Kathryn E. Stoner - Russia Resurrected

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Stoner, Kathryn, 1965 author.

Title: Russia resurrected : its power and purpose in a new global order /

Kathryn Stoner, Stanford University.

Description: New York : Oxford University Press, 2021. |

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2020040284 (print) | LCCN 2020040285 (ebook) |

ISBN 9780190860714 (hardback) | ISBN 9780190860738 (epub) |

ISBN 9780190054571

Subjects: LCSH: Russia (Federation)Foreign relations21st century. |

Russia (Federation)Politics and government1991 |

Russia (Federation)Economic conditions1991 |

Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952Influence. | Russia (Federation)Forecasting. |

International relationsForecasting.

Classification: LCC DK510.764 .S76 2021 (print) | LCC DK510.764 (ebook) |

DDC 327.47dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020040284

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020040285

For my parents,

Joan Boyd and Norman Stoner,

with gratitude for inspiring a love of learning in me

In just 30 years, we have undergone changes that took centuries in other countries.

Vladimir Putin, March 1, 2018, Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly

This book began on a bus in Novgorod Oblast (province) in Russia in September 2013. I was at a conference and as part of the program, our hosts took us to a monastery as part of a cultural break from our meetings. I had the pleasure of sitting next to a Russian colleague on the bus, a younger specialist in Russian foreign policy. We chatted amicably about the conference and the surrounding countryside, and eventually the conversation turned to the emerging hostility between our two countries. What, I asked him, is the point of Putins foreign policy these days? His reply both surprised and amused me: Oh, thats easy! he said To beat you.

I was amused because he evidently didnt know that I am actually Canadian by birth, although I do hold dual citizenship with the United States. As an international power, Russia surely outpaced Canada at the time. But his reply also surprised me because in the United States, Russia was not seen as a peer power at the time, and it struck me that policy makers back in Washington would not have considered Russia a particularly capable global challenger in 2013.

I returned to the United States a few days later intent on seeing exactly where and how Russia could beat us in international politics. As my research progressed, and as I attended seminars at Stanford University, my home base, and conferences in Washington, DC, I came to realize that American political and military leaders I spoke with mostly dismissed Russia as either a regional power or, as one prominent member of the intelligence community said, like North Korea; that is, Russias at the little table but it wants to be at the big table with us and Europe and China. Problem is, its just not there. My research, however, was beginning to demonstrate already that this sort of assessment of Russian capabilities was outdated. It would also prove calamitous as subsequent events demonstrated not least of which was Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. But beyond that, since Vladimir Putins return to the presidency in 2012, Russia appeared to outfox the West at every turn. I wondered how and why, and this study of Russias resurrection as a global power is the result. The sober assessment it provides aims to convince the reader that under Putins autocratic regime, Russian capabilities are beginning to approach its global aspirations.

This study could not have been completed without the opportunities that I have gained from my position as a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. The intellectual environment in our seminars, and the brain trust in our building, Encina Hall, proved invaluable to bringing this project to completion. I am particularly indebted to Ambassador Michael McFaul, the Institutes Director, for his patience in listening to me talk about this book for several years, providing me with the time to actually write it, and his insightful comments on the draft manuscript. Thanks also to my other Stanford colleagues Chip Blacker, David Holloway, Stephen Krasner and Larry Diamond for attending and commenting upon various presentations that I gave on the book here at Stanford. I owe a great deal of gratitude too to my colleague Francis Fukuyama for helping me to think more deeply about the concept of power, as well as to John Dunlop, and Anna Grzymala-Busse for their careful reads of the manuscript, occasional corrections and vital suggestions for improvement. Condoleeza Rice and Sheri Berman (at Barnard College) read the prospectus for this book and I am grateful for their enthusiasm for the project and encouragement. Secretary Rice also generously shared some of her insights into the younger Vladimir Putin and her experiences as Secretary of State with a few other members of his foreign policy apparatus. Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO generously reviewed . Colleagues in Russia like Dmitri Trenin, Andrei Kortunov, and Fyodor Lukyanov (among others) were extremely patient in explaining the Russian perspective on global politics.

Back at Stanford, Tiffany Zhu provided outstanding research assistance in the final stages of research and Alice Underwood provided fantastic editing and thoughtful suggestions as well as good cheer as the project finally came to conclusion. My students in POLISCI 213C Understanding Russia in the winter quarter of 2020 were among the initial readers of the manuscript and their feedback made for a more comprehensible book to be sure.

Finally, on the home front, my deepest thanks to my wonderful husband, Paul Oyer, who was a constant source of encouragement and irrepressible humor. Thank you as well to our children (David Oyer, Lucy Oyer, Adam Weiss and Abby Weiss) for their patience as I wrote this book. They learned far more about Russia than they probably ever wanted to know! The COVID-19 pandemic brought Abby and Lucy even closer to this project at the bitter end as they were forced to come home to shelter in place. I owe them a special thanks for their provision of coffee (both hot and iced) from our favorite place to keep me tapping away at the keyboard happily.