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THE IMPACT OF TARIFF CHANGES ON ARMENIAS FOREIGN TRADE

JULY 2021

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

2021 Asian Development Bank

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines

Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444

www.adb.org

Some rights reserved. Published in 2021.

ISBN 978-92-9262-146-9 (print); 978-92-9262-147-6 (electronic); 978-92-9262-148-3 (ebook)

Publication Stock No. TCS210254

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS210254

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.

ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term country in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.

This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.

Please contact if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo.

Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.

Notes:

In this publication, $ refers to United States dollars.

On the cover: Recent changes and updates on foreign trade policies have impacts on Armenias economy, particularly on exporting and importing products (photos by ADB).

Cover design by Editha Creus.

Contents

Tables and Figures
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
I.	Introduction
II.	Background
Eurasian Economic Union
Common External Tariff
Other Trade Policy Tools
Armenias Other Trade Agreements
Trade Agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and Third Countries
III.	Armenias New Trade Regime
Armenias Exceptions from the Eurasian Economic Union Common External Tariff During the Transition
Countries and Sectors Likely to be Affected by the New Tariffs
Tariff Revenue Distribution in the Eurasian Economic Union
IV.	Methodology
The Gravity Model
Estimation of Tariff Elasticities
Partial and General Equilibrium Estimations
Data
V.	Results
Impact of Eurasian Economic Union Membership
Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement with India
Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement with Iran
Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement with the Peoples Republic of China
Impact of the Free Trade Agreement with Serbia
Impact of the Loss of European Union Generalised Scheme of Preferences Eligibility
VI.	Conclusions
Appendix: Descriptive Statistics
References

Tables and Figures

Tables
	General Equilibrium Impact of Recent and Potential Free Trade Agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and Third Countries
	General Equilibrium Impact of the Convergence of Armenias Tariffs to the Eurasian Economic Union Common External Tariff
	General Equilibrium Impact of the Loss of the European Union Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus Eligibility
	Armenias Bilateral Free Trade Agreements
	Number of HS 10-Digit Products with Tariff Change, by Group of Change
	Tariff Revenue under Current and Counterfactual Allocation, 2017
A1	Main Products Exported by Armenia to Top Destinations, 2018
A2	Main Destinations for Armenias Top Export Products, 2018
A3	Tariffs on Armenias Exports of Top HS 6-Digit Products, as per Eurasian Economic Union Bilateral Trade Agreements
A4	List of 100 Economies with Comprehensive Bilateral Trade Coverage
Figures
	Stages of Economic Integration
	Eurasian Economic Unions Bilateral Trade across Partners, 2014 and 2018
	Armenias Average Tariff and Share of Duty-Free Tariff Lines, 20082018
	Trade-Weighted Average Tariffs by Product Category, 2014, 2015, 2022
	Number of Tariff Changes per Sector in 2021, by Tariff Change Group
	Number of Tariff Changes per Sector in 2022, by Tariff Change Group
	Origins of Armenias Imports, 2014 and 2018
	Share of Armenias Imports Facing Tariff Increases across Partners, 20152022
	Armenias Imports and Average Tariff Change over 20142022, by Sector
	Changes in Armenias Welfare, 20142022

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