Jonathan Fenby - Will China Dominate the 21st Century?

This is a smart, wise, well-written essay which answers with much common sense and learning one of the biggest questions of our time.

Chris Patten, Chancellor of the University of Oxford and former Governor of Hong Kong

An excellent, current guide to the challenges and dangers ahead for modern China. It describes, with verve and insight, why the China Dream may lead to a chilly awakening. Fenby, a delightful writer, explains why China will not dominate the 21st century with compelling critiques and a sharp, clear summary of its economic and political challenges.

Robert B. Zoellick, Former President of the World Bank Group, US Trade Representative and US Deputy Secretary of State

Jonathan Fenby offers a well-informed and balanced assessment of Chinas past and prospects, recognising its remarkable economic achievements but also noting the huge economic, social and political challenges it confronts. China will not, he concludes, dominate the world in the 21st century. He is almost certainly right.

Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator,The Financial Times

An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issues China faces in the immediate future.

Fraser Howie, author ofRed Capitalism:The Fragile Financial Foundation of Chinas Extraordinary Rise

Jonathan Fenby has managed a highly impressive feat: within a short and elegant text, he has pinpointed the real challenges facing China today if it is truly to become a global actor that will play a serious role in the coming century. The insights give us a road-map for what we might expect from this superpower in the making. A compelling and essential read from a premier China analyst.

Rana Mitter, author ofChinas War with Japan, 19371945: The Struggle for Survival

China is a bubble in multiple ways not least in the way its supposed never-ending rise is interpreted and understood in the West. Jonathan Fenby shows courage and insight in pricking the bubble in this important book.

Will Hutton,Observercolumnist and author ofThe Writing on the Wall

Fenbys thoughtful, balanced analysis of what China has achieved, how it has done so, and the challenges ahead is an excellent corrective to the surfeit of overly laudatory and excessively dire assessments of Chinas future and its implications for the world.

Thomas Fingar, Stanford University

In this spirited and insightful book, Jonathan Fenby takes on the China bulls by taking a clear-eyed look at Chinas dysfunctional political system, which does not appear up to the task of tackling the social, legal, economic, environmental, demographic and security challenges facing the country. Highly recommended.

Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University, author ofThe Logic andLimits of Political Reform in China

Fenbys concise, yet comprehensive essay should be the first thing read by anyone with an interest business, political, or intellectual in the future of China.

Charles Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Fenby understands to its deepest roots the nature of Chinese Communist Party rule and its effect throughout society. The Party will, therefore, hate his eloquent and merciless dissection of its entire record and performance. But readers new to China should start right here.

Jonathan Mirsky,Times Higher Education

Leading China commentator Jonathan Fenbys latest book on Chinas position in the world offers a nuanced picture of the countrys strengths and weaknesses.

China Daily

In the flood of books on China, this is one of the most concise and clearly written.

The Age

The development of any country is accompanied by twists and turns. This book is a reminder that it is still too early to position the world at the dawn of a Chinese century.

Global Times

The beauty of Fenbys book is that it is superbly concise; with over 30 years experience of covering China, Fenby is able to distil complex ideas down to their core elements and burnish them with accompanying illustrative anecdotes.

LSE Review of Books

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Second edition

Jonathan Fenby

polity

Copyright Jonathan Fenby 2017

The right of Jonathan Fenby to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First edition published in 2014 by Polity Press
This edition published in 2017 by Polity Press

Polity Press
65 Bridge Street
Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK

Polity Press
350 Main Street
Malden, MA 02148, USA

All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-1100-6

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Fenby, Jonathan, author.
Title: Will China dominate the 21st century? / Jonathan Fenby.
Description: Second edition. | Cambridge, UK ; Malden, MA : Polity Press, 2017. | Series: Global futures series | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016033699 (print) | LCCN 2016035279 (ebook) | ISBN 9781509510962 (hardback) | ISBN 9781509510979 (pbk.) | ISBN 9781509510986 (Epdf) | ISBN 9781509510993 (Mobi) | ISBN 9781509511006 ( Epub)
Subjects: LCSH: China--History--21st century. | China--Economic conditions--2000- | China--Politics and government--21st century.
Classification: LCC DS779.4 .F47 2017 (print) | LCC DS779.4 (ebook) | DDC 303.4951--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016033699

The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.

Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been inadvertently overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.

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With an economy set to be the biggest on earth in a few years, the worlds largest population, an expanding global presence, a modernizing military and an assertively nationalistic one-party regime, China may well seem bound to dominate the present century. Stretching across 3.7 million square miles (99.6 million square kilometres) from the East China Sea to Central Asia, from the Siberian border to the semi-tropical south-west, it has become a major motor of international production and commerce, with an ever-increasingly international political presence as the main beneficiary of globalization.