Campbell - Nigeria: dancing on the brink

Nigeria

A COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS BOOK

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC.

Lanham Boulder New York Toronto Plymouth, UK

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Campbell, John, 1944

Nigeria : dancing on the brink / John Campbell.

p. cm.

A Council on Foreign Relations book.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4422-2156-7 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-2157-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-2158-1 (electronic) 1. NigeriaPolitics and government2007 2. NigeriaEconomic conditions1970 3. Social conflictNigeria. 4. Ethnic conflictNigeria. I. Title.

JQ3090.C36 2013

966.9054dc23

2013008131

TM The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.

Printed in the United States of America

Nigeria, home to about 20 percent of the people living in Africa south of the Sahara, has a population about the size of the Russian Federations. The United States is increasingly dependent on it for imported oil and natural gas, though that could change as its own oil and gas production increases with the new oil shale technologies. Nigerias government contributes large numbers of troops to United Nations and other peacekeeping operations, and it has lobbied vigorously for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. A regional leader, Nigeria is one of the founders of the African Union and is the linchpin of the Economic Community of West African States.

With its large population, natural resource endowment, and tradition of international engagement, Nigeria was perhaps the most important African strategic partner of George W. Bushs administration. But Nigeria at present faces challenges that put its partnership with the United States at risk, and Nigerias international role has declined under presidents Umaru YarAdua and Goodluck Jonathan.

In the Niger Delta, the heartland of Nigerias natural resource wealth, an insurgency against the federal government continues despite an amnesty now more than two years old. In the North, currents of radical Islam have taken hold, and bloody uprisings against government authorities are increasing in frequency. Ostensibly a democracy since the end of military dictatorship in 1998, executive authority in Abuja was paralyzed by the illness and subsequent death of the president, Umaru YarAdua, in May 2010.

President Jonathan successfully ran for election in 2011, thereby ending the informal arrangement under which the presidency alternated between candidates from the South and the North, exacerbating the latters alienation from the Abuja government and encouraging the rise of radical Islam. Growing numbers of Nigerians, not just in the North, are alienated from their government and believe their nation is failing as a state.

For a country of such importance, Nigeria is little known in the United States. Only one book intended for the nonspecialist reader has appeared in English in the past decade, Karl Maiers This House Has Fallen: Nigeria in Crisis (2002). Few Americans visit. Internal travel is difficult with the deterioration of Nigerias infrastructure and escalating violence. My hope is that Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink will introduce the nonspecialist reader to the complexity and challenges of contemporary Nigeria and foster an appreciation for those Nigerians working against state failure in Africas most important country.

Despite the regular abrogation of the rule of law, the high levels of violence, and official corruption and incompetence, Nigerians regard themselves as fundamentally free, and they have never been afraid to express their opinions, even during the years of military dictatorship. And they like to talk to foreign diplomats. Much of this book is based on conversations and personal experiences I had during my thirty months (February 1988 through July 1990) as political counselor based in Lagos and my thirty-eight months as ambassador (May 2004 through July 2007) in Abuja. This second edition addresses Nigerian developments since the death of President YarAdua.

In Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, I argue that U.S. policy makers should pay greater attention to Nigerias internal developments, which affect its ability to partner with the United States. With its other preoccupations, the United States can play only a marginal role in Nigeria. At the time the first edition appeared, there were hopeful developments. Alas, Nigeria faces even greater challenges now, and this edition has two new chapters, one on political developments and the other on the grassroots radical Islamic insurgency in the North called Boko Haram. I close the book with modest policy recommendations as to what the Obama administration might do to support Nigerians working for democracy and the rule of law.

I knew nothing firsthand about Africa until the U.S. Foreign Service quixotically transferred me from Geneva to Lagos in 1988. My sole African experience had been a stop at the Dakar airport during a flight from London to Buenos Aires. Once I arrived in Nigeria, however, Ambassador Princeton N. Lyman patiently introduced me to Africas fascinating complexities. Ever since, he has been a source of encouragement and wisdom.