Kupchan - How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace

HOW
ENEMIES
BECOME
FRIENDS

PRINCETON STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL HISTORY AND POLITICS
G. John Ikenberry and Marc Trachtenberg, SERIES EDITORS

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THE SOURCES OF STABLE PEACE

Charles A. Kupchan

A Council on Foreign Relations Book

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON AND OXFORD

Copyright 2010 by Princeton University Press

Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock,
Oxfordshire OX20 1TW

All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Kupchan, Charles.
How enemies become friends : the sources of stable peace / Charles A. Kupchan.
p. cm. (Princeton studies in international history and politics) (Council on foreign relations book)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-691-14265-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Peaceful change (International relations)
2. Peace-building. 3. International relations21st century. 4. World politics21st century.
5. National security. 6. Balance of power. I. Title.
JZ5538.K87 2010
303.66dc22
2009024769

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

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1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2

For Nicholas and his generation
May they know only peace

FIGURES

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I began to ponder the central themes of this book about a decade ago, prompted by two emerging trends. The first was the ongoing diffusion of power in the international system. This development begged the question of whether the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world could occur peacefully. The second was the growing divide between the United States and Europe, a rift that became apparent during the late 1990s and was then brought to a head by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The resulting acrimony opened the possibility that the political community forged by the Atlantic democracies during the second half of the twentieth century might falter and again fall prey to geopolitical rivalry.

I began to address these changes in international politics in my last two books. In 2001, my co-authors and I published Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order, a volume that explicitly addressed how to manage shifts in global power. I am indebted to my collaborators: Emanuel Adler, Jean-Marc Coicaud, and Yuen Foong Kong. Jason Davidson and Mira Sucharov contributed a chapter, as well as valuable research assistance. United Nations University published the book and provided financial support. I continued my exploration of global change in The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century (Knopf, 2002). This book focused on the changing nature of American internationalism and transatlantic relations, the waning of U.S. primacy, and the onset of a multipolar world.

Both of these volumes helped lay the intellectual foundations for this book. Exploring how and when states are able to manage change peacefully and escape the dictates of geopolitical rivalry led me to the question, at once simple and profound, that is at the core of this work: How do enemies become friends?

My two home institutions, Georgetown University and the Council on Foreign Relations, provided ideal settings for exploring this question. My colleagues and students at Georgetown offered a vibrant community in which to try out new ideas and explore the historical cases. Robert Gallucci, the former dean of the School of Foreign Service, provided consistent encouragement as well as generous research support. My colleagues at the Council on Foreign Relations were similarly helpful and stimulating, offering a venue for testing my analysis and conclusions within the policy community. I am indebted to Council on Foreign Relations president, Richard N. Haass, for his personal and institutional support, and for the thoughtful comments he provided on the draft manuscript.