Amin Saikal - Iran at the Crossroads

1. Sources of opposition

For Mary-Lou, Rahima, Samra and Amina

Amin Saikal

polity

Copyright Amin Saikal 2016

The right of Amin Saikal to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published in 2016 by Polity Press

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ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-8568-7

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Saikal, Amin, 1950
Iran at the crossroads / Amin Saikal.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7456-8564-9 (hardback) -- ISBN 978-0-7456-8565-6 (pbk.) 1.Iran--History--1979-1997. 2. Iran--History--1997 3. Islam and state--Iran. 4. Iran--Foreign relations--United States. 5. United States--Foreign relations--Iran. I. Title.
DS318.8.S24 2015

955.054--dc23

2015011699

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The Islamic Republic of Iran has forged a unique system of governance and pursued an unorthodox foreign policy posture in support of this system. The two, in combination with one another, have landed the Republic with many domestic difficulties and foreign policy complications since its advent in 1979. Yet, the Republic has managed to survive all internal and external challenges in an oil-rich but highly turbulent region, where local sectarian and geopolitical rivalries and foreign power interventions have played a key destabilizing role. In fact, although surrounded by active conflicts, especially in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Bahrain, the Iranian theocratic pluralist political order has proved to be more resilient than could originally be anticipated. Whatever ones view of the order, it is now grounded in solid structures, with sufficient resources at its disposal to deal with any domestic disorder or to defy foreign pressures, from the United States and some of its allies in particular.

However, this has come at certain costs for the Iranian people, a majority of whom would have expected to enjoy better living conditions in view of Irans rich human and non-human, especially oil, resources. Many Iranians have grown to be critical of both their government and the West, more specifically the United States, which has subjected Iran to severe sanctions, particularly over the countrys nuclear programme. Meanwhile, a fresh air of optimism has come to grip most Iranians in the era of pragmatist Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama, both of whom have shown a marked desire for a possible USIranian rapprochement.

The Islamic Republic is now indeed positioned at a crossroads. Should its Islamic government under Rouhani succeed in ending the US-led sanctions, based on a comprehensive settlement of Irans nuclear issue, and engage in major domestic and foreign policy reforms, Iran stands to be a very important and constructive regional power a power that could also help the US to be a more effective player in the Middle East. However, if Rouhani fails in his mission, either due to domestic and regional opposition, or because of a similar factor torpedoing Obamas efforts, Iran can be expected to remain impregnated with serious seeds of instability and its region to experience more volatility.

This short book is grounded in my accumulative study of Iranian politics and society, as well as its regional landscape, over a long period of time. I owe much to so many people and institutions in the region and beyond. I cannot mention all of them, as some would not want to be publicly identified. However, it would be remiss of me not to register my sincere thanks to all of them, whether in Iran or elsewhere. Beyond this, I am deeply indebted to my very able research assistant, Stephanie Wright, whose help from the University of California, Santa Barbara, where she is a graduate student, has been instrumental in enabling me to complete this book. I am also thankful to another very bright graduate of the Australian National University (ANU), William Jenkins, who has developed an admirable knowledge of Persian language and Iranian society, for reading the final draft of the manuscript. Similarly, I am grateful to Dr Zahra Taheri for her advice, especially in relation to Iranian history, and to Louise Knight for encouraging me to write this book and to her Polity team, particularly Pascal Porcheron, for handling the logistics of the project.

Further, I must thank past and present professional staff of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), of which I am the director, at the ANU. In this regard, I must mention Kerry Pert, Carol Laslett, Leila Kouatly, Lissette Geronimo, Pamela Lourandos and Anita Mack.

Finally, I owe a world of gratitude to my life partner and friend, Mary-Louise Hickey, whose love and support have made her a rock in whatever I do. As for my three lovely daughters, Rahima, Samra and Amina, they always remain the best I could ever wish for in life.

Note: In this book, the terms jihadi and ijtihadi are used strictly as they are described in the context of Iranian politics, with the first denoting revolutionary/traditionalist/conservative, and the latter meaning reformist/internationalist.

Amil Saikal
Canberra, June 2015

ACCMajma-e Ruhaniyun-e Mobarez [Assembly of Combative Clerics]AIOCAnglo-Iranian Oil CompanyCENTOCentral Treaty OrganizationCIACentral Intelligence AgencyFBIFederal Bureau of InvestigationGCCGulf Cooperation CouncilGDPgross domestic productIAEAInternational Atomic Energy AgencyIRGCSepah-e Pasdaran-e Enqelab-e Islami [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]IRPHezb-e Jomhuri-ye Islami [Islamic Republican Party]ISIslamic StateISILIslamic State of Iraq and the LevantNAMNon-Aligned MovementNPTNuclear Non-Proliferation TreatyOPECOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesSACJameeh-ye Ruhaniyat-e Mobarez [Society of Combatant Clerics]SAVAKSazeman-e Ettelaat va Amniyat-e Keshvar [Organization of National Information and Security]UNUnited Nations

In December 1977, US President Jimmy Carter delivered a speech in Tehran in which he praised the countrys close relations with his own. He described the oil-rich, pro-Western monarchical Iran as an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world. He attributed this stability to the great leadership of the Shah, stating, this is a great tribute to you, Your Majesty, and to your leadership and to the respect and the admiration and love which your people give to you. As it turned out, President Carter spoke too soon about the Western-backed autocrat Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Little more than a year later, the Shah was overthrown in the mass revolution of 1978/79 that gave rise to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeinis Islamic government, and a new Iran with an anti-American and anti-Israeli posture.