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Tom Miller - China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road

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Tom Miller China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road
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China, Napoleon once remarked, is a sleeping lion. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world. In 2014, President Xi Jinping triumphantly declared that the lion had awoken. Under Xi, China is pursuing an increasingly ambitious foreign policy with the aim of restoring its historical status as the dominant power in Asia. From the Mekong Basin to the Central Asian steppe, the country is wooing its neighbors with promises of new roads, railways, dams, and power grids. Chinese trade and investment presents huge opportunities for Chinas neighbors, and its ability to build much-needed infrastructure could assist in the development of some of the worlds poorest countries. Yet Chinas rise also threatens to reduce its neighbours to the status of exploited vassals. In Vietnam and Myanmar, resentment of Chinese encroachment has already incited anti-Chinese protests, and many countries in the region are seeking to counterbalance its influence by turning to the US and Japan. Combining a concise overview of the situation with on-the-ground reportage from over seven countries, Chinas Asian Dream offers a fresh perspective on one of the most important questions of our time: what does Chinas rise mean for the future of Asia and of the world?

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tom Miller is a senior analyst at Gavekal Research a global - photo 1

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Miller is a senior analyst at Gavekal Research, a global economic research service, and managing editor of China Economic Quarterly , published by its sister service Gavekal Dragonomics. Tom was educated at the University of Oxford and the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, and spent two years studying Mandarin in Beijing. A former journalist, he has reported from a dozen countries in Asia. His first book, Chinas Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History (Zed, 2012), was translated into Chinese. After fourteen years living in China, Tom now divides his time between England and Asia.

CHINAS
ASIAN
DREAM

EMPIRE BUILDING
ALONG THE NEW SILK ROAD
TOM MILLER

TOM MILLER

Chinas Asian Dream Empire Building along the New Silk Road - image 2

Chinas Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road was first published in 2017 by Zed Books Ltd, The Foundry, 17 Oval Way, London SE11 5RR, UK

www.zedbooks.net

Copyright Tom Miller 2017

The right of Tom Miller to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988

Typeset in Haarlemmer by seagulls.net
Index: John Barker
Cover design: Clare Turner
Cover photo Martin Roemers/Panos Pictures

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of Zed Books Ltd.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-1-78360-924-6 hb

ISBN 978-1-78360-923-9 pb

ISBN 978-1-78360-925-3 pdf

ISBN 978-1-78360-926-0 epub

ISBN 978-1-78360-927-7 mobi

For Flora, Harry and Penny

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This book is the fruit of two years spent wandering around Chinas border regions and often far-flung parts of Asia. It could not have been written without the support of my colleagues at Gavekal Research in Hong Kong and Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. Special thanks go to Arthur Kroeber, who encouraged me to disappear from the office, and to Louis Gave, for not minding. Many thanks as well to Simon Pritchard, Tom Holland, Udith Sikand, Chris Rickleton, David Eimer, Paul Mooney and David Brown, who read through earlier articles and draft chapters of the book, pointing out errors and making helpful suggestions.

I was helped in my research and on my travels by numerous people. In Beijing: Ignacio Asenjo, Andrew Batson, Chen Long, Ernan Cui, Simon Denyer, Matt Ferchen, Thomas Gatley, Philippa Jones, David Kelly, Calum MacLeod, Pratik Mathur, Alanis Qin, Felix Roberts, David Sedney, Ruslan Suleimenov, Dina Turarova, Rosealea Yao, Wang Jisi, Joerg Wuttke and Zha Daojiong. In Hong Kong: Gavin Bowring. In Kunming: Lu Guangsheng. In Astana and Almaty: Nurbala Amiebayera, Aidar Azerbayev, Amer Durrani, Steven Freeman, John Gray, Janet Heckman, Ann Herrigan, Nargis Kassenova, Joanna Lillis, Yelena Sadovskaya, Leilya Shamell, Brian Shelbourne and Dena Sholk. In Bishkek and Osh: Bakyt Duashov, Sultan Khalilov, Uluk Kydyrbaev, Roman Mogilevskii, Nazira Raymond, Talant Sultanov and Deirdre Tynan. In Yangon and Mandalay: Jan Ano, Roman Caillaud, Nickey Diamond, Stuart Deed, Josh Gordon, Judy Ko, Thura Ko, Aung Naing Oo, Tao Ye, Khin Tun and Wong Yit Fan. In Phnom Penh: Daniel de Carteret, Julian Rake, Sok Siphana and David Van Vichet. In Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi: Mike Ives, Nguyen Thanh Tuan, Nguyen The Phuong, Nguyen Trung Truc, Tuong Lai and Truong-Minh Vu. In Singapore: Kanti Bajpai, Selina Ho, Huang Jing, Tomoo Kikuchi, C Raja Mohan, Alex Neill and Ian Storey. In Colombo: Krishantha Coorey, Karu Jayasuriya, Ravi Karunanayake, Vidya Nathaniel, Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu and Eran Wickramaratne. In Delhi: Rahul Bedi, Brahma Chellaney, Gurcharan Das and Rahul Jacob. In Washington DC: Michael Austin, Peter Foster, Bonnie Glaser, Michael Green, Murray Hiebert, Yukon Huang, Christopher Johnson, Scott Kennedy, Ashkok Mirpuri, Vikram Nehru, Douglas Paal and Sun Yun. In London: Agatha Kratz, Sam Leith and Rafaello Pantucci. And in Oxford: Rosemary Foot, Ewan Smith and Jonathan Ward. My apologies to anyone I have forgotten.

Finally, my love and thanks go to my familyFlora, Harry and Pennyfor being there when I come home. This book is dedicated to them.

Oxford, July 2016

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB

Asian Development Bank

ADIZ

Air Defence Identification Zone

AIIB

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

APEC

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ASEAN

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

ASEAN Plus One

Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China

BCIM

Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor

Belt

Silk Road Economic Belt

BRICS

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa

CAREC

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

CCP

Chinese Communist Party

CDB

China Development Bank

CNOOC

China National Offshore Oil Corporation

CNPC

China National Petroleum Corporation

CNRP

Cambodia National Rescue Party

CPV

Communist Party of Vietnam

CRG

China Railway Group

CSIS

Center for Strategic and International Studies

CSTO

Common Security Treaty Organization

EEU

Eurasian Economic Union

EEZ

exclusive economic zone

EU

European Union

ETIM

East Turkestan Islamic Movement

Exim Bank

Export-Import Bank of China

FDI

foreign direct investment

GDP

gross domestic product

GMS

Greater Mekong Subregion Programme

Guangxi

Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

IBRD

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IMF

International Monetary Fund

IS

Islamic State

KIA

Kachin Independence Army

LTTE

Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam

MDB

multilateral development bank

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NDB

New Development Bank

NDRC

National Development and Reform Commission

NLD

National League for Democracy

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

ONGC

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

PLA

Peoples Liberation Army

PRC

Peoples Republic of China

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