Larry L. Orr - Program Applicants As a Comparison Group in Evaluating Training Programs: Theory and a Test
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Program Applicants As a Comparison Group in Evaluating Training Programs: Theory and a Test
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Program Applicants as a Comparison Group in Evaluating Training Programs
Theory and a Test
Stephen H. Bell Abt Associates Inc.
Larry L. Orr Abt Associates Inc.
John D. Blomquist Abt Associates Inc.
Glen G. Cain University of WisconsinMadison
1995
Page ii
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Program applicants as a comparison group in evaluating training programs : theory and a test / Stephen H. Bell... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-88099-158-5 (cloth : alk. paper).ISBN 0-88099-157-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. EmployeesTraining ofEvaluationEconometric models. I. Bell, Stephen M. II. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. HF5549.5.T7P73 1995 658.3'12404dc20 95-37399 CIP
Copyright 1995 W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research 300 S. Westnedge Avenue Kalamazoo, Michigan 490074686
The facts presented in this study and the observations and viewpoints expressed are the sole responsibility of the authors. They do not necessarily represent positions of the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
Cover design by J. R. Underhill Index prepared by Shirley Kessel. Printed in the United States of America.
Page iii
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the Upjohn Institute and its staff for their support of this study. We are particularly grateful to the Institute's former executive director Robert Spiegelman and its assistant executive director H. Allan Hunt for allowing us the time required to obtain the necessary data and work through the many difficult conceptual issues involved in the study. The research staff of the Institute also provided valuable feedback on the monograph in a seminar in September 1994. We are indebted to Robert Spiegelman, Thomas Fraker, and three anonymous reviewers for insightful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts.
The study also benefited substantially from technical review at Abt provided by Stephen Kennedy, Chief Social Scientist, whose advice on statistical matters was particularly valuable. Other Abt staff who contributed to the monograph were Winston Lin (who made useful comments on portions of the volume), Annirudha Bonnerjee (who programmed the algorithm for the risk functions presented in chapter 4), and Margie Washington (who provided secretarial support throughout the project). Michael Tilkin, a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, assisted in the estimation of impacts.
Finally, the authors are indebted to the Health Care Financing Administration of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which funded the AFDC Homemaker-Home Health Aide Demonstrations on which the empirical analysis is based. We should also thank the Office of Income Statistics of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, which provided long-term follow-up data for the homemaker sample.
This monograph is the end product of several years of collaboration among the authors, beginning with the summer of 1991 which Cain spent at Abt helping to develop the overall structure of the analysis. Chapter 1 was written by Bell and Cain and chapter 2 by Orr, Bell, and Cain. Blomquist was the principal author of chapter 3 and performed the empirical analysis presented in that chapter; the chapter builds on an empirical analysis by Cain presented to the 1993 meetings of the American Economics Association. The validation techniques presented in chapter 4 were developed by Bell and Orr. Chapter 5 was a joint effort by all four authors.
Page iv
The Authors
Stephen H. Bell is a senior economist and project director at Abt Associates Inc. in Bethesda, Maryland. His research focuses on econometric methods for public policy evaluation, including measurement of program impacts using classical experiments and nonexperimental methods. His most recent publications appear in the Journal of Human Resources (on the cost-effectiveness of training welfare recipients) and the Social Security Bulletin (on employment programs for people with disabilities). Upcoming titles include a book on the National JTPA Study and papers on validating nonexperimental impact estimates and designing employment services for recently released prisoners. Dr. Bell received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of WisconsinMadison.
Larry L. Orr is a senior economist and vice president at Abt Associates Inc. in Bethesda, Maryland. His research interest include the analysis of public policy issues using experimental methods and the evaluation of employment and training programs; he has participated in the design of more than twenty randomized field experiments. Dr. Orr was project director of the recently completed National JTPA Study and the evaluation of the AFDC Homemaker-Home Health Aide Demonstrations and serves on the editorial board of the journal Evaluation and Program Planning. From 1991 to 1993, he was a member of the National Academy of Science Committee on Postsecondary Education and Training. Prior to joining Abt, he directed the Office of Technical Analysis, U.S. Department of Labor, and the Office of Income Security Policy Research, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Dr. Orr received his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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