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Ruey S. Tsay - Analysis of Financial Time Series (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)2nd edition

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Provides statistical tools and techniques needed to understand todays financial markets The Second Edition of this critically acclaimed text provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to financial econometric models and their applications in modeling and predicting financial time series data. This latest edition continues to emphasize empirical financial data and focuses on real-world examples. Following this approach, readers will master key aspects of financial time series, including volatility modeling, neural network applications, market microstructure and high-frequency financial data, continuous-time models and Itos Lemma, Value at Risk, multiple returns analysis, financial factor models, and econometric modeling via computation-intensive methods. The author begins with the basic characteristics of financial time series data, setting the foundation for the three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series Return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods This new edition is a thoroughly revised and updated text, including the addition of S-Plus commands and illustrations. Exercises have been thoroughly updated and expanded and include the most current data, providing readers with more opportunities to put the models and methods into practice. Among the new material added to the text, readers will find: Consistent covariance estimation under heteroscedasticity and serial correlation Alternative approaches to volatility modeling Financial factor models State-space models Kalman filtering Estimation of stochastic diffusion models The tools provided in this text aid readers in developing a deeper understanding of financial markets through firsthand experience in working with financial data. This is an ideal textbook for MBA students as well as a reference for researchers and professionals in business and finance.

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title Analysis of Financial Time Series 2Nd Ed author Tsay Ruey - photo 1


title:Analysis of Financial Time Series 2Nd Ed.
author:Tsay, Ruey S.
publisher:John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (US)
isbn10 | asin:0471690740
print isbn13:9780471690740
ebook isbn13:9780471746188
language:English
subjectTime-series analysis, Econometrics, Risk management.
publication date:2005
lcc:HA30.3T76 2005eb
ddc:332/.01/51955
subject:Time-series analysis, Econometrics, Risk management.

Page i

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Page ii

WILEY SERIES IN PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Established by WALTER A. SHEWHART and SAMUEL S. WILKS

Editors: David J. Balding, Noel A. C. Cressie, Nicholas I. Fisher,
Iain M. Johnstone, J. B. Kadane, Geert Molenberghs, Louise M. Ryan,
David W. Scott, Adrian F. M. Smith, Jozef L. Teugels

Editors Emeriti: Vic Barnett, J. Stuart Hunter, David G. Kendall

A complete list of the titles in this series appears at the end of this volume.

Page iii

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Second Edition

RUEY S. TSAY

University of Chicago
Graduate School of Business

Page iv Copyright 2005 by John Wiley Sons Inc All rights reserved Published - photo 2

Page iv

Copyright 2005 by John Wiley Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com . Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission .

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com .

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Tsay, Ruey S., 1951
Analysis of financial time series/Ruey S. Tsay.2nd ed.
p. cm.
"Wiley-Interscience."
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13 978-0-471-69074-0
ISBN-10 0-471-69074-0 (cloth)
1. Time-series analysis. 2. Econometrics. 3. Risk management. I. Title.
HA30.3T76 2005
332.0151955dc22
2005047030

Printed in the United States of America.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Page v

To my parents and Teresa

Page vi

This page intentionally left blank

Page vii

Contents

Preface

xvii

Preface to First Edition

xix

1. Financial Time Series and Their Characteristics

1.1 Asset Returns,

1.2 Distributional Properties of Returns,

1.2.1 Review of Statistical Distributions and Their Moments,

1.2.2 Distributions of Returns,

1.2.3 Multivariate Returns,

1.2.4 Likelihood Function of Returns,

1.2.5 Empirical Properties of Returns,

1.3 Processes Considered,

Exercises,

References,

2. Linear Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

2.1 Stationarity,

2.2 Correlation and Autocorrelation Function,

2.3 White Noise and Linear Time Series,

2.4 Simple Autoregressive Models,

2.4.1 Properties of AR Models,

2.4.2 Identifying AR Models in Practice,

2.4.3 Goodness of Fit,

2.4.4 Forecasting,

Page viii

2.5 Simple Moving-Average Models,

2.5.1 Properties of MA Models,

2.5.2 Identifying MA Order,

2.5.3 Estimation,

2.5.4 Forecasting Using MA Models,

2.6 Simple ARMA Models,

2.6.1 Properties of ARMA(1,1) Models,

2.6.2 General ARMA Models,

2.6.3 Identifying ARMA Models,

2.6.4 Forecasting Using an ARMA Model,

2.6.5 Three Model Representations for an ARMA Model,

2.7 Unit-Root Nonstationarity,

2.7.1 Random Walk,

2.7.2 Random Walk with Drift,

2.7.3 Trend-Stationary Time Series,

2.7.4 General Unit-Root Nonstationary Models,

2.7.5 Unit-Root Test,

2.8 Seasonal Models,

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