Zalmay Khalilzad - The United States and a rising China: strategic and military implications
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The United States and a rising China: strategic and military implications
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China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the regions preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager.
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The United States and a Rising China : Strategic and Military Implications
author
:
Khalilzad, Zalmay.
publisher
:
RAND
isbn10 | asin
:
0833027514
print isbn13
:
9780833027511
ebook isbn13
:
9780585245119
language
:
English
subject
China--Armed Forces, United States.--Air Force.
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
UA835.C4493 1999eb
ddc
:
355/.031/09510973
subject
:
China--Armed Forces, United States.--Air Force.
Page i
The United States and a Rising China
Strategic and Military Implications
Zalmay M.Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel L. Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David Shlapak, Ashley J. Tellis
RAND
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Project AIR FORCE
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Page ii
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The United States and a rising China : strategic and military implications / Zalmay Khalilzad... [et al.]. p. cm. "Prepare the the United States Air Force by RAND's Project AIR FORCE." ISBN 0-8330-2751-4 1. ChinaArmed Forces. 2. United States. Air Force. I. Khalilzad, Zalmay. II. RAND Corporation. UA835.C4493 1999 355' .031'09510973dc21 99-35120 CIP
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.
Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form vy any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http//www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002 Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page iii
Preface
This report summarizes the findings of a multiyear project entitled "Chinese Defense Modernization and Its Implications for the United States Air Force." It focuses on the fundamental question of how U.S. policy should deal with China, a rising power that could have the capability, in the not too distant future, of challenging the U.S. position in East Asia and U.S. military, political, and economic access to that dynamic and important region. It then specifically addresses the implications for the U.S. Air Force (USAF), in the areas of shaping the environment, deterrence and warfighting. This summary draws heavily on the other work conducted in the course of the study. The results of some of this work have been, or will soon be, published in other RAND documents.
This project is being conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO) and the Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This report should be of interest to members of the national security community and to interested members of the general public. Comments are welcomed and may be addressed to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad.
Project Air Force
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Page iv
Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine
Page v
Contents
Preface
iii
Figure and Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xix
Glossary
xxi
Chapter One Introduction
1
Chapter Two Determinants of Chinese National SecurityBehavior
3
Determinants of Policy During the "Modernization" Period
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