Office Park, 181 Jan Smuts Avenue, Parktown North 2193, South Africa Penguin China, B7 Jiaming Center, 27 East Third Ring Road North, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100020, China Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices:
First published in 2013 by The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
Copyright Alan S. Blinder, 2013
All rights reserved
Diagram on page 77 from The Deal, issue of October 6, 2008. By permission of The Deal LLC.
Quote from Hey Jude by John Lennon and Paul McCartney, published by Sony/ATV Music Publishing. All rights reserved.
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Blinder, Alan S.
After the music stopped : the financial crisis, the response, and the work ahead / Alan S. Blinder.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-10160587-5
1. Global Financial Crisis, 20082009. 2. Financial crisesUnited States. 3. FinanceUnited States. 4. United StatesEconomic conditions2009 5. United StatesEconomic policy2009 I. Title.
HB37172008 .B55 2013
330.973dc23 2012031025
While the author has made every effort to provide accurate telephone numbers, Internet addresses, and other contact information at the time of publication, neither the publisher nor the author assumes any responsibility for errors, or for changes that occur after publication. Further, publisher does not have any control over and does not assume any responsibility for author or third-party Web sites or their content.
No part of this book may be reproduced, scanned, or distributed in any printed or electronic form without permission. Please do not participate in or encourage piracy of copyrighted materials in violation of the authors rights. Purchase only authorized editions.
To Madeline
ABCP: asset-backed commercial paper ABS: asset-backed securities
AIG: American International Group AIG FP: AIG Financial Products
AMLF: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility ANPR: Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking ARM: adjustable-rate mortgage
ARRA: American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (2009) BofA: Bank of America
CBO: Congressional Budget Office CDO: collateralized debt obligation CDS: credit default swaps
CEA: Council of Economic Advisers CEO: Chief Executive Officer
CFMA: Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000) CFPA: Consumer Financial Protection Agency CFPB: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission CME: Chicago Mercantile Exchange CP: commercial paper
CPFF: Commercial Paper Funding Facility CPI: Consumer Price Index
CPP: Capital Purchase Program
DTI: debt (service)-to-income ratio ECB: European Central Bank
EMH: efficient markets hypothesis ESF: Exchange Stabilization Fund FCIC: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FHA: Federal Housing Administration FHFA: Federal Housing Finance Agency FICO: Fair Isaac Company
FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee FSA: Financial Services Authority (UK) FSLIC: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation FSOC: Financial Stability Oversight Council G7: Group of Seven (nations)
GAAP: generally accepted accounting principles GAO: Government Accountability Office GDP: gross domestic product
GLB: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) GSE: government-sponsored enterprise H4H: Hope for Homeowners
HAFA: Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program HAMP: Home Affordable Modification Program HARP: Home Affordable Refinancing Program HAUP: Home Affordable Unemployment Program HHF: Hardest Hit Fund
HOLC: Home Owners Loan Corporation HUD: Department of Housing and Urban Development IMF: International Monetary Fund ISDA: International Swaps and Derivatives Association LIBOR: London Interbank Offer Rate LTCM: Long-Term Capital Management LTRO: Longer-Term Refinancing Operations LTV: loan-to-value (ratio)
MBS: mortgage-backed securities MOM: my own money
NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research NEC: National Economic Council
NINJA (loans): no income, no jobs, and no assets NJTC: new jobs tax credit
OCC: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency OFHEO: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight OMB: Office of Management and Budget OMT: Outright Monetary Transactions OPM: other peoples money
OTC: over the counter
OTS: Office of Thrift Supervision PDCF: Primary Dealer Credit Facility PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain QE: quantitative easing
Repo: repurchase agreement
S&L: savings and loan association S&P: Standard and Poors
SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission Section 13(3): of Federal Reserve Act SIFI: systemically important financial institution SIV: structured investment vehicle SPV: special purpose vehicle
TAF: Term Auction Facility
TALF: Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility TARP: Troubled Assets Relief Program TBTF: too big to fail
TED (spread): spread between LIBOR and Treasuries TIPS: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities TLGP: Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program TSLF: Term Securities Lending Facility UMP: unconventional monetary policy WaMu: Washington Mutual
When the music stops... things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing.
T hose were the immortal words on July 8, 2007, of Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citigroup. It may be the most famous, or infamous, quotation of the entire financial crisis. Almost exactly a month later, the music stopped abruptlyand so did the dancing.
True to Princes prophecy, things got quite complicated and very uglynot only for Citigroup but for the entire world. The high-stakes game of musical chairs turned out to be remarkably short on seats, and large swaths of the financial industry fell rudely to the floor. The U.S. economy subsequently sank into its worst recession since the 1930s. The U.S. government, which was led at the time by a bunch of alleged free-marketeers, was called upon to ride to the rescue multiple timesnot because the financial firms deserved it, but because the chaos threatened to pull all of us down into the abyss with them. They were incredible events.
A NOTHER B OOK ON THE C RISIS ?
But the story of the financial crisis of 20072009, or at least parts of it, has been told many times, in many different ways, in a wide variety of books and articles. So why yet another work about the crisis and its aftermath?
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